In Today’s Issue:

• Jobs in focus

• Deep dive on AMZN, AAPL, META, and MSFT earings

• Betting on Trump’s winners

• and more……..

ETF Model Portfolio Changes

We are bringing TBIL down to 25% and adding SPCX at a 5% weighting. Things are starting to move again in the SPAC market. More information here…..

Next Webinar:

Tariffs, Inflation, and Recession: What To Do Now

5/22 2pm EST

Jobs in Focus

Don’t forget about the tax losses also…..

Another positive day on the back of META and MSFT earnings and reports that China could start negotiations soon. Can’t help but agree with Mohit here….

But, the whole back and forth with China make it more difficult than usual to navigate this market. It’s hard to figure out how this back and forth ends…

Today we have the jobs number. My expectation is that it will be a bit weaker than forecast. I’m going to be on News Nation at 7:40AM this morning to talk about it.

Just like the GDP I don’t see this number reflecting the tariffs yet, so I don’t think you get much guidance on what’s really going on in the economy. However, I do think a weakish number gives the Fed shade to lower rates more aggressively, which interestingly enough is what Trump wants.

I think one big takeaway from the recent earnings is that it is safer to start getting back into the AI and AI infrastructure names. Jefferies put out a piece last night….

Had some great earnings from some of the infrastructure names….

I had GPT do quick rundown on AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, and META earnings….

Apple (AAPL)

• Q2 revenue $95.4 B (+5% YoY); EPS $1.65 (+8%)

• Services hit all-time high ($26.6 B); iPhone sales outperformed estimates

• Tariff headwinds in China (~$900 M cost pressure) and modest growth keep us at Hold

• Rating: Short 7/10 Medium 8/10 Long 8/10

Amazon (AMZN)

• Q1 net sales $155.7 B (+9%); AWS $29.3 B (+17%)

• Operating income up sharply on efficiency cuts; Q2 guidance wide amid tariff uncertainty

• Consumer stock-up ahead of potential tariffs noted; mix of strength and caution

• Buy on pullbacks—long-term cloud and e-commerce secular tailwinds

• Rating: Short 6/10 Medium 8/10 Long 9/10

Microsoft (MSFT)

• Q3 revenue $70.1 B (+13%); EPS $3.46 vs. $3.22 est.

• Azure grew 33% (16 pts from AI workloads); raised Azure guidance to 34–35%

• Heavy AI/data-center capex ($21.4 B) underpins long-term moat

• Stellar beat and guidance send shares higher—Buy for all horizons

• Rating: Short 9/10 Medium 9/10 Long 10/10

·Meta (META)

• Q1 revenue $42.3 B (+16%); EPS $6.43 (+37%)

• Ad revenue rebound drives margin to 41%; capex into AI/data centers doubled

• Reality Labs still unprofitable but AI rollout (Meta AI) hits 1 B users

• Aggressive buybacks and strong Q2 guidance—Buy for growth and value

• Rating: Short 8/10 Medium 9/10 Long 8/10

Broader Takeaways

• Resilient spending: Consumer demand (iPhone, e-commerce) and enterprise IT (cloud/AI) remain robust despite rate hikes.

• Tariff watch: U.S.–China tariffs pose a modest near-term risk; supply-chain diversification is in motion.

• AI boom: Massive capex from MSFT and META underscores an AI-driven investment cycle adding to GDP growth.

• Market leadership: Big Tech continues to prop up equity indices, but watch for concentration risk and macro headwinds.

SNOW is an interesting one, we launched a 2x on it the other day (SNOU), I do own a bit. If you like breakouts then you should like SNOW….

One of my biggest focus areas at the moment is Trump’s preferred winners. I did go back into NVDA yesterday on the META and MSFT earnings, but also because he had Jensen speak at the White House. I think Trump will do everything he can to have NVDA come out a winner in all of this. I also agree with Shay……

but this Huawei news is something to keep an eye on…..

Another area of fertile ground for the Trump winners are SPACs, especially Cantor SPACs (Howard Lutnick used to run Cantor and now his kids do)…..

Speaking of Trump themes, European Defense stocks haven’t been in the news much lately, but this theme is still going strong…

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