Here’s the tell: when mining CEOs start talking “mega-mergers,” they aren’t chasing ego — they’re chasing copper. The Rio Tinto–Glencore talks are the headline, but copper is the plot.

Why? Because AI isn’t just a software revolution — it’s an electricity revolution… and electricity is a copper-intensive business. Data centers don’t run on “tokens.” They run on power delivery, transformers, switchgear, cabling, grounding, cooling systems, and grid upgrades — all of which quietly pull copper demand forward. The credible long-range math is ugly: S&P Global’s work frames a world where copper demand rises toward ~42 million metric tons by 2040 (~+50% vs today), driven by electrification plus new load (including data centers).

And the supply side doesn’t cooperate on a neat timeline — because copper isn’t like software. You can’t “ship an update.” You have to permit it, finance it, dig it, process it, and move it… which is why S&P Global also highlights a looming multi‑million‑ton supply gap if investment doesn’t accelerate.

That’s why deals are back. M&A is the market admitting it doesn’t have time: new mines take a long time, grades are declining in key basins, and the world is simultaneously trying to (1) electrify transportation, (2) rebuild grids, (3) build AI factories, and (4) spend more on defense — all copper-heavy activities.

The “AI trade” is no longer just Nvidia and friends. It’s the whole physical stack beneath the cloud.

AI capex + electrification + defense → grid buildout + data centers → copper demand pull-forward → supply can’t respond quickly → prices/asset values rise → miners consolidate to lock resources

And the investing implication is simple:

Copper is one of the most important of those inputs.

1) Copper-heavy miners & developers (the owners of the scarce asset)
If the market is entering a multi-year “copper scarcity premium,” the first-order winners are the miners with:

Watchlist buckets (examples):

2) “U.S. copper” becomes strategic
Copper being treated more like a strategic material (not just a commodity) matters. The USGS has been moving toward a “critical minerals” framing that can influence permitting, financing incentives, and political will. If that accelerates, domestic copper projects get a narrative tailwind (and sometimes real policy support).

This is where a lot of people miss the trade. If copper is tight, miners don’t just print money — they spend money. And that spending flows to the “arms dealers” of mining.

1) Mining equipment & mine-services (the copper capex toll collectors)

Watchlist examples:

2) Engineering & buildout ecosystem (the “we build the mine” trade)
If the world tries to close a copper supply gap, it requires:

Watchlist examples:

3) Scrap + recycling (the stealth winner if prices stay high)
High prices pull supply from the shadows. Scrap collection gets incentivized. Recycling capacity becomes more valuable. (This tends to be a quieter but real second-order effect.)

1) Copper-intensive manufacturers with weak pass-through
If copper stays elevated, somebody eats it. The losers are the businesses that can’t pass through input inflation quickly, especially those with fixed-price contracts or intense competition.

Pressure points:

2) Data center build costs rise (even if AI demand is booming)
Copper is part of the data center bill of materials, and grid interconnect is copper-heavy. If copper trends higher, it makes “AI capex” more expensive, which tightens ROI math and can pressure:

(Important nuance: this doesn’t kill AI — it changes who captures the economics.)

3) Smelters/refiners can be a “depends” trade
When concentrate is tight, treatment charges can compress (bad for smelters), but tight markets can also produce dislocations/opportunities. This bucket is more microstructure and contract-driven than the “own the mine” trade.

The Rio–Glencore headline is just a symptom. The disease (for buyers) / opportunity (for owners) is bigger:

Copper is becoming a strategic constraint.
And the moment a commodity becomes a constraint, it stops trading like a commodity and starts trading like a bottleneck.

A lot of data this week, and a lot going on over the weekend. This week we have CPI and PPI, and bank earnings start. Typically not a fan of banks, but they’ve been kicking ass lately.

On the policy front, Trump is proposing to lower credit card interest rates to 10%. We said last week that with the midterms looming he’s going to do whatever he can to tackle affordability. Then you had this….

This could actually backfire on Trump and keep Powell around longer. Futures were down a bit before this got announced, they are down much more now. Rates are higher, and financials are getting crushed (credit card thing doesn’t help them either). Precious metals are rallying and Bitcoin is holding above 90K.

Today’s stock is The Trade Desk (TTD)……

After a bruising 2025 for a lot of ad tech, TTD is shaping up as one of the cleaner “AI + operating leverage” rebounds if digital ad demand stays resilient. The core bull case isn’t “ads are back” — it’s that Connected TV keeps taking share and brands increasingly want independent, cross-publisher measurement and decisioning rather than living inside a single walled garden. TTD is one of the few scaled platforms positioned as the neutral layer across premium CTV supply, open internet display/video, and (increasingly) retail data partnerships. If you believe the next leg of advertising is algorithmic budget allocation across channels (with creative, audience, and bidding decisions happening in real time), then TTD is one of the most direct public-market expressions of that shift.

Why 2026 could look better than the tape implies:
Two tailwinds matter: (1) the “product digestion” risk from last year’s platform transition (Kokai rollout issues / workflow change) should fade as customers normalize usage and the company laps tougher comps, and (2) the calendar improves — major events plus a ramp into the midterm cycle can create real incremental dollars, especially in CTV and programmatic. Importantly, TTD’s opportunity isn’t just cyclical ad recovery; it’s mix shift toward higher-value inventory (CTV) where identity/measurement/optimization matter more, and where “who can drive outcomes” wins share over time.

What we’re watching (the tells):
The bull case gets validated if we see (a) accelerating spend from large agencies/brands as Kokai becomes a default workflow (not a pilot), (b) continued CTV share gains with improving monetization and measurement (less “experiment,” more “budget line item”), and (c) proof that retail data + identity solutions are driving incrementality without margin erosion. The bear case is basically: walled gardens compress the open-internet take, CTV supply stays fragmented/opaque, or advertisers pull back and TTD’s operating leverage works in reverse. Net: TTD is a “watch closely” name because if execution is clean, it can re-rate quickly — but the stock will only earn that re-rating if the product transition shows up in spend acceleration and not just good narrative.

The H.E.A.T. (Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry and Theme) Formula is designed to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth.

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