Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since.

That’s why we created a new approach — The H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth.

Table of Contents

🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now

Second day of the government shutdown and markets were green again, and green in pre market.

We’ve been focusing a lot on crypto this week, and it has not disappointed. Yesterday I mentioned that Bitcoin looked like it wanted to test the highs….

And that Ethereum needed to break above the 50 day….

I continue to believe you need to own crypto, which is why many of our launches focus there….

Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF

The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation.

rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf

They tried to sell gold off yesterday, but it closed well off the lows….

Had a great conversation with Jerry Parker yesterday on the podcast (below) about systematic trend following. I am a big believer that countertrend strategies work and will continue to work, and I refer to them as a structural Edge and part of the H.E.A.T. Formula. I’m somewhat dubious about trend following. Interestingly, I though Jerry would be more of a raving fan, but I think even he is a bit disappointed with how it’s performed recently.

The benefit of systematic managed futures is that you can trade 400 markets like Jerry does, but I used to say you should have a fixed allocation

We also interviewed Tom Basso a couple of weeks ago, he’s also a systematic trend follower, and he was much more rah rah about it….

He doesn’t have funds where you can see performance though. I have backtested his strategies in Bloomberg (I am dubious about their backtesting engine) and wasn’t blown away.

Gary Kaltbaum on the other hand, is a discretionary trend follower…..

He’s looking at charts and can’t trade 400 markets simultaneously.

Bottom line, why I like interviewing guys like this on the podcast, is there is not right answer. I like to take different things from different people and apply them based on my skills, my portfolio goals, and how much time I have to watch markets.

For me, I use trend following from the standpoint that I have a moving average crossing indicator on my thematic portfolio. In a perfect world I would read charts, I’m good at it, but I don’t have the time. So the moving averages just keep me out of trouble.

I think the key thing Jerry said is that he is constantly studying new ideas and adapting. The strategy he uses today is very different from what he did as a Turtle.

I’ve said before that the biggest beneficiary of AI could be biotech and healthcare. We are seeing some great breakthroughs in a number of areas, but things like this are game changing…..

Using AI to See the Hidden Signs of Breast Cancer

Researchers and companies are designing AI algorithms that can detect signs of breast cancer in mammograms before those signs are visible to the human eye. WSJ reporter Brianna Abbott joins to share how these advanced AI tools compare against current risk-detection methods.

www.wsj.com/podcasts/tech-news-briefing/using-ai-to-see-the-hidden-signs-of-breast-cancer/35667a1b-c950-4e88-b9d8-b68b0f50756b

🧠Crypto Treasuries (DATs) Are Back: Edge or Exit?

On the heels of our successful launch of BMNU….

And Crypto Treasury (DATs) in the news so much I figured it would be time to hit them again. I personally own a few of the ones that I think can be successful and I like them as a crypto substitute for those who can’t or won’t own crypto direct. I also think there are too many of them, and most won’t make it.

  • DATs (Digital Asset Treasury companies) are surging again as more micro/micro-cap names pivot to holding BTC/ETH/SOL (and now WLFI/HYPE/ENA) on balance sheet. The pitch is simple: buy equity to access crypto exposure. The reality: dilution, governance, custody opacity, and NAV gaps drive outcomes more than token direction. MarketsWiki+1

  • Premiums → discounts: A growing slice of DATs now trade at or below their crypto NAV, reflecting “dilution fatigue” and investor selectivity. Even the flagship proxy has seen its premium compress sharply. Morningstar+1

  • BMNR (BitMine Immersion) is the current crowd magnet; treat it like a financing machine with crypto beta where issuance, borrow cost, and treasury verification matter as much as the coins. MarketWatch+1

  • Expect M&A, liquidations, and forced selling to cull the herd if crypto wobbles. Discounts won’t magically close without catalysts. LongHash Ventures

What’s new (and why it matters)

  1. DATs go mainstream
    In 2025, >200 public companies adopted “crypto-treasury” strategies—raising capital and buying tokens (BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, WLFI, HYPE, ENA). It’s now an investable sub-ecosystem, not a handful of outliers. Morningstar

  2. Premium to NAV is dying
    The “buy equity above NAV” model is stalling. Analysts now flag discounts across a quarter of the universe; the marquee proxy’s premium has eroded toward ~1.4. Translation: equity holders are no longer paid for the pivot by default. Morningstar+1

  3. Political/brand tokens enter the chat (WLFI)
    WLFI and its corporate tie-ins (ALT5 Sigma/ALTS) supercharged headlines—but the equity often underperformed the token narrative as discounts widened and volatility spiked. Investopedia+1

  4. Regulatory and microstructure risk
    Reports of volume spikes before treasury announcements, and scrutiny from regulators, add a tail risk to story stocks. (MarketWatch/WSJ reporting.) Morningstar

Winners vs. Losers (framework)

Likely Winners

  • Scale, balance-sheet discipline, and transparent treasury ops. Names that 1) keep issuance in check, 2) disclose wallets/custody and third-party attestations, and 3) run clean governance are best positioned to retain a premium or close a discount. The flagship’s premium compression shows that policy on equity issuance directly changes the equity/coin wedge. Barron's

  • DATs with “meta-optionalities.” If they add staking yield (ETH/SOL where appropriate), real cash flow, or strategic M&A that consolidates discounts accretively, they can create NAV-accretion beyond coin beta. LongHash Ventures

  • Credible miners/infra with treasuries. When you get both production economics and treasury leverage (and can term out capex), equity can outperform coin beta on upswings. Watch BMNR as a sentiment bellwether, but underwrite like a miner/hoster first, not a coin ETF. MarketWatch+1

Likely Losers

  • ATM-driven “NAV mills.” Chronic share issuance (ATMs, converts) to buy more tokens tends to trap equity below NAV—dilution outruns coin gains, premiums collapse. The flagship’s premium shrinkage amid issuance pivots is the tell. Barron's

  • Opaque WLFI/alt-token treasuries without verifiable reserves. If custody isn’t transparent and treasury addresses aren’t attested, discounts persist and can widen into drawdowns (ALT5/ALTS experience). Investopedia+1

  • Subscale pivots from failing legacy ops. If the core business was broken and the DAT pivot is the plan, not a plan with governance, expect a perpetual discount and high borrow—until M&A or liquidation. (KindlyMD/NAKA arc.) Morningstar+1

How I’d trade it

1) Core relative-value: Long BTC / Short a basket of premium-to-NAV DATs

  • Thesis: Own the asset, short the leakage (dilution + fees + governance).

  • Screen: Premium > 1.2×, elevated borrow utilizations, ATMs active, poor disclosure.

  • Hedge: Roll 0DTE/short-dated calls against BTC on spikes; cover shorts when discounts approach parity.

2) Discount-to-par catalysts (specials)

  • Long discounted DATs with near-term catalysts: announced buybacks, wallet attestations, or M&A (stock-for-stock at higher multiple) can drive NAV convergence. Size small; exit on gap-close. LongHash Ventures

3) WLFI/alt-token treasuries = event trades, not investments

  • If you play WLFI/HYPE/ENA treasury names around launches/PR, treat as short-fuse volatility with hard stops. Don’t underwrite terminal value without verifiable reserves and leak-proof capital plan. Investopedia

4) BMNR: trade the machine, not the meme

  • Track: issuance cadence, ETH/BTC holdings adds, hosting utilization, and borrow costs. If equity screams ahead of NAV on issuance rumors, fade the pop; if it trades at sustainable discount with wallet attestations, it’s a candidate for a tactical long into catalyst dates. Yahoo Finance+1

Risk Map (what can nuke the thesis)

  • Coin drawdown + equity issuance = liquidation spiral: discounts widen, lenders tighten, weaker DATs puke tokens to survive—amplifying downside in spot. LongHash Ventures

  • Regulatory action on trading anomalies or treasury disclosures → gap risk in single names. Morningstar

  • Funding markets shut (ATMs/converts dry up) → M&A or wind-downs accelerate; discounts may persist even on coin upswings.

What to watch (weekly dashboard)

  1. Premium/discount to NAV by name (fully diluted), with policy notes on issuance thresholds (e.g., “issue only >2.5× NAV”). Barron's

  2. Treasury attestations (wallets, custody, auditor letters) vs. “press-release only.”

  3. Borrow rate/utilization for high-beta DATs (short crowding).

  4. Token mix (BTC vs. ETH/SOL vs. WLFI/HYPE/ENA) and liquidity depth. Investopedia

  5. M&A chatter and insider flows; rising insider sales alongside premiums = red flag. Barron's

Bottom line

❝

DATs are not a free lunch. In 2020–23, equity premiums rewarded “first movers.” In 2025, the market is smarter: no clean story, no premium. Own the asset (BTC/ETH) and rent the DATs around catalysts—or target discounts with real closing paths (attestations, buybacks, M&A). Avoid ATM-driven “NAV mills.” Morningstar+1

Sources

📈 Stock Corner

Today’s stock is Churchill Capital Corp X (CCCX)…..

This one’s a SPAC, bit too rich to be in SPCX, but it’s still somewhat of an asymmetrical play….

📬 In Case You Missed It

Jerry Parker on trend following…

🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help

  1. ETFs: The Antidote to Wall Street

  2. Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know

  3. Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy

  4. Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unleashed

  5. Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge

    The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2025 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.

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