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Table of Contents

🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now

A little bit of a selloff yesterday, not unexpected after Friday’s move. The more interesting moves where in crypto. Bitcoin got into the 108s, and this chart clearly looks like a short…..

Ethereum continued to have some relative strength but backed off as well after coming within sniffing distance of 5,000…..

The narrative was that you had a massive bitcoin sale over the weekend that brought the market down. If that’s the case then this is could be a great buy the dip opportunity.

When stocks go down you usually have a good reason why. When crypto goes down you often don’t. Even this Barron’s article this morning that claims to tell you why crypto is slumping, doesn’t…..

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano Drop Again. Why Cryptos Are Slumping.

www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-ethereum-cardano-xrp-crypto-slump-00d870fe?mod=hp_WIND_A_2_1

At least the bulls have Peter Schiff….

I will be on NewsMax at 11:25am EST today talking about crypto and today’s newsletter focuses on crypto…..

🧠 Crypto Market Structure: What to Watch, Who Wins, Who Loses

The setup:
Crypto market structure legislation is unlikely until late winter or early 2026. Not because there’s no interest, but because the Senate is swamped, PAC money is flowing, and the partisan divide on who regulates what remains unresolved. That means we’re entering a politically charged waiting game.

1. The Three Big Roadblocks

A) Legislative calendar logjam

  • Senate only in for a few weeks at a time this fall. Must-pass bills (budget, NDAA, Ukraine aid, even the Epstein file fight) eat the oxygen.

  • Translation: Crypto regulation is not a Q4 2025 story—it’s a 2026 event.

B) Follow the money

  • The Fairshake PAC has $140M already—could double into the election.

  • Congress likes to dangle legislation to extract more contributions before acting.

  • Translation: The more crypto donates, the slower this moves—until a real election-season deal is needed.

C) Narrowing differences

  • This is more complex than stablecoin regs. Needs alignment on custody, staking, tokenization, and stablecoins on deposit.

  • Democrats vs Republicans, but also House vs Senate.

  • Translation: Watch for a “grand bargain” signal—until then, noise dominates.

2. Winners

  • Exchanges with U.S. scale and lobbying muscle: $COIN is the clearest direct beneficiary if legislation clarifies custody & staking. A regulated path legitimizes their U.S. franchise.

  • Broker-dealers / TradFi rails: $SCHW, $ICE, $NDAQ could gain if tokenization of securities folds into market structure.

  • Custodians / infrastructure: $BK (BNY Mellon), $STT already building digital custody—legislation could accelerate adoption.

  • Stablecoin leaders: USDC (Circle) benefits from clarity, especially if deposits with platforms are ringfenced.

3. Losers

  • Offshore-first exchanges: Binance, Bybit—anything without U.S. compliance DNA will lose market share.

  • Yield farming / staking-as-a-service without disclosures: Business models relying on regulatory gray areas likely get shut down.

  • Small-cap “utility token” projects: If tokenization rules classify more assets as securities, speculative alt projects get crushed.

4. Second-Order Plays

  • Crypto miners: Not directly affected, but if regulation boosts institutional flows, higher BTC/ETH liquidity helps names like $MARA, $RIOT, $IREN.

  • Tokenization platforms: Private names building tokenized treasuries, real estate, etc. benefit if Congress codifies a framework.

  • DeFi hybrids: Protocols that already meet KYC/AML halfway could see VC interest surge if market structure clarity arrives.

5. How This Changes Investing

  • Timeline shift: Don’t expect a “regulation rally” in Q4. Positioning for clarity is a 2026 trade.

  • Politics as catalyst: Fairshake PAC and other donations mean crypto is officially part of election finance math. Expect headlines around contributions → volatility events.

  • Barbell approach: Own liquid leaders ($COIN, custody banks, exchanges) + optionality via miners/tokenization, but hedge via shorts/puts in unregistered token plays.

🚨 The Take

Crypto regulation is coming—but not until politics wrings every last dollar from it. That means volatility and PAC headlines near-term, but structural upside for Coinbase, custody banks, and stablecoin leaders in 2026. Offshore players and gray-market yield schemes are the walking dead.

🗳️ Crypto Legislation 2026: Political Calendar + Trade Watchlist

1. Political Calendar to Watch

  • Sept 2025: Senate returns (Sept 2–19) → Spending package + NDAA crowd the calendar. No meaningful crypto movement.

  • Oct–Nov 2025: Short sessions with breaks + election finance ramp. Crypto PACs ($140M+) press donations → expect noise, not law.

  • Q1 2026 (Jan–Mar):

    • Trump nominees confirmed → committee bandwidth opens.

    • Spending extensions behind us.

    • Real window for crypto market structure legislation to move.

  • Election year dynamics: Both parties want PAC cash, but late Q1/early Q2 2026 is the legislative sweet spot before campaign season locks Congress down.

2. Trade Watchlist by Phase

📉 Phase 1: Pre-Legislation (Now → Winter 2025)

  • Volatility plays: PAC headlines + rumors cause spikes/dips.

  • Winners: Traders in liquid proxies ($BTC, $ETH futures; $MARA, $RIOT miners).

  • Losers: Small-cap tokens/projects—high SEC scrutiny + no clarity.

  • Strategy: Own liquid leaders but hedge with options; fade speculative alt rallies.

📈 Phase 2: Legislative Window (Q1 2026)

  • Winners:

    • $COIN (clear rules on custody/staking = valuation re-rate).

    • Custody banks: $BK, $STT.

    • Stablecoins: Circle/USDC (private, IPO candidate).

    • Exchanges: $NDAQ, $ICE if tokenization is included.

  • Losers:

    • Offshore-first exchanges (Binance/Bybit).

    • Gray-market staking/yield platforms.

  • Strategy: Barbell → Long $COIN/$BK/$STT + short offshore proxies; accumulate ETH for institutional flows (tokenization tailwind).

🏛️ Phase 3: Post-Legislation (Mid/Late 2026)

  • Winners:

    • Institutional rails: $ICE, $NDAQ, TradFi platforms with tokenization modules.

    • DeFi-compliant hybrids → protocols that embrace KYC/AML.

    • Miners ($MARA, $RIOT, $IREN) if institutional demand lifts BTC.

  • Losers:

    • Utility token projects that fail securities tests.

    • Legacy DeFi without compliance features.

  • Strategy: Rotate into tokenization platforms, institutional DeFi, stablecoin rails.

3. The Big Take

  • Now → Winter 2025: Noise trade. Expect PAC-funding headlines and Senate bottlenecks.

  • Q1 2026: Real shot at market structure bill. Position in Coinbase, custody banks, ETH, and tokenization rails.

  • Post-2026: The winners are the platforms that plug into TradFi; the losers are offshore and non-compliant plays.

Investor takeaway: This is a political catalyst trade. Near-term = volatility. 2026 = regulatory clarity + institutional flows.

Please register for our next webinar:

The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover

Wednesday August 27, 2-3pm EST

-Why the 60/40 strategy is dead and what to do instead

-Why covered call strategies suck, and what may be much better

- How to use AI to uncover today and tomorrow's hottest themes

- 4 unknown edges that still exist in today's market

- How to set up your portfolio for asymmetrical returns

- Little-known asset class that has limited risk and potentially unlimited returns

- 4 ways to hedge your portfolio that don't include bonds

Click Below to Register

The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover

register.gotowebinar.com/register/2624613869727898967

📈 Stock Corner

Today’s stock is Coinbase (COIN)……

I talk about it a lot above. If you look at who the likely winners are going to be from a rise in popularity of crypto, you can’t help but come upon COIN. It’s way off the highs, traders could use the 10 day moving average as a buy spot. Put sellers could use anywhere under the 200 day.

📬 In Case You Missed It

🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help

  1. ETFs: The Antidote to Wall Street

  2. Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know

  3. Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy

  4. Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled

  5. Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge

    The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2025 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.

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