In Today’s Issue:

• Launching 2x GME and 2x SNOW

• Louis Navellier on the Rebel Podcast

• Trump’s Plan for the Economy and How it Impacts Your Investments Today

• Why this market is so tough

• Are we close to a trade deal with China?

• Why low volatility ETFs suck

• Deep dive on Agentic AI

• and more……..

Announcements

Today we launch 2x GME (GMEU) and 2x SNOW (SNOU)

At 11:30AM EST the Rebel Finance Podcast will have Louis Navellier as our guest. Anyone old like me will remember Louis.

Our Webinar is Also Today

Trump’s Plan For the Economy and How It Impacts Your Investments

Thursday April 24, 2-3pm EST

Register

News & Noise

🧠 News:

❌ Noise:

What Wall Street Is Saying

We are going to have a lot more to say about this deal, stay tuned.

Mike O’Rourke, Jones Trading…..

Mohit Kumar, Jefferies…..

Jefferies Daily Macro….

UBS Equity Strategy…..

Are We Close to a Trade Deal With China?

Tuesday night Trump came out and said that tariffs on China will be less than what had previously been reported. Markets took it as capitulation by Trump, then today Bessent says the above. This caused markets to close way off the highs, but it was a rally day pretty much regardless of what happened.

Are we close to a deal or not? No idea. I continue to say I think the lows are in, I think this market is tradeable, but it’s a pain in the ass.

Stuff like this is also a pain in the ass…..

I am continuing to slowly add equity exposure. I often compare investing to Blackjack and Poker, and in Blackjack I slowly ramp up my bet size when the dealer seems to have a run of going bust. Same deal here, as I said above, I do think the lows are in, and it looks like things are starting to turn bullish. I think a lot of that is because the main messaging is now coming from Bessent and not Lutnick or Navarro….

However, we are nowhere near being able to say the odds are in your favor to go long in any size.

Gold is back up this morning, Treasuries are up, and Bitcoin is selling off a drop. My main focus is still in those three areas.

GOOGL kicks off Mag 7 earnings tonight.

Are Low Volatility ETFs a Smart Long-Term Bet?

Had CNBC on in the background the other day and they couldn’t stop gushing about low volatility ETFs. Low volatility is a factor, something along with some other factors —-momentum, quality, value, etc that was discovered in research to have outperformed the market over time. I’m not a fan of factor investing, primarily because I think once Wall Street discovers and edge then it gets arbed out and is no longer an edge. I had GPT take a deeper dive on low volatility…….

🌟 The Narrative: Low Volatility ETFs Are Having Their Moment

In 2025, low volatility ETFs like $SPLV and $USMV have been outperforming broader market cap-weighted benchmarks. Why? Because:

• They hold tariff-insulated, domestic-facing stocks

• They avoid much of the Magnificent 7 (which are more exposed to AI capex cycles and global trade uncertainty)

• Investors are rotating defensively amid volatility, trade war risk, and Fed drama

But here's the problem: They’ve massively underperformed over longer timeframes.

🧨 Low Volatility ETFs – What Are They, Really?

Low volatility ETFs track baskets of stocks with historically lower price fluctuations, typically measured via standard deviation. These ETFs include:

• $SPLV (Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF)

• $USMV (iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility ETF)

• $XMLV, $EFAV, $XSLV and others across geographies and sectors

They tend to be:

• Overweight utilities, staples, healthcare, REITs

• Underweight tech, discretionary, communication services

• Lower beta and lower drawdowns, but also lower upside participation

🌐 2025 YTD Snapshot: Low Volatility Winning

• Vol-sensitive traders are seeking shelter from tariff noise and Powell-Trump chaos

• These ETFs are less exposed to global cyclicals, semis, and China-sensitive megacaps

🧠 But the Long-Term? Low Vol Has Lagged

Over the past 10 years:

• $SPLV has underperformed SPY by nearly 50% cumulatively

• Sharpe ratios are often lower than expected due to performance drag in bull markets

• They tend to lag in growth-driven environments, reflation cycles, and innovation booms

🔎 The Real Problem: Factor Arbitrage

Low volatility used to be an obscure anomaly. Now it’s a $50B+ asset class. Factor investors, quant funds, and retail allocators have piled in.

This inflows=alpha decay dynamic has:

• Compressed the valuation edge

• Crowded the trade (especially in defensive sectors)

• Made it more sensitive to macro sentiment shifts and interest rate cycles

Once "low vol" becomes consensus, it starts acting more like a bond proxy than an alpha source.

🌐 So What Do We Do?

🔋 Tactical Suggestions:

1. Use Low Volatility ETFs for Short-Term Defense Only

   • Great for uncertain macro regimes (like 2025)

   • But treat them as trades, not long-term allocations

2. Overlay With Tail Risk or Smart Beta Hedges

   • Add ARKK or QQQ puts to protect against equity shocks

   • Combine with gold, Bitcoin, or commodities as structural hedges

3. Replace With Quality + Value + Low Debt Screens

   • Instead of blindly chasing low vol, build custom baskets of:

     • High free cash flow

     • Low debt-to-equity

     • Domestic-revenue-heavy stocks

     • Avoid heavy bond proxy exposure

4. Long/Short Low Vol vs High Beta Pairs

   • Consider a factor rotation play:

     • Long $SPLV, short $SPHB when vol is rising

     • Reverse that in soft-landing or reflation environments

5. Revisit When Macro Shifts

   • If rate volatility collapses and risk appetite returns, low vol will lag hard

   • Be ready to pivot back to cyclicals, AI, and global growth

🏛 Final Word: Low Volatility Isn't a Hedge. It's a Trade.

If you're buying $SPLV or $USMV thinking you're being defensive and smart, you might just be buying a different type of beta.

The best strategy in a high-vol, policy-fractured market? Flexibility.

AI Agents and the Intelligent Software Economy

ARK just wrote a report on AI agents, an area of great interest to me and one where we have an ETF coming soon.

One of the powerful uses of AI is to have it analyze research reports like this, provide take aways, and create watch lists, so I fed it into GPT and had it analyze this report….

🤖 ARK's Bold Take: AI Agents Will Reshape Everything

ARK's latest research lays out a sweeping thesis: AI agents aren't just another layer on top of software—they're a full-blown paradigm shift. Think cloud computing in 2007. Think smartphones in 2010. AI agents could have that kind of impact across enterprise software, consumer applications, and R&D workflows.

ARK defines AI agents as autonomous systems capable of:

• Interpreting natural language

• Independently reasoning and executing tasks

• Continuously learning and adapting

The economic implications? Massive. ARK suggests we could see the largest software reinvention since the cloud.

🔍 Where We Agree

1. Enterprise AI Agents Will Replace "One-Size-Fits-None" Software

ARK highlights Palantir (PLTR) as the poster child for customizable enterprise AI platforms. We agree. AIP is already helping governments and corporations build internal agents that automate logistics, detect fraud, and model risk. This isn’t future state—it’s happening now.

2. Agent-Based Consumer Apps Are Inevitable

From Shopify (SHOP) to Klarna, AI agents that combine search, recommendation, and execution are making old-school apps look clunky. The migration from static apps to proactive digital assistants is just beginning.

3. Scientific Discovery Will Be the Next Frontier

Biotech and drug discovery are ripe for AI agents. Companies like Recursion (RXRX) and Absci (ABSI) are already redefining the speed and cost of drug development. ARK is right: traditional pharma is getting left behind.

📊 Winners and Losers: Ranked 1–10

🏆 Top Winners: (10 = massive AI agent upside)

❌ Potential Losers

📈 Monetization Models to Watch

• Agent-as-a-Service (AaaS): Subscriptions with usage-based overages (Replit-style)

• Autonomous Commerce: Agents complete transactions on your behalf (e.g., travel, groceries, investing)

• Agent Marketplaces: Think App Store for intelligent tasks and workflows

These will reshape everything from SaaS pricing to e-commerce to enterprise licensing.

🏛 Takeaway

AI agents aren’t an extension of software. They are a replacement.

• They will redefine what software means in every vertical

• Investors should focus on AI-native platforms (not incumbents trying to bolt on LLMs)

• Biotech, enterprise, and consumer commerce will be the early monetization zones

Before you go: Here are ways I can help

‍

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