We are ringing the closing bell on the CBOE 5/8 in Chicago for BEGS. If you are in the area and would like to attend let me know.

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Rebel Finance Podcast-Episode 7 is out, we talk to former NBA player Kris Humphries about his post basketball businesses, crypto, and investing.

Market Recap

No real playbook for what’s going on, my sense is that Trump and Lutnick saying this is not a negotiation is Art of the Deal stuff. Countries could start to cave and we come right back up, countries start to fight and we have more downside. Parade of people on the financial stations saying if you are a long term investors these are great spots to buy, maybe. I’m not a long term investor and I’m net short and mostly in cash, highly doubtful I will do anything but sit on my hands.

Jobs number and Powell speaking later.

Wall Street Is Rewriting Its Energy-Sector Playbook-Bloomberg

Energy is one of my favorite topics, and investing sectors. I had GPT take a deep dive on the article…..

🔍 THE BIG SHIFT: WALL STREET’S ENERGY RESET

The U.S. energy-finance complex—historically a battleground between ESG advocates and traditionalists—is undergoing a seismic reversal. Trump’s return to the White House is the catalyst for a full-fledged financial regime shift: from climate-conscious capital allocation to unapologetic fossil fuel support. Wall Street is following the money.

📉 SHORT-TERM IMPLICATIONS (0–12 Months)

✅ Winners:

• U.S. Oil & Gas Majors (e.g., Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips): They’ll enjoy cheaper and more abundant access to capital.

• Midstream & Infrastructure Players (e.g., Kinder Morgan, Williams Cos.): New pipeline and LNG terminal projects could get greenlighted.

• Private Equity/Energy Credit Funds: Positioned to scoop up distressed or offloaded high-carbon assets from EU banks.

• Regional Banks & Red-State States: Lenders favored under new federal guidance like the Fair Access to Banking Act will thrive in fossil-friendly jurisdictions (e.g., Texas, North Dakota).

❌ Losers:

• Green Tech & Startups: Especially those not yet profitable—now at risk of capital flight.

• European Banks with U.S. Operations: Will face identity crises, caught between EU regulations and U.S. profitability pressures.

• Net-Zero Initiatives: NZBA and similar alliances are on life support, with their credibility waning fast.

🧠 Strategic Insight:

Markets will reward dirty energy again—at least in the short term. ESG funds may underperform as capital flows rotate out. Activist backlash and protests will rise, but won’t move price. Expect immediate rerating of fossil-heavy credit and equity.

🪞INTERMEDIATE TERM (1–3 Years)

✅ Winners:

• U.S. Investment Banks: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo are setting themselves up to dominate energy underwriting again—especially if they become primary lenders to new oil projects (e.g., Arctic drilling).

• Energy-Heavy ETFs: Like XLE, FENY, or targeted fossil-heavy thematic ETFs could outperform if oil stays supported by policy tailwinds.

• Red-State Municipalities: They’ll reward banks dropping climate pledges with more bond deals, like we’re already seeing in Texas.

❌ Losers:

• Clean Energy Funds: The capital drying up could lead to consolidation, bankruptcies, and slowing innovation in solar, wind, and battery tech.

• European Moral Capitalists: ESG-oriented asset managers and banks lose leverage unless they can show real returns.

• Global Climate Diplomacy: The U.S. pivot weakens any unified climate front—making COP-style deals less relevant.

🧠 Strategic Insight:

We’re entering a bifurcated financial system: U.S. money chases energy profits, while Europe clings to ESG mandates. This will distort global capital flows and drive geographic divergence in valuations.

🪐 LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS (3–10 Years)

✅ Winners:

• Resource Sovereignty Countries: Canada, Brazil, and Middle Eastern nations benefit as the West reverts to fossil security.

• Climate-Focused Short Sellers: Eventually, some of today’s fossil projects could become stranded assets—creating asymmetric short opportunities.

• Energy Tech Hybrid Innovators: Players who blend fossil fuel cash flows with clean tech R&D may dominate in the 2030s (think: Occidental Petroleum’s carbon capture bet).

❌ Losers:

• Planetary Stability: A 2–3°C warming scenario becomes more likely, with GDP impact (–12% per +1°C) and rising disaster-driven inflation.

• Insurance & Reinsurance Markets: Catastrophic risks become uninsurable in some geographies—hurting long-duration fixed income, real estate, and coastal property values.

• ESG Narrative: "Moral investing" gets replaced by "market reality." If morality doesn’t drive capital, price will rule.

🧠 Strategic Insight:

Energy and climate will define geopolitical and market cycles. Expect long-term macro volatility. As warming accelerates, expect a reversion to climate-aligned investing out of necessity—but only after pain forces action.

💣 BOTTOM LINE:

This is a new energy regime—Wall Street is trading morality for margin. That spells opportunity for contrarians.

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