In Today’s Issue:

• Powell says no Fed put

• Trump’s not happy about it

• Gold, Bitcoin, and commodities look like the place to be

• and more……..

Episode 9 of the Rebel Finance Podcast is out, we talked with Frances Stacy about the crazy day in the markets and what investors should be doing now….

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News & Noise

🧠 News:

What technologies are those?

❌ Noise:

What Wall Street Is Saying

Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG….

Mohit Kumar, Jefferies…..

Jefferies…

Is The Fed Put Kaput?

Powell spoke yesterday and he was hawkish, walking back some of the dovish comments that Weller gave (perhaps positioning for a job?). There have been two things that bulls have been clinging too as possibilities, one is some sort of thawing in the trade war, the other was the possibility of either a pre-emptive Fed cut, or more than expected easing. Powell’s statements appeared to kick that leg out.

If the Fed is now out…….

Even though I have been adding equity exposure I was still up yesterday as my hedges expand as volatility expands. I did cut equity exposure as a lot of the undercut and rally patterns I have gotten into failed yesterday. I’m now back to being more net short than I want to be, but caution is warranted and I can add back quickly when the time comes. If this green holds then I will probably add some exposure back today.

While I do think the bottom is in (I could be very wrong about this however) I don’t think we get a V shaped recovery like we did during Covid. If you are a trader then you can trade this market from the long and short side. If you are an investor I would continue to stay out.

More and more I am thinking the areas you want to be in are hard assets and Bitcoin. Gold and the miners have been the strength and is the most crowded trade in the market. I wouldn’t chase, but I would buy on dips. Bitcoin has held up, it’s a risk on asset but it should also be immune from tariffs and declining earnings (There’s a reason I threw an ad for BEGS in here today)…..

Yesterday we also saw relative strength in other commodity areas-aluminum, copper, natural gas, oil drillers, and uranium. I had Chat GPT take a deeper dive on this….

Why Gold, Bitcoin, and Commodities Are the Places to Be Now

🎯 Summary Thesis:

• Gold and Bitcoin are no longer just “alternative” assets—they are now core macro hedges.

• The era of soft money, permanent deficits, and broken fiat discipline is feeding the early stages of a commodity supercycle.

• Precious metals and crypto are just the beginning. A broader move into energy, industrial metals, and hard asset producers is gaining steam.

• This is not a rotation—it’s a regime shift.

🧠 Key Drivers

🧯 1. The Fiat Crisis

• U.S. debt > $36T, annual deficit > $1.6T

• Real yields are negative again; currency credibility is cracking

• Central banks are re-arming stimulus tools despite persistent inflation

🧨 2. Geopolitical Fragmentation

• Global supply chains are breaking and being re-nationalized

• Resource nationalism is rising—countries are hoarding commodities, not exporting them

⚙️ 3. AI Infrastructure Boom

• Massive energy needs (hyperscale data centers)

• New demand for copper, silver, uranium, natural gas

• AI = physical infrastructure = material demand explosion

🛠 4. Structural Underinvestment

• Decade of ESG and QE led to capex starvation in oil, gas, mining

• Now demand is surging just as supply is rigid

🏆 Top Winners (Ranked 1–10 on Forward Asymmetry)

❌ The Likely Losers

1. 60/40 Portfolios

• Bonds are not hedges in this regime.

• Equities are capped by margins + deglobalization.

• Real returns are being eroded by monetary debasement.

2. Consumer Staples / Utilities

• Real yield-sensitive.

• Can’t compete with gold, bitcoin, or even copper on narrative.

3. Import-Heavy Manufacturers

• Tariffs + supply shocks = margin squeeze

• Particularly vulnerable: low-cost Chinese exporters, U.S. retailers with high Asian dependence

🌎 Regional Winners

U.S. AI Infrastructure Builders

• Supermicro (SMCI), Nvidia (domestic capex), CoreWeave, Palantir

Latin America

• Strategic realignment + resource abundance

• Key picks: VALE, PBR, SQM, GGB, EWZ ETF

• Argentina: wildcard upside under Milei

🔮 Strategic Implications

• Hold gold and gold miners aggressively into strength; trim tactically on spikes, rebuy dips.

• Stay long Bitcoin (direct or via miners), especially with the post-halving supply dynamics.

• Lean into copper and uranium for longer duration positioning (2025–2027 story).

• Natural gas is a stealth winner in the AI boom—especially for U.S.-based providers.

• Use dips in commodity names to rotate out of traditional duration-sensitive equity exposure.

⚠️ What Could Derail the Thesis?

• A global depression triggered by delayed Fed cuts + liquidity crunch

• Sudden deflation from a credit event (commercial real estate, banking crisis)

• Policy overcorrection: a Volcker-style inflation hammer

• Regulatory crackdowns on crypto/miners (less likely under Trump)

🧭 Final Take: The Age of Real Things

Precious metals, Bitcoin, and commodities are not just trending—they are becoming the default shelter in a world of unanchored policy. The new supercycle is built on energy, scarcity, and a rejection of financial engineering.

It’s not a trade. It’s a new regime.

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