Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since.
That’s why we created a new approach — The H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth.
Table of Contents
🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now
The jobs number came out much cooler than expected, which as first was a positive, then it was a negative, then it was neutral.
Its certain that the Fed will cut this month and the 10 year is at it lowest rate since March. so I guess the fact that job growth is slowing is a positive.
Keep an eye on this. If the bond vigilante’s don’t want long term bonds then we will have a problem…..
We have PPI and CPI this week so yields will likely be in play.
The most interest thing I noticed on Friday was the Broadcom news driving down AMD and NVDA. NVDA has been hurting since it’s earnings, but moved well below it’s 50 day on Friday……
Talking more about semi conductors……..
🧠 “Nano-chips made in the U.S.” — Hype or investable theme?
🇺🇸 The CHIPS and Science Act — What It Is & Why It Matters
What it is:
Enacted in 2022, the CHIPS and Science Act is a $280B U.S. industrial policy package, with roughly $52B carved out to reshore semiconductor manufacturing, R&D, and workforce training. It also includes $24B in tax credits for chip plant investments.Why it exists:
In 1990, the U.S. produced ~37% of the world’s semiconductors. Today it’s <12%, and 0% of advanced leading-edge chips (<10nm).
Heavy reliance on Taiwan (TSMC) and South Korea (Samsung, SK Hynix) is seen as a national security risk, especially with rising U.S.–China tensions.
Chips aren’t just for iPhones—they’re the core inputs for AI, defense systems, EVs, medical devices, and cloud computing.
Why it matters for investors:
Massive public + private capital wave: Intel, TSMC, Micron, Texas Instruments, and GlobalFoundries have committed hundreds of billions in U.S. fabs to capture subsidies.
Advanced packaging bottleneck: The U.S. doesn’t just want fabs—it wants the ability to do 2.5D/3D packaging domestically, which is critical for AI accelerators.
Secures supply chains: De-risks U.S. companies from geopolitics, tariffs, and export controls.
Creates investable opportunities: Foundries, memory makers, and “picks & shovels” (equipment, EDA, advanced packaging) all stand to benefit.
👉 In short: The CHIPS Act is Washington’s moonshot to bring cutting-edge nano-chip production and packaging back to U.S. soil. It’s a structural investment theme, not a one-off subsidy.
What’s real
There isn’t a single “go-live” flip date. The U.S. semiconductor rebuild is a multi-year rollout across fabs, advanced packaging, and lab-to-fab programs funded by the CHIPS Act. The DoD’s Microelectronics Commons hubs (eight regions) were announced in Sept-2023 to accelerate U.S. prototyping — helpful, but not a one-day catalyst. U.S. Department of Defense+1
The backbone: Commerce/NIST CHIPS ($50B) for R&D, manufacturing incentives, and the National Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program (NAPMP), which finalized $1.4B in awards to stand up domestic advanced packaging so advanced-node chips are made and packaged in the U.S. NIST+2NIST+2
Why “nano-chips” is the right theme
In practice “nano” = leading-edge logic (3nm, 2nm class) + advanced packaging (2.5D/3D). The investable story is the on-shoring of both logic and packaging:
Micron: CHIPS awards support a $100B NY and $50B ID vision; Commerce says the plan aims to lift U.S. advanced memory share from ~0% to ~10% over the next decade. NIST+1
GlobalFoundries: up to $1.5B in direct CHIPS funding to expand current-gen U.S. production (NY/VT) — crucial for “everything-else” nodes that feed autos, RF, and power. NIST+1
Advanced packaging (critical bottleneck): Amkor is building a $2B advanced packaging/test “mega-plant” in Peoria, AZ, with TSMC contracting turnkey CoWoS/InFO services there; production targeted for 2028 (realistic time frame for relief). Amkor TechnologyTom's Hardware
Bottom line: The U.S. “nano-chip” theme is real and investable — just staggered over several years, with packaging and labor as pacing items.
🏆 Winner rankings (1–10) — who benefits most
Foundries & memory
Intel (INTC) — 9/10
TSMC (TSM; U.S. ops) — 9/10
Micron (MU) — 8.5/10
Flagship memory reshoring (NY/ID) backed by CHIPS; roadmap targets U.S. share of advanced memory up materially this decade. Watch: cap phasing, HBM/DRAM mix in U.S. output. NIST+1
GlobalFoundries (GFS) — 7.5/10
CHIPS-backed current-gen capacity (RF, auto, IoT). Not “nano” logic, but indispensable volume nodes — more stable earnings through cycles. NIST+1
Advanced packaging & OSAT
Amkor (AMKR) — 8.5/10
The domestic CoWoS/InFO bridge; a direct solution to the U.S. packaging gap, with TSMC commitment. Timeline to 2028 = patience required; payoff can be large. Amkor TechnologyTom's Hardware
This is a stock I added on Friday. Looking at the weekly chart it looks interesting….
U.S. equipment & EDA “picks & shovels”
Applied Materials (AMAT) — 8.5/10
Lam Research (LRCX) — 8/10
KLA (KLAC) — 8/10
Every new fab/packaging line must buy tools and metrology. Domestic builds + Export controls that favor U.S. vendors = sustained order books. (General CHIPS context) NIST
Cadence (CDNS) / Synopsys (SNPS) — 8/10
Every tape-out pays the toll. On-shoring does not change that — if anything, more U.S. prototypes/tape-outs from Commons hubs and NAPMP work streams. U.S. Department of DefenseNIST
Regional R&D / Lab-to-fab enablers (non-pure plays for public markets)
Microelectronics Commons hubs (DoD) — strategic tailwind
Speeds prototyping and workforce pipelines (Arizona/ASU hub funding + Stanford/NW hub). Catalyzes local ecosystems around new fabs. ASU NewsStanford News
⚠️ Potential losers / headwinds
Offshore OSATs without a U.S. footprint — If packaging migrates stateside (NAPMP + Amkor AZ), Taiwan-/ASEAN-centric packaging share could cede high-end work to U.S. capacity over time. NIST
China-exposed tool vendors — Tightening export controls push premium WFE demand toward U.S./allied fabs, potentially squeezing China-only suppliers. (Policy-driven; monitor Commerce updates) NIST
Long-dated timelines — U.S. workforce and permitting are constraints; Amkor AZ production ~2028 signals that advanced packaging relief is coming, but not tomorrow. Near-term “date calls” are suspect. Tom's Hardware
How I’d trade the theme (12–36 months)
Core barbell
Foundry/memory: INTC, TSM (ADR), MU, GFS (exposure to U.S. logic + memory buildout).
Picks & shovels: AMAT, LRCX, KLAC (tools/metrology), CDNS/SNPS (EDA).
Packaging torque
AMKR for advanced packaging on-shoring (with TSMC linkage). Amkor Technology
Policy tape to watch (real catalysts, not rumor dates)
New CHIPS incentive announcements and loan finalizations from Commerce/NIST. NIST
NAPMP project awards & expansions (who’s getting U.S. CoWoS/Hybrid-Bonding at scale). NIST
Microelectronics Commons hub awards, workforce grants, and first tape-out milestones. U.S. Department of Defense
Site-specific updates — TSMC AZ fab progress, Intel Ohio/AZ tool-in, Micron NY groundbreaking phases, Amkor AZ construction milestones. TSMCTSMCNewsroomTom's Hardware
The “nano-chip made in America” story is real — just not a one-day event. It’s a multi-year on-shoring of leading-edge logic and advanced packaging, with Intel, TSMC, Micron, GlobalFoundries, Amkor and the U.S. tool/EDA complex as the prime beneficiaries. Ignore arbitrary “go-live” dates; follow CHIPS awards, packaging build-outs, and fab tool-ins for the real catalysts.
The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover
Tue, Sep 30, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT |
-Why the 60/40 strategy is dead and what to do instead
- How to use AI to uncover today and tomorrow's hottest themes
- 4 unknown edges that still exist in today's market
- How to set up your portfolio for asymmetrical returns
- Little-known asset class that has limited risk and potentially unlimited returns
- 4 ways to hedge your portfolio that don't include bonds
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📈 Stock Corner
Today’s stock is Qualcomm (QCOM)….
Trying to break out of range, a true breakout would be a close over $162.50
From Chat GPT…..
Qualcomm (QCOM) — 8.5/10
Dominant in smartphone/edge inference chips.
Snapdragon platforms already integrate AI NPUs used in billions of devices.
Secular exposure: smartphones, AR/VR, automotive.
Why it qualifies: global scale, distribution, recurring design wins = durable cash + AI optionality.
📬 In Case You Missed It
More pushback against 60/40…..
None of these alternatives are great, they all include large bond holdings. Expect a filing from us soon on a much better alternative.
🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help
ETFs: The Antidote to Wall Street
Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know
Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy
Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled
Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge
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