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Chamath Launching a SPAC is Bullish for Risk Assets
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In Todayās Issue:
Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF
Our Next Webinarā-Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washingtonās Grift Machine
All Things Options
Chamath Launching a SPAC is Bullish for Risk Assets
The GENIUS Act: Crypto Goes Mainstream
How the AI Arms Race Is Quietly Rewiring the Entire Power Gridāand the Stocks Set to Soar
Natural gas is running hot. Oil is still napping. But the smart money is starting to stir.
How the robotic AI revolution just became realāand whoās poised to cash in
and moreā¦ā¦..
Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washingtonās Grift Machine
Thu, Jun 26, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT |
- Two strategies to tap into Washington's grift with limited risk and unlimited upside
- How to use AI to recognize the next top themes before the "smart money" does.
- My simple hedging strategy that takes advantage of the real "dumb money" on Wall Street
To register:
In yesterdayās podcast we took a deep dive on all things options with Options Insider Mark Longo
The HEAT Formula is highly customizable but IMHO correctly using options can enhance results, so this is a must see episodeā¦ā¦.
Chamath Launching a SPAC is Bullish for Risk Assets

I would disagree. If Chamath can launch a SPAC and get people to give him money then it's just beginning
ā Matthew Tuttle (@TuttleCapital)
1:32 PM ⢠Jun 19, 2025
The SPAC IPO market is booming, with more than $10 billion raised across 58 new issues year-to-date.
At this rate, capital raised through SPAC IPOs in 2025 will exceed every year outside of 2020 & 2021.
ā Julian Klymochko (@JulianKlymochko)
7:17 PM ⢠Jun 19, 2025
Markets a bit weaker here, could be people sleeping on the FOMC and feeling it was a bit more hawkish than previously thought and/or more fear about the US entering a broader Middle Eastern war.
GEOPOLITICS: WHATāS CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY?
TIMELINE EXTENDED: Trumpās decision window has shifted from ādaysā to ātwo weeks,ā signaling a pause for diplomacy.
DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT DEEPENS: Geneva talks are now active, with European and Gulf states pushing hard for de-escalation.
MILITARY POSTURE CLARIFIED: The delay is strategic, allowing for full deployment and readiness.
RISK CALCULUS SHARPENED: New analysis outlines the operational and geopolitical risks of a Fordow strike.
REGIONAL DYNAMICS INTENSIFY: Gulf states are more vocal and active in diplomacy, fearing direct fallout.
Chamath wants to launch another SPAC :). As I said on X, I think if he can pull that off and get people to give him money itās a positive for risk assets.
Doesnāt mean we arenāt in a bubble, we probably are, as long as you always have hedges and are nimble it doesnāt matter.
Itās triple witching today so plan accordinglyā¦.
I think the biggest thing going on right now is the Genius Actā¦..
š„ The GENIUS Act: Crypto Goes Mainstream
Crypto is not a threat to the dollar. In fact, stablecoins can reinforce dollar supremacy.
Digital assets are one of the most important phenomena in the world right now, yet they have been ignored by national governments for far too long.
This administration is committed to
ā Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent)
6:30 PM ⢠Jun 18, 2025
Mastercard $MA logged its 2nd worst day since Oct 2023, as stablecoin adoption fears pick up. Reports say big retailers like $WMT & $AMZN have explored launching their own stablecoins in the U.S., while $COIN rolled out Coinbase Payments, a USDC-based payment stack for commerce.
ā Wall St Engine (@wallstengine)
8:07 PM ⢠Jun 18, 2025
Now that the GENIUS Act has passed we are going to take another look and highlight Circle (CRCL)ā¦ā¦..
What just happened:
The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins) with strong bipartisan support (68ā30), sending it to the House . This is a landmark move to regulate stablecoins with:
100% backing by cash or ā¤90-day Treasurys
Monthly reserve disclosures and AML compliance
Audited financials for issuers >$50B
Holder-priority in bankruptcy cases
This places stablecoins clearly within U.S. financial infrastructure, giving them legal legitimacy alongside traditional banks.
š What Stablecoins Could Mean for the Economy
Bank deposits shift
If you pull $1 from a bank to a stablecoin, that bank loses deposit fundingābut government demand for Treasurys soars ($0.90 per $1) curzioresearch.combusinessinsider.com.
That could hurt regional banks, making their funding more volatile and expensive .
Treasury markets & yield curve
U.S. Treasurys will face volatile demand. Short-term yields may fall, long-end may stay, steepening the curve and complicating Fed moves .
Credit card networks threatened
Stablecoins mean nearāinstant, free settlementābypassing the fees that Visa/MA/American Express rely on.
Expect merchants like Amazon and Walmart to build or integrate their own digital payment rails
Payments efficiency boost
Cross-border transfers become cheaper & faster. Banks will scramble to offer ātokenized depositsā to compete c.
Regulatory safety net in place
Transparency, audits, AML rules limit blackāmarket use. But offshore tokens (e.g., Tether) may slip through regulatory cracks
š Winners & Losers
š¢ Winners
Circle (CRCL): IPO soared on the Senate vote . With USDC as a regulated digital dollar, Circle is positioned to dominate tokenized global payments and settlements .
Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA): Integrating stablecoin rails into existing networks could preserve, even grow, fee revenueābut only if they adapt quickly .
Big banks embracing blockchain: JPMorgan filed for its own stablecoin (JPMD). Others will followāand those that do best can survive the shift cointelegraph.com.
Treasury & bond market transparency outfits: Firms tied to market infrastructure and short-term rate forecasting win as Treasurys are used more as reserves.
š» Losers
Regional & community banks: Risk of unstable deposits, less insured funding, and higher funding costs make them vulnerable .
Credit card companies: If stablecoin rails erode interchange fees, platforms like Visa and MA face existential disruptionāunless they pivot fast.
Offshore/opaque stablecoins: Issuers like Tether donāt fit the new rulesāand offshore use on U.S. exchanges may be banned .
Smaller banks & fintech apps: Those who fail to pivot to tokenized deposits or stablecoin integration risk losing a share of everyday banking.
š§ Spotlight: Circle (CRCL)
Circle is front-and-center in this revolution:
USDC market cap ā $61B
IPO more than tripled from $31 to over $100 in days.
Creates a base layer for global digital dollar financeāfrom wholesale payments to tokenized dollar loans and more .
The GENIUS Act removes major regulatory uncertainty, giving Circle an institutional edge .
Fundamental judgment: Circle is less a crypto play and more a regulated financial infrastructure bet. If you believe the U.S. builds its digital financial backbone on stablecoins, CRCL is a must-own.
š ļø Strategic Moves
Buy CRCL: It's the infrastructure layer, not a pumpāandādump token.
Overweight big banks building their own rails: JPM, BAC, C ā choose those embracing digital ledger innovation.
Hedge short-term yield risk: Expect volatility in short-end Treasurys.
Evaluate Visa/MA: If they integrate stablecoin tech, good; if not, bad.
Avoid murky offshore stablecoins: Regulatory patchwork and dependency risk make them a minefield.
š Final Take
This isnāt about crypto speculationāitās about rebuilding the plumbing of finance on a blockchain backbone. The GENIUS Act is the green light.
Stablecoins arenāt a fadātheyāre the digital dollar, fully backed, fully auditable, and āÆalways on.
Get ahead of the pivotāCircle is your ticket. Big banks and card networks need to adapt or collapse. Keep short-dated bond exposure tight, and watch yields play hopscotch.
This is more than innovationāitās financial infrastructure modernization. And the first movers are going to write history.
ā”ļø**"The Next Electricity Shockwave Is Hereāand Itās Not About EVs"**
How the AI Arms Race Is Quietly Rewiring the Entire Power Gridāand the Stocks Set to Soar
Articles about AI power generation always get my attention, so I had GPT take a deep dive. Interesting that PWR and MTZ keep coming up. A bit extended for me at the moment. GEV is also, got stopped out of it somewhere along the line and have totally missed this leg up. Hindsight being 20/20 I should have bought it on the dip into the 20 day EMAā¦.

Let me ask you something: What happens when 240 kilowatts of electricity is needed... for a single rack of servers?
Thatās not a typo. Thatās what Nvidiaās next-gen Rubin chips will demand from every server rack they power.
And guess what? There are thousands of those racks going into the next wave of AI data centersāright now.
This isn't a tech story. This is a power story. And itās a $1.4 trillion opportunity in disguise.
š The āAI Factoryā Is the New Gigafactory
Call them what you wantādata centers, inference farms, AI clustersābut Nvidia and Schneider Electric have settled on a more accurate label: AI Factories. Because thatās what they are.
Instead of stamping steel or baking semiconductors, these factories generate intelligenceāand theyāre more power-hungry than anything weāve seen in modern industrial history.
Nvidiaās H200s use 70 kW per rack
Blackwell jumps to 132 kW
Rubin is coming: 240 kW per rack
Schneider is building racks to handle 1,000 kW (1 megawatt!)
Multiply that by thousands of racks per factory, then multiply again by the hundreds of facilities in planning across the U.S., Europe, and Asia.
The result? According to BofA, U.S. electricity demand will quadruple its growth rate from 0.5% to 2.5% annually between now and 2035. That requires 800 gigawatts of new generation capacity.
And a new $1.4 trillion capex cycle.
This is the kind of growth utility bulls havenāt dared dream about since the Eisenhower administration.
š§Ø The True Source of the Boom
This isnāt being driven by EVs. Or climate policy. Or government handouts.
Itās being driven by:
Nvidiaās annual GPU launches, each doubling computeāand power needs
The rise of AI inference (not just training)āwhich now happens constantly across apps like ChatGPT, Gemini, and Teslaās autonomous platform
Cloud giants and sovereign AI projects all racing to build hundreds of AI factoriesāwith many planned to be gigawatt scale
This will trigger the biggest infrastructure buildout in the power sector since the post-WWII era.
And investors have no idea.
š The Coming Surge: Winners and Losers
š Winners
ā GE Vernova (GEV)
Porter-style punchline: They make the parts that make the electrons flow.
GEV is a pure-play on grid equipment, turbines, substations, and industrial-scale control systems. BofA has a $550 targetāand itās probably too low.
ā Schneider Electric (SU / SCHN.PA)
The ārack builderā of the AI age. Theyāre not just wiring powerātheyāre building infrastructure to feed megawatts directly into AI clusters. Now partnered with Nvidia to scale this across Europe. Quiet killer.
ā Quanta Services (PWR) and MasTec (MTZ)
AI-driven grid growth will mean thousands of miles of new high-voltage lines. These are your picks-and-shovels for the new digital frontier.
ā T&D Infrastructure ETFs
Think: IDU, UTES, or create a basket of utility contractors, transformer manufacturers, and high-capacity cable suppliers.
š Losers
ā Legacy Utilities with No Expansion Plan
If you're a regional utility with no capacity growth plan and no exposure to AI-heavy zones (think rural co-ops), you're going to be left behind. Avoid the low-voltage laggards.
ā Old-School REITs
Data center REITs without AI-focused tenants or power delivery innovation are at risk of being leapfrogged. Stick to names building AI-first campuses with megawatt access.
š Why This Is Bigger Than Just Power
This is the real AI bottleneck.
The chips are here. The models are training. The demand is exploding.
But if you can't feed these āfactoriesā power at scale, none of it works.
That means the companies that can safely, efficiently, and rapidly expand electricity infrastructure are the ones who will ride the AI tsunamiāwithout needing to pick the next killer app.
Investors spent the last 18 months chasing AI software. But what they missedāwhat BofA just confirmedāis that AI is as much a utility trade as it is a tech trade.
The grid is becoming the limiting factor. And the companies rebuilding it will print money for the next decade.
Donāt wait for the headlines. By the time Wall Street realizes GE Vernova is the Nvidia of power delivery, itāll already be $800 a share.
š¢ļø āThe Second Wind for Oil: Why Energy Stocks Could Be 2025ās Most Misunderstood Tradeā
Natural gas is running hot. Oil is still napping. But the smart money is starting to stir.
Let me ask you a question:
If an entire sector trades at a discount to the S&P, has massive free cash flow, owns critical geopolitical leverage, and just had its biggest ETF inflow in 18 monthsāshould you buy it?
Yes. Yes, you should.
Because right now, energy is being handed to you at a discount. Again.
š§ Here's Whatās Really Going On
The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is beating the S&P 500ās YTD, but that number masks whatās really happening under the surface:
Natural gas names and refiners are carrying the index.
Oil drillers and services? Still in the doghouseābut undervalued, underloved, and poised to rip.
Hereās the scorecard:
Winners |
---|
EQT (nat gas) |
Valero (refining) |
Marathon Petroleum |
Laggards |
---|
Halliburton |
APA |
Occidental |
Diamondback |
š The Why Behind the Divergence
š¢ Natural Gas:
Riding the AI/data center tailwind: cooling systems and new generation demand tied to hyperscale growth = big upside for firms like EQT
Goldman Sachs calls EQT the best positioned for "cheap scale + data center leverage"
Add to that industrial restocking and youāve got a pricing floor
š¢ļø Oil:
Sidelined by recession fears
OPEC volatility and investor PTSD from 2023ā2024 drawdowns
Under-owned, underweightedābut trading at 10Ć forward earnings and producing dividends + buybacks
Now add this:
Bank of America says last week marked the biggest ETF inflow into energy since October 2023āspurred by the Israel-Iran conflict and rising oil prices.
In other words, smart money is quietly rotating inābefore earnings comps turn favorable and oil catches fire again.
š Winners, Losers, and What Comes Next
š Top Stocks Poised to Run (Undervalued Oil Edition)
Ticker | Company | Why Itās a Winner Now |
---|---|---|
FANG | Diamondback Energy | Best-in-class Permian player, pristine balance sheet, now trades at a discount to historical NAV |
HAL | Halliburton | Services lagging, but pricing strength returning; classic late-cycle gainer |
XOM | ExxonMobil | Trading at a market multiple with 2Ć the cash flow, global leverage |
COP | ConocoPhillips | Unhedged, shale-focused, pure-play upside on oil rally |
VLO | Valero | Already winning, but still trading cheap vs historical P/E; Gulf Coast refining = margin gold |
ā Still Risky
Ticker | Why You Should Be Cautious |
---|---|
APA | High debt, international risk, weaker cash gen |
Service-only micro caps | Thin margins, high volatility, little pricing power |
Non-integrated refiners outside Gulf | Lack Gulf margin tailwinds, more exposed to regional crack spread collapse |
š„ The Contrarian Call for 2025
While tech investors are chasing Nvidiaās heat signature, the biggest asymmetric trade may be in the one sector that literally powers everything else: oil and gas.
Youāve got rising geopolitical risk.
Youāve got undervalued balance sheets and monster buybacks.
And youāve got a growing energy security narrative being adopted by both sides of the aisle.
Ohāand the AI boom?
It doesnāt run on dreams. It runs on electricity, and that means natural gas and refined product flows are only going up.
š§ Final Take
This isnāt just a bounce trade. This is a multi-year re-rating opportunity.
Natural gas names like EQT are already leadingābut oil is the catch-up play.
Refiners like Valero are getting rewarded for scale and Gulf Coast access.
Service names like Halliburton are setting up for a demand surge in late '25.
And big oilāXOM, COP, CVXāare all trading like utilities with 6Ć the upside.
The last time energy was this cheap versus the S&P, it tripled over two years.
š¼ Portfolio Moves
Overweight Natural Gas: EQT, CTRA, LNG, AR
Add to Refiners: VLO, MPC
Rebuild E&P positions: FANG, COP, EOG
High-conviction contrarian buy: HAL
Hedge with oil call spreads or oil-linked ETFs (XOP, OIH, XLE)
š¤ āTheyāre Coming for the JobsāBut Also for the Alphaā
How the robotic AI revolution just became realāand whoās poised to cash in
In the last 90 days, youāve probably seen the headlines:
Driverless taxis in London by 2026
Amazon opening a park for AI-powered delivery bots
President Trump signing an executive order to make America #1 in drones
Let me be blunt: this isnāt science fiction anymore.
The robots are real. Theyāre learning. Theyāre moving. And this time, they arenāt just cleaning your floor or flipping burgersātheyāre gunning for every supply chain, every delivery route, every fulfillment center, and every aging population on Earth.
This week, Citi dropped a report titled "The Rise of AI Robots", and itās not your usual sell-side puff piece. It reads more like a war manual for capitalists.
Because hereās the key stat buried in that report:
By 2050, Citi expects 4 billion robotic AI units deployed globallyāwith humanoid robots alone becoming a $7 TRILLION market.
Thatās not a niche.
Thatās a parallel industrial economy being born in real time.
š„ The Catalysts Are All Lining Up
Labor shortages are getting worse in developed nations
Mooreās Law has collided with physical mobility
AI software has become agenticānot just predictive, but autonomous
And now, capital is flooding into robotics faster than it did into SaaS or cloud in the early 2010s
So what does that mean for investors like us?
It means this isnāt about theory anymore. Itās about who builds the most useful robot the fastestāand which companies own the key platforms and supply chains behind them.
š Winners and Losers
š Winners
ā Nvidia (NVDA)
Letās stop pretending. Every humanoid robot, drone, or delivery bot runs inference workloadsāand they all need GPUs. Rubin (Nvidiaās next chip) will power humanoids with 240 kW racks. Thatās not just demandāitās addiction.
ā Tesla (TSLA)
You want asymmetric optionality? Itās not in EVs anymore. Itās in OptimusāTeslaās humanoid robot. The company is quietly rebranding itself from EV to robotics AI manufacturing. When Optimus starts doing real-world factory work (expected by 2026), TSLA becomes a robotics platform.
ā Symbotic (SYM)
Already deploying robotic automation at scale inside Walmart and Target warehouses. If humanoids are the next wave, Symbotic is the prequel. And theyāre profitable.
ā Pudu Robotics (private for now)
Mentioned by Citi. Focused on service & delivery robots. Expect IPO hype as humanoid narratives grow.
ā Robot Power Infra: AEHR, ON, AMBA, LSI, STM
You want to power, drive, or sense? These semis are in every bot build. Aehr Test Systems is a picks-and-shovels play on chip-level testing for silicon in AI robotics.
ā Amazon (AMZN)
Not for e-commerce. For logistics. Amazonās "delivery bot park" shows they want to own the last-mile hardwareānot just the software. Watch for them to launch their own bot platform.
š» Losers
ā Low-skill labor
This is the elephant in the warehouse. Delivery drivers, warehouse pickers, basic service staffāautomation has reached the job marketās soft underbelly.
ā Legacy industrials that don't automate
Old-line manufacturers without robotics roadmaps will die a slow death. Think GE without Vernova, or Emerson if they donāt go autonomous.
ā Robot-as-a-gimmick startups
There will be scams. There will be SPACs. Avoid any humanoid play that doesnāt control supply chain or inference logic. Form factor ā moat.
If AI is the brain, robotics is the body.
And this year, that body just learned to walk, talk, deliver packages, sweep aisles, and maybe even change Grandmaās IV bag.
The humanoid robot market is expected to hit $7 TRILLION by 2050.
Thatās bigger than electric vehicles. Bigger than smartphones.
And the capital is moving fastābecause governments now see robotic AI as a geopolitical priority, not a sci-fi headline.
You donāt need to bet on the robot that wins.
You need to bet on the infrastructure that gets built because they exist.
š„ What to Do Now
Core AI exposure: NVDA, AMZN, TSLA
Pure-play robotics: SYM, upcoming IPOs (Pudu)
Edge semis & power: AEHR, ON, STM, LSI
Optionality basket: Small caps supplying sensors, actuators, batteries, vision modules
Watch list: Humanoid IP arms raceāfigure out who builds real-time vision, locomotion control, and human-interaction firmware
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