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Rebel Finance Podcast-Episode 4 is Out

Episode 5 will live stream Thursday from 11:30AM to 12:30PM EST at the link below

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOxEVkvPaL4

Market Recap

Fed Extends Pause on Rates, Cuts Outlook for Growth-WSJ

Not sure that was a dovish Fed meeting, seemed confused more than anything, but the market seemed to like it. Often more important is the day after FOMC and so far this morning futures are green. So $549.68 could be a near term low, or the low, or we could be just forming a bear flag, time will tell.

For now I will operate under the impression that we have hit a near term low until proven otherwise. However, I find the idea of a V shaped rally back unlikely, which has me thinking more about risk reversals. I’ve been selling more cash covered puts than I normally do, as I think upside will be limited for a bit, but if we bottomed a risk reversal strategy could be a better idea. In a risk reversal you sell an out of the money put and use the proceeds to buy a call. I hardly ever do this, but if we flatline I can set up the trade to break even or bring in some premium and I have unlimited upside if we do V. Drawback is pretty massive downside on the sold puts, so you need to be careful there. In today’s investing lesson of the day below I take a deep dive into this topic.

Back to the market, kind of uninspiring for the Mag 7 and tech in general, so I continue to like the “stuff” stocks. FCX is a name I talked about the other day….

AA is another one…..

I also continue to love energy…

Talking energy today on the podcast as well. Here’s an under the radar screen name I like……

Bottom line, as long as we stay above Thursday’s low you can dip your toes back into this market. If Thursday’s low is taken out then it’s a different story.

Investing Lesson of the Day: Risk Reversals

Here's a detailed evaluation and rating of the three option strategies given your current market outlook (market likely bottomed, uncertain of V-shaped recovery, potential sideways trading):

Market Environment and Objectives

• Outlook: Near-term bottom likely set; however, no imminent V-shaped recovery expected.

• Market Action: Sideways or range-bound action possible.

• Volatility: Moderately elevated, likely decreasing or stabilizing in the short term.

• Goal: Benefit from a sideways-to-slightly bullish scenario, while mitigating downside risks and controlling capital outlays.

Strategy Evaluation

1. Selling an Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Put

• Definition: You sell a put at a strike below the current stock price.

• Benefits:

  • Collect immediate premium, generating income.

  • Can profit even if stock price remains flat or increases slightly.

  • Time decay works in your favor.

• Risks:

  • Exposure to significant downside if the stock falls sharply, as you are obligated to buy at the strike price.

  • Limited upside potential (maximum profit capped by premium received).

• Market Suitability:

  • Strong fit for your view of a near-term bottom and sideways consolidation.

  • Beneficial in stable or gradually rising markets, less ideal if volatility spikes significantly.

• Capital Outlay:

  • No upfront cost, but requires margin collateral.

• Overall Rating: 8/10

  • Ideal for your scenario, but watch downside exposure carefully.

2. Buying a Near-the-Money (NTM) Call

• Definition: Purchase a call at or just above the current stock price.

• Benefits:

  • Unlimited upside potential if stock rallies significantly.

  • Defined downside risk (limited to the premium paid).

• Risks:

  • Premium decay (time decay, theta) works against you.

  • Requires meaningful upward movement soon to break even and become profitable.

• Market Suitability:

  • Excellent if a V-shaped recovery or significant move upwards occurs quickly.

  • Poor fit if the stock remains sideways due to premium erosion.

• Capital Outlay:

  • Upfront premium paid, can be relatively expensive.

• Overall Rating: 5/10

  • Not ideal for your base scenario of sideways action; good for strong bullish moves, but less effective in flat markets.

3. Risk Reversal (Selling OTM Put + Buying NTM Call)

• Definition: Sell an OTM put to finance buying a call near-the-money.

• Three Scenarios:

  • Done at zero cost: Premium collected from put exactly covers cost of call.

  • Done for a credit: Put premium exceeds call premium; net income upfront.

  • Done for a debit: Call premium exceeds put premium; pay net premium upfront.

• Benefits:

  • Leveraged upside exposure with significantly reduced upfront cost (or possibly net income).

  • Aligns closely with your view of bottoming and potential upside.

  • Premium from put reduces or eliminates call cost and mitigates time decay.

• Risks:

  • Still substantial downside risk from short put if stock significantly falls below strike.

  • If the stock remains completely flat, the call premium decays; you could incur losses (especially in the debit scenario).

• Market Suitability:

  • Very well aligned with your outlook of sideways-to-modestly bullish.

  • Capitalizes on potential market upside while significantly controlling costs.

  • Requires confidence in the support or bottom established in the stock.

• Capital Outlay:

  • Highly flexible: can structure to pay nothing upfront, receive a credit, or pay a small debit.

• Overall Ratings:

  • Zero-cost Risk Reversal: 9/10 (Balances cost, risk, and reward effectively.)

  • Credit Risk Reversal: 9.5/10 (Optimal for your scenario, immediate premium inflow, leveraged upside exposure.)

  • Debit Risk Reversal: 7.5/10 (Reduced effectiveness due to upfront cost and higher breakeven; less attractive if sideways action dominates.)

Summary of Rankings (1-10 Scale)

Recommended Approach:

Given your current market thesis (bottom likely but uncertain upward trajectory), the Risk Reversal structured for a Credit emerges as the most compelling approach. It offers:

• Immediate premium inflow (positive carry).

• Reduced upfront risk and premium decay compared to outright call buying.

• Leverage for meaningful upside if the market eventually rebounds.

• Attractive risk profile as long as the downside remains limited due to the established bottom.

If downside risks concern you, consider moderately lower strike prices for the short put to increase margin of safety while still maintaining favorable overall positioning.

Nvidia GTC Keynote 2025: Key Takeaways and Implications

At Nvidia's highly anticipated GTC event, CEO Jensen Huang delivered a visionary keynote that underscored the transformative potential of AI across multiple industries, outlining profound implications for investors and reshaping competitive landscapes. Here, we unpack the pivotal insights from Huang's keynote, spotlighting clear winners and potential losers in the emerging AI-driven economy.

A $1 Trillion AI Infrastructure Opportunity

Jensen Huang revealed Nvidia's ambitious projection that global AI data center spending will hit a staggering $1 trillion by 2030, significantly earlier than many expected. This spending surge is fueled by a massive shift toward accelerated computing, particularly GPUs, which are rapidly replacing traditional CPUs due to their superior performance for AI tasks. Nvidia's newest Blackwell GPUs are central to this revolution—already, major cloud providers have ordered 3.6 million units, surpassing last year's total Hopper GPU sales by nearly threefold.

Companies best positioned to benefit from this accelerated infrastructure build-out include cloud giants Amazon (AWS), Microsoft (Azure), Google Cloud, and Oracle. In contrast, traditional CPU makers and smaller cloud infrastructure providers could struggle to keep pace.

Revolutionizing Inference and Reasoning Compute with Dynamo

To address growing demands from "AI factories"—data centers designed to generate AI-driven outputs rather than simply storing information—Nvidia introduced Dynamo. This groundbreaking software optimizes inference workloads, enabling up to 40 times the AI throughput of previous systems. Dynamo efficiently manages resources across GPUs, dramatically lowering the cost per AI task and opening the door to more advanced and economically viable AI applications.

Companies leveraging Dynamo stand to gain significantly, especially enterprises running massive, complex reasoning models. Those slow to adopt advanced inference solutions risk becoming obsolete in a competitive marketplace increasingly defined by rapid, accurate AI interactions.

Game-Changing Silicon Photonics Networking Solutions

Recognizing networking bottlenecks in large-scale AI deployments, Nvidia unveiled Quantum-X and Spectrum-X switches, which employ cutting-edge silicon photonics (SiPho) and co-packaged optics technology. These solutions drastically improve bandwidth while reducing power consumption, effectively enabling large-scale AI deployments that were previously constrained by energy and performance limitations.

Clear beneficiaries of Nvidia's new networking infrastructure include partners like Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR), and TSMC (TSM), each providing critical components. Traditional networking companies such as Arista Networks (ANET) and Marvell (MRVL) may need to rapidly innovate to keep pace with Nvidia's integrated solutions.

Emergence of the AI PC

Huang also introduced the next frontier: the AI-powered personal computer. Nvidia's DGX GH200 Workstation, featuring the Grace CPU and Blackwell GPUs, positions itself as the ultimate AI workstation, directly challenging high-end solutions like Apple's Mac Pro. Major OEMs including Dell, HP, and Lenovo are already lined up to distribute these AI-powered PCs, highlighting the burgeoning market potential.

Companies well-aligned with this trend include Microsoft, AMD, Dell, and Lenovo. Apple, conversely, faces potential threats in the high-end workstation segment if creative professionals pivot toward Nvidia-powered PCs.

Robotics: Nvidia's Next Big Bet

Perhaps most excitingly, Jensen Huang identified robotics as potentially Nvidia's largest long-term market. Anticipating significant advancements within just a few years, Huang projected widespread adoption of humanoid robots, especially in structured environments like manufacturing. Nvidia's robust AI platforms, software ecosystems, and specialized robotics hardware position it as a central player in the emerging robotics economy.

Companies positioned to benefit include industrial robotics giants like ABB and Fanuc, autonomous vehicle developers such as General Motors and Tesla, and AI-focused robotics startups leveraging Nvidia's solutions. Conversely, robotics companies not aligned with Nvidia's robust AI ecosystems may find themselves at a competitive disadvantage.

Autonomous Vehicles and the GM Partnership

Highlighting a major industry shift, Nvidia announced a strategic partnership with General Motors to power its next generation of self-driving vehicles. This significant win solidifies Nvidia's status as the leading provider of AI-powered autonomous vehicle technologies, directly challenging competitors like Mobileye and Qualcomm.

Companies closely collaborating with Nvidia, including Mercedes-Benz and Hyundai/Kia, stand to significantly enhance their autonomous driving capabilities. Mobileye, previously a leading provider for GM, faces considerable headwinds due to this strategic realignment.

Strategic Winners and Losers

Huang’s GTC announcements have far-reaching implications across industries, creating new winners and losers among publicly traded companies:

• Big Cloud Platforms (Winners): The hyperscalers – Amazon (AWS), Microsoft (Azure), Google Cloud, Oracle – are investing heavily in Nvidia’s AI hardware to offer cloud AI services. They collectively ordered 3.6 million Blackwell GPUs​

  , positioning themselves to capture the surging demand for AI computing. Those with the largest GPU fleets can attract enterprise AI customers, so cloud providers embracing Nvidia (and even partnering on supercomputer builds) will benefit. Nvidia’s roadmap (Blackwell now, Rubin in 2026, Feynman in 2028) gives them confidence to plan large AI data centers years ahead​. Losers: Smaller cloud firms or on-prem server vendors that can’t afford this scale may struggle to compete in AI services.

• Semiconductor Partners (Winners): Companies enabling Nvidia’s tech are poised to ride its growth. Taiwan Semi (TSMC), as the manufacturer for Nvidia’s 5nm and 3nm GPUs and now its silicon photonics engines, will benefit from enormous wafer orders​. Memory makers like Micron (MU) also win – high-bandwidth memory (HBM3/HBM4) is critical for Blackwell and beyond, and Nvidia’s $1T data center vision means tens of billions in memory demand. In networking, Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent (COHR) are clear winners – they are supplying lasers and photonic components for Nvidia’s new switches​, which could become an industry standard for AI clusters. Their expertise in optical interconnects becomes more valuable as the market shifts to co-packaged optics. Fabrinet (FN), a contract manufacturer for optical and electronic components, may also see increased business assembling Nvidia’s advanced modules (it’s a key supplier to Coherent and Lumentum, so indirectly it gains from their growth). Losers: Conversely, networking players reliant on older technology face risks. Marvell (MRVL), for example, has been developing CPO and DPUs, but Nvidia’s in-house networking might limit Marvell’s market. Similarly, traditional switch-chip makers like Broadcom (AVGO) could lose socket share if AI customers favor Nvidia’s Spectrum-X over third-party Ethernet silicon – though Broadcom is so diversified it may offset elsewhere.

• Enterprise Software & HPC (Winners): Nvidia’s full-stack approach lifts certain software firms. Partners like Ansys (ANSS) and Cadence (CDNS) (who worked with Nvidia on CUDA-SS for engineering simulation) gain access to GPUs and AI for their customers​. This can make their software faster and more appealing, driving sales. Companies that build on Nvidia’s AI frameworks – for instance, those offering AI-enabled software services – benefit from Nvidia’s constant performance improvements. Even cloud SaaS businesses could win: if they use Nvidia GPUs through partners, they can offer more powerful AI features to clients. Losers: Companies offering solely CPU-based software or not adopting AI could fall behind. For example, a legacy simulation software that doesn’t utilize GPU acceleration might lose market share to one that does with Nvidia’s help.

• PC and Device Makers (Winners): Dell, HP, Lenovo and others partnering to sell AI workstations should see a new revenue stream. These high-end PCs will command premium prices and help offset the decline in traditional PC demand. AMD (to a degree) might also benefit on the CPU side – Nvidia’s Grace CPU is entering the arena, but AMD’s EPYC and even client CPUs could ride the AI PC wave if more GPUs are sold (each GPU-rich system still needs a host CPU, often a high-core-count one, and AMD is competitive there). Also, Microsoft (MSFT) could benefit indirectly – if AI PCs take off, Windows will be a major platform for them, and Microsoft’s AI initiatives (Copilot, etc.) will perform better, potentially driving Windows upgrades. Losers: Apple (AAPL) could face a niche loss – its Mac Pro and high-end Mac workstations, which use Apple’s own M-series chips, may not compete well for AI-heavy workloads. Huang explicitly said Nvidia’s AI workstation is what a PC should be, contrasting it with Macs​. If creative professionals or scientists gravitate to DGX stations for AI, Apple might lose some high-margin Mac sales to these Windows/Linux AI PCs.

• Automakers & Autonomous Tech (Winners): Automakers that ally with Nvidia are positioned to leap ahead in self-driving capabilities. General Motors (GM), with its Nvidia partnership, can accelerate deployment of robotaxis and Level 4 systems, potentially catching up to leaders like Tesla and Waymo. This could positively impact GM’s future mobility business (Cruise) and even its core vehicles if it offers superior ADAS. Other Nvidia-aligned carmakers like Mercedes-Benz (which plans to use Nvidia Drive for all vehicles from 2024 on) should also benefit – they can monetize advanced driving features and even subscriptions (e.g. Drive Pilot Level 3). Losers: Mobileye (MBLY) is a clear loser in this shift – it risks losing design wins for next-gen autonomy as Nvidia scoops them up. After already losing Tesla years ago, Mobileye now faces Nvidia encroaching on premium OEMs that were once Mobileye’s clientele. Its stock has reflected these competitive concerns. Tier-1 auto suppliers that haven’t partnered up could also suffer; for instance, if companies like Bosch or Continental were pushing their own ADAS computers, they might find fewer takers as OEMs opt for Nvidia’s proven solution. And Qualcomm could see its ambitions in automotive curtailed if Snapdragon Ride doesn’t secure as many major customers – though it still has time to compete.

• Robotics & AI Startups (Winners): A wide array of robotics companies stand to gain from Nvidia’s robotics focus. Firms like ABB (industrial robots) and Teradyne (owns Universal Robots, a cobot maker) could see their robots get smarter and more useful by integrating Nvidia’s AI chips and SDKs. This could boost sales as robotics ROI improves. Tesla (TSLA), although doing a lot in-house, indirectly benefits too – Nvidia’s advancements in AI can spill over (Tesla trains AI on Nvidia GPUs, and if humanoid robots become mainstream acceptable, Tesla’s Optimus concept is validated). Startup winners include those in the Nvidia Inception program or using Jetson modules – they can go to market faster without building core AI tech from scratch. Losers: Companies that bet against Nvidia’s ecosystem. If a robotics startup chose a non-Nvidia platform and that platform lags, they could be left behind. Also, some factory automation firms that are slow to adopt AI might lose business to those that embrace Nvidia’s tech (for example, a traditional conveyor/PLC company could lose to a robotics solution powered by AI vision). It’s also possible that incumbent industrial computer suppliers (those providing x86 systems for robots) lose design wins to Nvidia’s Jetson/Orin if the industry standardizes on Nvidia for robot brains.

• Nvidia Itself (Big Winner): It may sound obvious, but Nvidia emerges as the biggest winner from its GTC announcements. The company is leveraging its dominant position in AI chips to expand into new markets (networking, PCs, robotics, telecom) and solidify its hold on data center computing. Its projection of $1T AI spend by 2030​ underlines the huge TAM (Total Addressable Market) it is targeting. Every new platform or software it announced (Dynamo, Spectrum-X, Grace Blackwell systems, etc.) extends its reach. If these bets pay off, Nvidia won’t just be a GPU maker; it will be a central supplier for cloud infrastructure, industrial automation, vehicles, and even consumer devices. The stock market has recognized this to some extent (NVDA’s valuation soared in the past year), but Huang’s vision suggests there’s potentially much more growth ahead. Risk for others: The more Nvidia wins across segments, the more other companies might be squeezed out or forced into niche roles. This “winner-take-most” dynamic is why smaller AI chip startups (Graphcore, Cerebras, etc.) and even established rivals like AMD or Intel are finding it hard – Nvidia’s execution and ecosystem create a virtuous cycle that is tough to break.

Concluding Insights

In conclusion, Nvidia’s GTC 2025 keynote painted a picture of AI proliferating into every industry, with Nvidia providing the critical full-stack infrastructure to power it. Data centers are becoming AI factories, inference is becoming as heavy as training (necessitating new software like Dynamo), networks are being reinvented for AI scale, PCs are turning into AI workstations, robots may soon populate factories, and cars are nearing autonomous drive – and Nvidia has positioned itself at the center of all these trends. Winners will be the companies that partner with or piggyback on Nvidia’s platforms (or otherwise benefit from the AI boom), while losers will be those clinging to older paradigms or competing directly against Nvidia’s expanding ecosystem without a differentiated edge. The GTC announcements underscore that we are at an inflection point in computing: one that promises enormous opportunity for those on the right side of it, and disruption for those on the wrong side.

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