The H.E.A.T. Formula is a radically different way to look at investing your portfolio.

‍H- Hedges, you should always have hedges and be agnostic as to being long or short. Bonds are not a hedge

‍E-Edges, you should always look for edges. Preferably these are edges with some sort of psychological underpinning, structural edges, or some sort of barrier to entry.

‍A-Asymmetric. Everything you do, be it trades or your overall portfolio, should be designed so that heads you win a lot, tails you lose a little.

‍T-Themes. You should always be invested in the top themes. Most everything else is just noise.

Our Next Webinar

Uncovering Hidden Themes with AI: How DeepSeek Is Rewriting the Investment Playbook

Thu, Feb 27, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EST

1. Bullets From DeepSeek to Disruptors: Explore how one AI breakthrough (DeepSeek) reveals cost-effective strategies and under-the-radar opportunities beyond mainstream tech giants.

2. Finding Alpha in the Noise: Learn how AI-driven data-mining cuts through market hype and identifies genuine growth catalysts—even in emerging or overlooked sectors.

3. Comparing & Contrasting Strategies: Discover how to harness AI to evaluate different investment approaches.

https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/1337947766275418457

Market Recap

Another day, another record. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high (6,129.58), defying skeptics and proving once again that liquidity, AI mania, and an insatiable appetite for risk trump all macro headwinds. The Nasdaq Composite inched above the 20,000 milestone, while the Dow remained relatively flat, suggesting that the real action remains in big tech, semiconductors, and AI infrastructure.

But don’t be fooled. Beneath the surface of this euphoric melt-up, cracks are forming.

AI Super Cycle or The Last Great Bubble?

The semiconductor feeding frenzy hit a new fever pitch as Intel (INTC) exploded 16% amid rumors that Broadcom (AVGO) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) are circling like vultures, looking to scoop up parts of the struggling chip giant. Meanwhile, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) ripped another 16%, proving once again that AI infrastructure plays remain Wall Street’s favorite drug.

Meta (META), however, stumbled, down 2.8%, snapping a 20-day win streak—a brutal reminder that even the titans of tech can’t escape the gravity of overextended runs.

Bond Market Sends a Warning—Is Powell Paying Attention?

While stocks levitated, Treasury yields quietly climbed. The 10-year yield surged to 4.55%, its highest level in weeks, as traders recalibrated their bets on how long the Fed can resist rate cuts. The message from the bond market? Inflation isn’t dead, and Powell’s “higher for longer” stance might just be for real.

Liquidity Is King—For Now

Despite inflation fears and rising yields, one force continues to drive this market: liquidity. With global central banks hesitant to tighten aggressively and institutional cash still sitting on the sidelines, FOMO is in full effect. But history is clear—euphoria without fundamentals always ends the same way.

Bottom Line: What’s Next?

• Tech & AI reign supreme—for now. But overcrowded trades can unwind fast.

• Yields rising = real risk—watch for signs of stress in high-duration assets.

• Liquidity is abundant—but if it tightens, this market can’t defy gravity forever.

SPY Market Analysis – February 18, 2025: Melt-Up or Blow-Off Top?

📊 Key Technical Takeaways from the SPY Chart

🔥 The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) just closed at an all-time high of 611.49 (+0.29%), continuing its relentless melt-up. The trend remains bullish, but momentum indicators suggest caution is warranted.

1️⃣ Price Action & Trend Analysis

• SPY remains in a strong uptrend, trading well above key moving averages:

  • 10-day MA: 605.75 ✅

  • 20-day EMA: 603.66 ✅

  • 50-day MA: 598.88 ✅

  • 200-day MA: 564.51 📈 (strong support)

• No breakdown signs yet, but price action has tightened, suggesting either consolidation or an imminent breakout move.

2️⃣ Momentum Check – Overheated?

• RSI (4) = 75.98 🔥

  • Above 70 = Overbought territory.

  • The last few times RSI crossed 75, SPY saw short-term pullbacks before resuming higher.

  • This doesn’t scream “sell,” but it suggests a cooldown might be near.

• Williams %R (14) = 0.00 😨

  • This indicator is maxed out, signaling extreme overbought conditions.

  • Typically, a reading this high precedes a short-term pullback.

3️⃣ Volume Analysis – Where’s the Conviction?

• 26.7M volume is below average, suggesting the rally lacks big-money conviction.

• The December rally saw huge volume surges, whereas this one has been lighter, raising questions about sustainability.

4️⃣ Support & Resistance Levels

• 🚀 Resistance: 611.50+ (new ATH)

• 📉 Short-term support: 605 (10-day MA)

• 📉 Strong support: 598 (50-day MA)

• 🚨 Key breakdown level: 564 (200-day MA)

🔮 What’s Next?

• Base Case (Bullish): SPY grinds higher, fueled by AI, liquidity, and FOMO.

• Pullback Scenario: Short-term profit-taking could bring SPY to 605-598 before bouncing.

• Major Risk? If bond yields keep rising, watch for a sharp pullback toward the 50-day MA.

💡 Final Verdict: Stay Long, Stay Tactical

• Trend is bullish, but momentum is overheated.

• Short-term traders may consider locking in gains or hedging.

• Long-term investors should stay in the game but prepare for potential dips.

Nvidia-backed Field AI in talks to raise funds at $2 bn valuation- The Information-Investing.com

Physical AI is going to be massive IMHO. Jensen talks about it and a great podcast is Palmer Lucky on Shawn Ryan. He talks about physical AI from a warfare perspective.

According to GPT…..

The recent surge in valuations for robotics startups, exemplified by Field AI's discussions to raise funds at a $2 billion valuation—a fourfold increase from last summer—signals a robust and growing interest in the robotics sector. This trend is further underscored by significant investments in companies like Apptronik and Figure AI, highlighting a broader market momentum.

Implications for Robotics Stocks:

The influx of capital into robotics startups suggests a burgeoning confidence in the sector's potential, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and automation. Established robotics companies and those supplying essential technologies are poised to benefit from this heightened interest and investment.

Baidu profits slow in ‘transformation year’ but top estimates-MarketWatch

BIDU has been one of my core Chinese holdings since DeepSeek. It’s underperformed BABA and GDS. I asked GTP to review it’s earnings and rate it from 1-10…..

Baidu's recent financial performance reflects both challenges and opportunities as it transitions from an internet-centric to an AI-first company.

Earnings Overview:

• Revenue: In Q4 2024, Baidu reported a 2% year-over-year decline in revenue, totaling 34.12 billion yuan ($4.68 billion). This slight decrease was primarily due to a 7% drop in online marketing revenue, which fell to 17.9 billion yuan.reuters.com

• Profit: Despite the revenue dip, net income attributable to Baidu doubled to 5.19 billion yuan ($711 million) in the same quarter, up from 2.60 billion yuan the previous year.rttnews.com

AI and Cloud Growth:

• AI Cloud Revenue: Baidu's AI Cloud segment demonstrated robust growth, with revenue increasing by 26% year-over-year in Q4 2024. This surge underscores the company's successful expansion into AI-driven services.reuters.com

• ERNIE Platform: The ERNIE AI platform experienced a significant uptick in usage, handling 1.65 billion daily user queries and interactions in December 2024, up from 600 million in August 2024.reuters.com

Strategic Initiatives:

• AI Integration: Baidu has been integrating AI across its product suite, including plans to open-source future AI models and offer premium chatbot services free of charge starting in April 2025.reuters.com

• Autonomous Vehicles: The company's Apollo Go service provided over 1.1 million autonomous rides in Q4 2024, marking a 36% increase year-over-year.stocktitan.net

Investment Potential Rating: Considering Baidu's strong position in China's AI sector, its significant investments in AI and cloud computing, and its proactive approach to integrating AI into various services, I would rate Baidu's investment potential as 8 out of 10. This rating reflects confidence in the company's strategic direction and growth prospects, balanced by the challenges in its traditional advertising business and the competitive landscape.

Would be watching the 200 day moving average here….

Brazil Charges Former President Bolsonaro in Alleged Coup Plot-WSJ

Latin America is an area I am watching closely. Argentina was a great trade last year and I have my eyes open for the next one. Brazil has been floated as a possibility, and it has rallied a lot YTD.

Argentina has sold off a bit, and this doesn’t help….

Argentine President’s Promotion of Crypto Rocks His Presidency-WSJ

Chile an Columbia are also possible. I have no position at the moment.

How To Use AI to Analyze Upgrades and Downgrades

I get more Wall Street research than I can, or want to, read. GPT knows my holdings so I typically dump it into there and see if there is anything I should be paying attention to. A couple of my stocks got upgrades, downgrades, and an initiation of coverage. You can use GPT to analyze those also….

1. Snowflake (SNOW) - 8.5/10

• Upgrade: Wolfe Research raised to Outperform, PT $235

• Current Price: $187.60

• Investment Case: Leader in cloud-based data warehousing with strong enterprise adoption.

• Growth Drivers: Expanding AI + data analytics services, partnerships with major cloud providers.

• Risks: High valuation, slowing revenue growth could weigh on multiples.

• Verdict: Wolfe’s confidence suggests upside, but execution must remain strong.

2. Digital Realty (DLR) - 8/10

• Upgrade: Scotiabank raised to Sector Outperform, PT $208

• Current Price: $164.28

• Investment Case: Top-tier data center REIT, benefiting from AI-driven cloud demand.

• Growth Drivers: Hyperscaler demand, AI infrastructure expansion, strong leasing trends.

• Risks: Higher interest rates impact REIT valuations, competitive pressures from Equinix (EQIX).

• Verdict: A solid AI infrastructure play, strong growth potential—undervalued relative to demand.

3. Datadog (DDOG) - 6.5/10

• Downgrade: Wolfe Research cut to Peer Perform

• Current Price: $131.01

• Investment Case: Leading observability + monitoring platform, but faces competition.

• Growth Drivers: Cloud adoption, security expansion, AI-driven monitoring.

• Risks: Valuation concerns, recent deceleration in customer growth.

• Verdict: Long-term growth story intact, but could be overvalued near-term.

4. Oklo (OKLO) - 7.5/10

• New Coverage: Haitong Intl rated Outperform, PT $64.93

• Current Price: $52.62

• Investment Case: Nuclear energy innovator, positioned for clean energy transition.

• Growth Drivers: Microreactors, AI-powered grid integration, rising demand for nuclear power.

• Risks: Regulatory hurdles, long development cycles.

• Verdict: Early-stage but high upside potential—long-term winner if execution is strong.

Conclusion:

• Best immediate opportunity: Snowflake (SNOW) and Digital Realty (DLR).

• High-risk/high-reward: Oklo (OKLO)—could be a long-term winner.

• Near-term concerns: Datadog (DDOG)—not a sell, but caution warranted.

An Investing Riddle: Stocks Are in Turmoil but Stock Markets Aren’t-WSJ

This argues for two things IMHO:

1. Being invested in today and tomorrow’s major themes

2. Always have hedges in place

Stanley Druckenmiller bought Tesla and these tech stocks last quarter-MarketWatch

Again, not a huge fan of using 13Fs for investing as it’s just a snapshot in time and it’s 45 days old. However, if you are going to do it then you want to focus on the top investors and people who tend to buy and hold. Not much better than this guy. We used GPT to rate the stocks he bought…..

Before you go: Here are ways I can help

‍

1. ETFs: We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes.

2. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. I've built a wealth management firm and helped other advisors grow their practices through the use of substantially differentiated investment strategies. If you want to talk just send me an email at [email protected]

3. Monthly investing webinars

4. Rebel Finance Podcast-Coming Thursday

5. Wealth Management-Coming SoonThe views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades.TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2025 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.