Bad Jobs = Good News? Why the Fed May Be Cornered

The 🔥H.E.A.T.🔥 Formula : AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio

In Today’s Issue:

  • Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF

  • Our Next Webinar—-Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine

  • Bad Jobs = Good News? Why the Fed May Be Cornered

  • Drones, Defense, and the Next Trump Executive Order – The Coming Boom in the “Sky War” Economy

  • Wells Unleashed: The $400 Billion Threat to Regional Banks

  • and more……..

Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine

Thu, Jun 26, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT

- Two strategies to tap into Washington's grift with limited risk and unlimited upside

- How to use AI to recognize the next top themes before the "smart money" does.

- My simple hedging strategy that takes advantage of the real "dumb money" on Wall Street

To register:

Bad Jobs = Good News? Why the Fed May Be Cornered

Weak ADP data put a damper on the market a bit yesterday. Bond yields fell as traders no doubt thought this might force the Fed’s hand. Still staying away from bonds at the moment as I worry that the fiscal situation puts a cap on any gains. You also have to wonder how much impact the tariff uncertainty will have on the Fed’s timing.

So we watch Friday’s jobs report with great interest as a weaker than expected number could be a game changer.

Kind of agree with Mohit here, path of least resistance for stocks does seem to be up. I’ve been back to putting small amounts of money to work each day, trying to find the next big theme.

For risky assets, both valuation and macro would argue for caution. Our base case is one of slowing down in the data over coming months. However, the one factor that continues to argue in favour of risky assets is positioning. Our indices suggest that positioning is still mild which would be a tailwind for risky assets. With cash sitting on the sideline, we see the path of least resistance as still higher for risky assets.

Mohit Kumar, Jefferies

The Trump’s Inner Circle theme has taken some bumps. You have to wonder if Elon is still in the inner circle….

I exited TSLA when it broke the 10 day anyway.

CLBR has also gotten crushed the past two days (top holding in SPCX)…

Just remember….

Speaking of the next theme, I think it could be drones (more below). One name that spans the Trump’s Inner Circle and drone themes is UMAC…..

From GPT…..

Yes, Donald Trump Jr. is officially a member of the advisory board at Unusual Machines Inc. (NYSE American: UMAC), a U.S.-based drone and drone components manufacturer. His appointment was announced on November 27, 2024, and he is also reported to be the company's second-largest shareholder, holding over 330,000 shares.

Unusual Machines is positioning itself as a key player in the U.S. drone industry, focusing on domestic manufacturing to reduce reliance on foreign-made products, particularly from China. The company has recently launched products like the Brave F7 FPV Flight Controller and aims to be a dominant Tier-1 parts supplier in the growing U.S. drone market.

Trump Jr.'s involvement aligns with the company's mission to bring drone manufacturing jobs back to the USA and strengthen domestic supply chains. His role is expected to provide strategic advice and leverage his business network to support Unusual Machines' growth and expansion in the drone sector.

Given the increasing emphasis on domestic drone production and the geopolitical focus on reducing dependence on Chinese technology, Unusual Machines, with Trump Jr.'s backing, could be well-positioned to benefit from potential future executive orders or policies aimed at bolstering the U.S. drone industry.

Drones, Defense, and the Next Trump Executive Order – The Coming Boom in the “Sky War” Economy

“The age of the drone is no longer coming—it’s here. And it’s about to become the most investable corner of defense tech since the invention of GPS.”

That’s the story behind the Trump administration’s quiet redirection of critical antidrone technology from Ukraine to U.S. forces. It’s not just a geopolitical pivot—it’s a flashing neon sign that drones, and the systems designed to counter them, are now central to U.S. defense planning.

And it points to one unmistakable trend: the drone-industrial complex is about to enter hyperdrive.

🛰 The Real Takeaway From Trump’s Fuze Transfer

On the surface, this looks like Washington bureaucracy playing favorites. But under the hood, what’s happening is far more telling:

The Pentagon is deprioritizing Ukraine and rearming U.S. forces in the Middle East with Advanced Precision Kill Weapon Systems—retrofit rocket tech designed to neutralize drones cheaply and quickly.

This pivot signals that:

  • Trump’s next executive order could directly address drone production, countermeasures, or export acceleration.

  • The Middle East, not Ukraine, is now the primary theater for drone warfare.

  • The U.S. military is preparing for drone saturation scenarios—think Houthi and Iranian swarms, not just rogue strikes.

⚠️ The Coming Drone Crisis — And Windfall

While AI gets all the headlines, drones are the overlooked power play in both AI warfare and defense modernization. Just like semiconductors in the AI boom, drones are about to become the bottleneck in the modern battlefield.

And that spells opportunity for early investors who know where to look.

The systems being redirected—like the Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) with proximity fuzes—are cheap, scalable, and exactly what the DoD wants more of. They’re already being mounted on F-16s and F-15s for one reason: sidewinder missiles are too expensive.

🧨 Winners: The Drone Arms Race Beneficiaries

Here’s who benefits directly as Trump pivots toward drones and hypersonics:

Company

Ticker

Role

Rating

Anduril

Private (watch IPO)

Antidrone & autonomous defense platforms

🔟

Kratos Defense

KTOS

Drone swarm tech, hypersonics, and directed energy systems

9

AeroVironment

AVAV

Loitering munitions (Switchblade drones), ISR

8.5

Teledyne FLIR

TDY

Drone sensors, surveillance, thermal optics

8

Lockheed Martin

LMT

Integrator of drone systems & interceptors (SkyKeeper, Valkyrie)

8

Northrop Grumman

NOC

Long-range surveillance drones, ISR

7.5

RTX

RTX

Interceptor tech & radar systems (e.g. GhostEye MR)

7

Wildcard: Palantir (PLTR)—AI-enabled drone analytics, battlefield automation (7.5)

❌ Losers: Left Behind by the Drone Surge

Company

Sector

Why They Lose

European defense firms (e.g. BAE, Thales)

NATO delays, no drone production focus

General Dynamics

Traditional armored vehicle-heavy portfolio

Legacy missile-only suppliers

Losing ground to lower-cost drone countermeasures

đź§­ What Comes Next: Executive Order Watch

There is a growing likelihood that Trump’s next executive order targets drone supply chains. Why?

  1. The administration already named drones a strategic priority via DARPA and DoD planning.

  2. Current capacity can’t meet projected demand across U.S. bases, allies, and export partners.

  3. Swarm attacks in the Red Sea, Ukraine, and potentially Taiwan make this a 2025 issue—not 2030.

🎯 Final Take

Betting against drones in this cycle is like shorting semiconductors in 1993.

This isn’t just about Ukraine or Iran. It’s about a new doctrine of warfare built on autonomy, swarm intelligence, and precision kill-chains. And the U.S. just tipped its hand: we’re going all-in.

The right stocks—those that make the platforms, fuzes, optics, AI overlays, and sensors—could double or triple over the next 12–24 months as DoD spending accelerates and allies rush to catch up.

The war of the future won’t be fought with tanks. It’ll be fought with airborne software.

Now’s the time to position.

Wells Unleashed: The $400 Billion Threat to Regional Banks

As you know I’m not a fan of regional banks, so this caught my eye…

I had GPT analyze this and interestingly it suggested shorting regional banks (KRE), hard to say if it came to that conclusion on it’s own or it knows me so well and knew I would want it to say that though :)

Wells Fargo just got its muzzle removed—and regional banks should be very worried.

🚨 The Sleeping Giant Awakens

After nearly seven years under a Federal Reserve-imposed asset cap, Wells Fargo (WFC) has been unleashed. The restriction, imposed in 2018 following a series of scandals, limited the bank’s total assets to around $1.95 trillion. This meant that as the rest of the U.S. banking system absorbed hundreds of billions in deposits—especially during COVID stimulus waves and last year’s regional banking scare—Wells sat on the sidelines.

Now the leash is off.

đź’Ą Implications for Regional Banks

Wells Fargo is one of the few banks in America with the brand, balance sheet, and branch footprint to pose an existential threat to regionals—and it just got permission to start punching again. From 2019 to 2024, regional banks added $1 trillion in deposits. Wells? Just $5% growth—far below the industry. Had it matched national growth, it could’ve added more than $400 billion.

Guess where that money is coming from now?

  • With the Fed shrinking its balance sheet and no new stimulus coming, new deposits must come from competitors.

  • Regional banks, which rely heavily on deposit spreads for profits and don’t have large investment banking arms, will be the first to feel the pressure.

  • Expect a brutal repricing war for retail deposits—especially as Wells ramps up its push into cash-rich corporate and investment clients.

🔥 Why This Matters Now

In 2023, the regional banking crisis triggered by SVB’s collapse taught us how fragile deposit confidence can be. With Wells now free to offer better terms, slicker digital tools, and more attractive corporate banking solutions, smaller banks could see an exodus of sticky deposits—the lifeblood of their balance sheets.

Wells’s strategy is likely to prioritize:

  • Retail deposits: They’re sticky and cost-effective.

  • Corporate cash management: Where Wells can now aggressively court big clients.

  • Investment banking cross-sell: Now possible with asset growth unchained.

🏆 Winners and Losers

Stock/Entity

Rating

Comment

WFC

âś… 9/10

Now free to scale deposit base, gain share across retail and corporate, improve margins.

JPM, BAC, C

⚖️ 6/10

Neutral. Face more competition from Wells, but less vulnerable than regionals.

CFG, RF, FITB, KEY (regionals)

⚠️ 4/10

At risk of deposit erosion and tighter NIMs.

TFC, PNC, MTB

🚨 3/10

Regionals with heavy reliance on interest spread revenue, vulnerable to Wells’s aggressive pricing.

đź’ˇ Strategic Takeaway for Investors

With WFC back in the game, regional bank consolidation could accelerate as smaller players struggle to retain depositors and maintain profitability. For investors, this is a wake-up call:

  • Trim or hedge regional bank exposure.

  • Reallocate toward large-cap banks with room to grow, like Wells, which now has both a defensive and offensive position.

  • Consider inverse or leveraged ETFs tied to regional banks, such as $KRE, as a tactical hedge.

In short: The Fed’s artificial lid on Wells Fargo created a deposit vacuum that helped keep regionals alive. That lid is gone—and the competition is about to get very real.

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