I am traveling Thursday so may not have time to get a newsletter out. Either way back on Friday

In Today’s Issue:

• Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF

• Our Next Webinar—-Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine

• Rare Earths

• Happy FOMC Day to Those Who Celebrate

• Goldman Ditches Ban on SPACs as Blank-Check Firms Stage Comeback

• Lilly Buys Verve: The Gene-Editing Gold Rush Begins

• Steel, Wires, and Winners

• Gridlock Meets Gridscale

• and more……..

Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine

- Two strategies to tap into Washington's grift with limited risk and unlimited upside

- How to use AI to recognize the next top themes before the "smart money" does.

- My simple hedging strategy that takes advantage of the real "dumb money" on Wall Street

To register:

Talking Rare Earth on the Podcast: Maybe an ETF idea in here down the road.

Happy FOMC Day to Those Who Celebrate

The market sold off yesterday on speculation we may be entering the war. This morning it’s recouped about half those losses.

You can argue whether we should be involved in the war at all but I’m not sure why that would be bearish for the market. There was this yesterday, leaving some people to speculate that Iran had a nuke, but so far nothing….

FOMC could be big today, one way or the other. We are extended and it’s hard to believe we break through all time highs easily barring some surprise from Powell. I have not been increasing my hedges but I have been selling a lot more cash secured puts for equity exposure rather than buying calls. Upside isn’t as much, but if the market flatlines for a while or goes down a little calls will get crushed but you can still make money selling puts.

🚨 HEAT Formula Playbook: Asymmetry

🚨 HEAT Formula Playbook: Themes

🧬 Lilly Buys Verve: The Gene-Editing Gold Rush Begins

Eli Lilly's $1.3 billion acquisition of Verve Therapeutics (VERV)—makers of a PCSK9 base-editing therapy targeting atherosclerosis—marks a seismic shift. The deal not only validates the "one-shot" gene-editing business model but also signals a coming wave of Big Pharma acquisitions in the space .

🧭 Why This Could Spark a Gene-Editing M&A Boom

• One-time cures confirm commercial scale: Verve’s VERVE‑102 Phase 1b trial showed a ~59% LDL reduction with no safety flags—a paradigm-defining result .

• Cost structure upside: One-time interventions lock in billions in lifetime value.

• Regulatory streamlining: FDA’s openness to plausible-mechanism pathways favors gene-editing assets .

• Big Pharma pipeline gap: Companies like Lilly and Merck can't afford to miss out on durable gene-editing platforms.

📊 Public Gene-Editing Names & Potential Ratings

Here’s a curated list of gene-editing plays—segmented by technology—with a 1–10 “acquisition and commercial upside” rank:

🧠 Base Editing & CRISPR (in Vivo)

🧬 Broad Gene-Editing Platforms

🧪 Adjacent Platforms

📈 Big Pharma Knock-Out Potential: Top Targets

1. CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP, 8/10) – With exa-cel approved and cardiovascular programs underway, CRSP is in line for a Lilly/Merck-style buyout.

2. Intellia (NTLA, 8/10) – In vivo editing is rare and rich—clinical success would trigger a scramble.

3. Beam (BEAM, 7/10) – Cutting-edge prime editing leaves it ripe for tech-heavy acquirers.

4. Sangamo (SGMO, 6/10) – Its zinc-finger platform and Pfizer ties could drive deal flow.

🧠 Final Take

Big Pharma has taken notice:

• Lilly stepping up suggests acquisition windows are open.

• Clinical validation (base or CRISPR editing with clean safety) is the trigger for paid valuations.

• Regulatory catalysts like accelerated pathways are lowering barriers.

✅ Tactical Strategy

• Primary Positions: CRSP, NTLA, BEAM

• Watch List: SGMO, PGEN

• Adjacent Exposure: SRPT, AVIDITY (SRPT got a boost on regulator momentum)

• Milestone Events: Look for mid-stage data, FDA filings, and Big Pharma collaborations.

This is a high-risk, high-reward arena where clinical proof = acquisition premium. If you're long gene editing, you're betting Lilly's move isn’t an exception but the start of a mainstream adoption wave.

🚨 HEAT Formula Playbook: Themes

🔧 “Steel, Wires, and Winners”:

Why Specialty E&C Might Be the Ultimate Anti-Tech Trade—and Who’s Poised to Dominate

Jefferies came out with a research report positive on Specialty Engineering and Construction. I had GPT take a deep dive to sort out some potential winners and losers……

🧠 Summary of the Jefferies Thesis:

Jefferies is making a high-conviction, fundamentally grounded call: Specialty Engineering & Construction (E&C) firms are undervalued relative to their growth trajectory—even after YTD outperformance. Despite their rerating, Jefferies sees:

• Double-digit cash flow & EPS CAGRs through 2026

• Compelling upside from multi-decade infrastructure, electrification, and energy build-outs

• A skilled labor bottleneck that E&C leaders can now price into contracts

• Sector shift from discount to premium valuation seen as justified and sustainable

And their top pick? MasTec (MTZ).

🔍 Why This Matters

This is not your typical “boring industrials” play. What Jefferies is pointing to is a secular infrastructure and energy renaissance—driven by:

• Grid modernization (NEE, SO, DUK spend ramping)

• High-voltage transmission (765kV builds)

• Gas midstream re-acceleration (pipeline capex returning)

• Renewables navigating policy turbulence, but likely to consolidate around quality operators

This sets up a classic "picks and shovels" theme. The macro mess (Fed policy, energy security, political shifts) is creating chaos for OEMs and asset owners. But the builders? They just invoice every hour of labor.

💥 Sector Highlights from Jefferies

• YTD avg return: +12.1%, well above S&P (+2.6%) and Industrials (+8.7%)

• EPS CAGR (2024–26): +35.8% vs S&P +11.5%

• EBITDA CAGR (2024–26): +16.2% vs S&P/Industrials +9.6%

• Valuation: 22.3x FY2 P/E, a 2.3x premium to S&P 500, which was historically a 2.1x discount—and Jefferies sees that reversal as justified

🏆 Winners

🥇 MasTec (MTZ)

🥇 Quanta Services (PWR)

🥇 Primoris Services (PRIM)

🔻 Losers (or At-Risk)

⚠️ Second-tier E&C firms with weak backlogs

• Strong customer relationships

• Flexible labor pipelines

• Fixed-price exposure discipline
  will lose margin, confidence, and backlog.

⚠️ Overleveraged utilities

If spending gets delayed (e.g., if the IRA is gutted or restructured), then E&C customer capex plans slow.
Watchlist for pressure: AEP, EIX, ED—utilities with higher leverage and regulatory risk.

🔮 The Macro Overlay

👷 Skilled Labor = Margin Gold

Labor is the new scarce commodity. Specialty E&C firms that own pipelines of electricians, welders, and project managers can now price like monopolists in certain verticals.

🔌 Infrastructure = Secular Demand

Between grid reform, gas transmission upgrades, AI datacenter power needs, and energy security reshoring, you can’t avoid E&C exposure if you want to bet on real asset flow.

📊 Multiple Expansion = Justified

Jefferies’ big call is that the valuation rerating is not over. In fact, if EPS growth persists and capex flows continue, the sector deserves a permanent premium to the S&P—not just a cyclical one.

🧠 Final Take:

You’ve got:

• A high-growth, real asset theme

• Policy tailwinds (IRA, permitting reform, utility incentives)

• Labor-driven pricing power

• Superior EPS compounding to tech—and less headline risk

In short: this is the anti-SaaS growth story, and Wall Street is just starting to wake up to it.

📌 Tactical Ideas

• Long MTZ / PWR as core compounders

• Monitor PRIM as a mid-cap breakout with midstream leverage

• Short weak backlog names if rate shocks hit capex plans

• Consider pairing E&C exposure with short overleveraged utilities or REITs that rely on legacy grid power or have poor IRR profiles on electrification

🚨 HEAT Formula Playbook: Themes

⚡️ “Gridlock Meets Gridscale”

Why the Senate’s IRA Revisions Are a Win for Utility-Scale Power—and a Gut Punch to Residential Solar

Jefferies came out with another report yesterday, this one on changes to the IRA, I had GPT take a deep dive here……

🧠 The Core Takeaway

Jefferies views the Senate’s new version of the IRA rollback as a “Goldilocks outcome”—not too hot, not too cold—for the utility-scale energy sector. The revisions:

• Extend key solar and storage tax credits

• Introduce phase-outs that are manageable

• Loosen restrictions on domestic content and foreign entity sourcing

• But largely abandon residential solar hopes

This is a bifurcated outcome: utility-scale developers win, storage wins big, but residential names are left in the dark.

📊 Key Legislative Shifts & Impacts

🔍 Sector Breakdown

🟢 Winners

✅ NEE (NextEra Energy)

The clear #1 winner. Storage incentives locked in through 2033 + clarity on construction timelines = massive development tailwinds.

✅ PWR / MTZ (Quanta, MasTec)

These are the “grid builders.” Extended visibility into large project awards from 2026–2030 plays directly into their backlog thesis. Less risk from FEOC clauses means better margins.

✅ FLNC (Fluence)

Battery storage OEM. Clear IRA runway + softened sourcing rules = business continuity without massive supply chain revamps.

✅ Utility-Scale Solar & Grid Storage Developers

Companies developing solar + storage hybrids (SunPower utility arm, AES, 8minute-type platforms) benefit from storage permanence.

🔴 Losers

🚨 RUN (Sunrun), ENPH (Enphase), SEDG (SolarEdge)

Senate offered no relief for residential leasing provisions. The lack of 48E clarity and leasing eligibility is a body blow. Combine this with FEOC threshold complexity and you have shrinking TAM + margin compression.

🚨 FSLR (First Solar)

Not a loser per se—but the FEOC rule relaxations mean more competition from global solar OEMs. FSLR’s moat was clarity and compliance. That’s now diluted.

⚠️ Hydrogen & SAF Stocks (PLUG, BE, AMTX, GEVO)

The legislation does nothing to extend their timelines. 2025 expiration for 45V is fast approaching. SAF support capped. No new winners here.

🧭 Strategic Implications

⚡️ Utility-Scale Projects Are the New Base Case

With safe harbor through YE2026 and phased phase-outs, developers now have multi-year visibility. The "data center build years" of 2027–2028 align with strong credit support. That's a runway investors can model.

🔋 Storage Becomes IRA’s Golden Child

With 2033 eligibility and no FEOC headwinds, grid-scale battery plays now look like mini renewables REITs—steady projects, clear credits, and locked-in returns.

🧱 FEOC Softening Is Quietly Huge

Instead of blacklisting any foreign-linked supply chain, the new regime allows cost thresholds. That means most solar/storage OEMs just need sourcing discipline—not full redesigns.

🧠 Final Thoughts

This new bill is not the next IRA. But it’s a hell of a lot better than the House version. It stabilizes tax credit flows for solar, extends the runway for storage, and creates margin visibility for E&C firms serving the grid.

It is de-risking the back half of the decade—without the noise of new subsidies. And it tells us that in D.C., grid resilience and power security are bipartisan themes.

📌 Portfolio Angle

• Overweight Utility-Scale Infra Builders: PWR, MTZ

• Overweight Grid Storage OEMs: FLNC

• Cautious on Resi Solar: RUN, ENPH, SEDG

• Monitor: FSLR (pricing moat erosion), H2 stocks for policy relief

• Event Trackers: Reconciliation outcome + guidance from NEE, AES, and TSLA on storage strategy

Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help

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   The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2025 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.