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Just Kidding
The 🔥H.E.A.T.🔥 Formula : AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio
Matthew Tuttle
April 23, 2025
In Today’s Issue:
Trump backtracks
Matt Tuttle on Schwab Network
Could this be the time to get into biotech?
and more……..
Announcements
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Trump’s Plan For the Economy and How It Impacts Your Investments
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News & Noise
🧠News:
"This market is tradable, but you’ve got to have a lot of patience," @TuttleCapital says on Market On Close with @Cline_Woods.
Plus, he shares what could help traders navigate the wild swings.
— Schwab Network (@SchwabNetwork)
8:01 PM • Apr 22, 2025
TRUMP JUST NOW:
- CHINA TARIFFS WILL COME DOWN
- THEY WON'T BE AS HIGH AS 145% BUT THEY ALSO WON'T BE ZERO
- I WON'T PLAY HARDBALL WITH CHINA
looks like Bessent saying we needed to bring down the tone with China might be working
markets like it, $SPX +.35% after hours
— amit (@amitisinvesting)
9:22 PM • Apr 22, 2025
BESSENT TO SPEAK TOMORROW AT 10AM ON STATE OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine)
7:08 PM • Apr 22, 2025
WHITE HOUSE CLOSE TO JAPAN, INDIA TRADE FRAMEWORKS — FINAL DEALS MAY TAKE MONTHS
The U.S. is nearing early trade understandings with Japan and India aimed at pausing steep tariffs, according to Politico. These would take the form of memorandums or “deal frameworks” rather than
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine)
5:13 PM • Apr 22, 2025
❌ Noise:
Mystery? It’s pretty obvious
Simple, don’t be in bonds.
What Wall Street Is Saying
Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG…
From a tactical standpoint, that skews the risk/reward back to the favorable side. To be clear, we don't see this as a final bottom, but if you are trading the range, some relief from here is probable. From a cross-asset standpoint, the set-up is there for some key reversals in the dollar and gold. We have been offsides on the gold call of late, but with it 27% above its 200 DMA, that puts it in the top .5% most extended moves over the last 30 years.
Mohit Kumar, Jefferies…..
Trump appears to be backpedaling on the two battles he cannot win - China and Powell. Over the last few days we have stressed the view that Trump cannot win the battle about firing Powell or the trade standoff with China, and we expected him to take a step back. We would read Trump's comments that he has no intention of firing the Fed Chair as not that he suddenly took a liking to Powell, but because he realized that he cannot fire the Fed Chair at will.
On the China trade front, the process is likely to be more long drawn-out. Our view remains that Trump will need to back down and an eventual deal will be reached, but in a way that both Trump and China can claim victory in front of their electorates. The path, however, may be accompanied by more headline risk.
Mike O’Rourke, Jones Trading…..
The Treasury Secretary stating that the situation with China is unsustainable is indicative that the United States is not holding the cards it believed it was. Such headlines provide new leverage to China. If the Politico story comes to fruition, it would be a capitulation in disguise, where the Administration starts announcing deals with details to be named later. If it happens on a widespread basis, then everyone licks their wounds and moves on from this episode. That is likely the best path forward for the President and investors. Interestingly, every time the equity market rallies on nonsense headlines, it reinforces the President’s hand, reducing the urgency to get deals done. Secretary Bessent speaks at 10 a.m. ET tomorrow; hopefully, material insight emerges.
Just Kidding
Hmmm, wonder what caused the rally today?
— Matthew Tuttle (@TuttleCapital)
7:56 PM • Apr 22, 2025
So after hours yesterday Trump said he will take down tariffs on China and he won’t fire Powell. If this sticks, and it’s a big IF, then you can be more active trading the market from the long side. I would still be very careful however. Monday’s low now looks like it could be a higher low in an uptrend, it also becomes critical support…..
It also looks like we will break the 10 and 20 day this morning, those also become critical support areas. As long as all these levels hold you can add longs.
Any thing can happen from here, and anything Trump said last night could be walked back. For now I am looking at gold and silver miners and crypto names. However, if this turns into a real rally then I will go where the charts take me.
Gold miners are down after hours, I would see if any of them rally into support areas and form tradeable patterns. An undercut and rally at the 10 or 20 day for GDX for example could be interesting….
I am cognizant that this could quickly turn into a short trade instead of a long trade. Gold is extremely crowded and if everyone heads to the exits at the same time it could get ugly.
I did buy silver miner PAAS on an undercut and rally at the 10 day, and will be watching the other silver miners…..
In crypto related I added HOOD and COIN…..
Why I like Bitcoin AND Gold is that now Bitcoin can morph into a risk on asset while Gold still offers protection if this rally fails.
Another area that now becomes more interesting is TLT….
We know that Trump wants lower rates but he probably can’t fire Powell who is seemingly hawkish. On the other hand, more trade war certainty means that something probably doesn’t break and the Fed worries less about inflation.
I’m not in it, but META had an undercut and rally yesterday and could be buyable here. I will be watching this one closely tomorrow…..
A few days back I wrote about industrial metals, they are now looking more interesting…
Chinese stocks could also get interesting again. I got back into GDS….
Keep an eye on the midcap defense names, they were the strength before the tariff news took everything down. I did a write up on these a while back and will revisit if they start to look more interesting.
I also bought a couple of AI biotech companies, more on that below
AI in Biotech
one thing to note today, I saw biotech put sales galore. That hasn't happened in a while so a possible datapoint that we may be into a period of up markets.
— jbulltard (@jbulltard1)
5:05 PM • Apr 22, 2025
Jensen Huang and Marc Andreessen have both said that they believe the area that will benefit most from AI is biotech. A lot of this is a way out, but this is an area I have been keeping an eye on and have an ETF launching around soon. I’m out of all my exposure but this tweet caught my eye. This guy is an expert on sorting through option flow, so if he is seeing bullish behavior in the biotech’s I am going to listen. I do actually like some of the charts and picked up RXRX yesterday…..
And TEM….
I had Chat GPT create a watchlist with ratings…
Rank | Ticker | Company | Score (1–10) | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | RXRX | Recursion Pharmaceuticals | 10 | True AI-first biotech. Uses deep learning + computer vision to map biology. Partnered with NVIDIA + Roche + Bayer. 500B+ biological images powering LLM-style biology model. |
2 | TEM | Tempus AI | 9.5 | Uses AI in clinical trial design, diagnostics, and oncology. Recently IPO’d. Huge genomic + clinical dataset advantage. Partnered with pharma + health systems. |
3 | DNLI | Denali Therapeutics | 8.5 | Partnered with Tempus to use AI to accelerate neurology drug development. Strong biology + data science fusion. |
4 | CRSP | CRISPR Therapeutics | 8.5 | Uses machine learning for CRISPR guide RNA optimization + off-target prediction. AI key to scaling next-gen gene editing. |
5 | VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals | 8.0 | Partnered with Nvidia, Flagship, and others. Heavy AI use in protein modeling and rare disease targeting. AI-enabled drug discovery pipeline. |
6 | BEAM | Beam Therapeutics | 7.5 | Pioneering base editing + AI to refine target selection + safety modeling. High future potential. |
7 | SDGR | Schrödinger | 7.5 | Physics-based modeling + machine learning to design better molecules. Hybrid platform used in-house + licensed to others. Long R&D cycle but defensible IP. |
8 | ABCL | AbCellera Biologics | 7.0 | Uses AI + microfluidics to identify antibodies faster. Partnered with Eli Lilly, Moderna. Big dataset and good tech. |
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