Here's a pattern I've watched play out twice in the last five years.
Each phase of the AI build has had a bottleneck. And each time, I later realized the market was looking in the wrong place.
Year | Consensus said | Actual bottleneck | What happened next |
|---|---|---|---|
2021 | Software | Compute | Nvidia +1,000% |
2023 | GPUs | Memory | Micron 3x · SK Hynix 4x (so far) |
2026 | GPU clusters | ??? | ??? |
These examples are for illustrative purposes only, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Identifying such shifts is uncertain and may involve significant risk and volatility.
Both times, capital piled into the headline. Both times, the real move was in whatever the headline couldn't function without.
It's 2026. One of the biggest infrastructure buildouts in history is adding compute at a pace nobody predicted two years ago. Consensus is still watching the GPUs.
I think the market is making the same mistake again.
The bottleneck has moved. And most people haven't noticed yet.
- Matt
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