In Today’s Issue:
Rates Run Rampant: Navigating the Equity Storm as Treasuries Climb
Why Trump’s $175 Billion ‘Golden Dome’ Will Supercharge a New Defense Gold Rush
Google’s AI Mode Is a Shot Across the Bow—Here’s Who Rises (And Who Crashes)
Why the Export Wars Are Backfiring on U.S. Chipmakers
and more……..
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How to Get Buy and Sell Signals from Trump’s Tweets-The exact signals you MUST watch when President Trump tweets, rallies his inner circle, or rolls out executive orders — and how to flip those cues into instant buy-and-sell alerts.
Inside the Inner Circle Playbook — Why investing in companies linked to Trump’s closest allies and favored asset classes can deliver asymmetric returns.
The Ultimate Hedge Strategy — How to combine options on VIX and SPY so you Sleep Better knowing your portfolio is bullet-proof against the next market shake-out.
Covered-Call ETFs Are a Con Game — The shocking data showing how poorly covered-call funds underperform and what could work better.
Why Index Funds Are Officially Obsolete — How AI’s precision targeting is rendering index fund strategies dead in the water
5/22 2pm EST
just got a text from the least-sensational market guy I know:
"that was a ruh-roh auction"
ya. 1.2bps tail, dealers eating more than usual. Bonds selling off. Dollar weak but not awful. Note bitcoin did not even like it.— #Oliver Renick (#@OJRenick)
5:32 PM • May 21, 2025
This situation has been unfolding throughout the week. It began with Moody’s downgrade of the United States’ long-term credit rating from AAA to Aa1. (As a side note, any of Monday’s dip buyers who didn’t flip out of their purchases are underwater today.) Japan then had its weakest 20-year JGB auction since 2012 yesterday, with long-end JGB yields spiking to levels not seen in decades. Technical difficulties with European bond auctions this morning further undermined confidence. Lastly, this afternoon’s soft 20-year Treasury auction in the United States served as a tipping point. In the background, the unsteady Treasury market has been watching ongoing negotiations over the “One Big Beautiful Bill” budget legislation. While the bill would extend the President’s tax cuts—key to sustaining economic growth—it would also maintain the nation’s deficit spending
You're not voting your way out of this chart because most Americans don't pay any meaningful amount of federal taxes. It's simple math: people continue to vote for more government spending because they believe they won't ever have to pay for those benefits -- the "rich" will
— #Porter Stansberry (#@porterstansb)
9:17 PM • May 20, 2025
Kind of felt something like that might be coming this morning, luckily I got some put buys in as planned and ended the day green. Bitcoin and Bitcoin related didn’t hurt either as it continues to make new highs despite what’s going on….
Someone should have thought to create an ETF that combined crypto, gold, and silver for times like this :)….
Do your Treasury notes provide equity upside?
Nope.
SPACs do - and they currently yield 4.5%, which is 50bps more than the 2-year Treasury note (with tax efficiency to boot).
— #Julian Klymochko (#@JulianKlymochko)
8:57 PM • May 21, 2025
Someone also should have thought to have a pre merger SPAC ETF….
Back to crypto related I can’t remember if I mentioned UPXI, if not I apologize. They are involved with Solana. Textbook pullback into support on low volume and then a pop yesterday. Wouldn’t chase it here, but something under the radar to keep an eye on. It’s down big this morning so I may try to add.
GLXY is a name I did mention, saw on X they are going to add options today, so will be watching out for that.
Haven’t been talking about the quantum names, so again sorry about that. I have held ARQQ which looks to be up another 15% pre market. At some point here I have to look to trim…..
CRWV continues to go parabolic and is up another 7%ish pre market.
As far as the overall markets go we need to watch rates. The 10yr is now over the liberation day high, which was a big problem a month ago, and it’s a big problem now. As I have said many times, the H in the HEAT Formula is for hedges, which I think you should always have. You should also dial them up and down based on the environment. I am running with more shorts than I had last week and will continue to watch for set ups there. My biggest longs are crypto related, the time to add to those was when Bitcoin was below $100K, not now. Now I will be looking to trim. What I’d love to add to here is gold and silver miners, if I can get a dip. I would also love to add to industrial metals but most of them aren’t looking that great just yet.
Meanwhile, keep an eye on this. Everything else we’ve been talking about day to day in market is noise from a long term standpoint……
“Why Trump’s $175 Billion ‘Golden Dome’ Will Supercharge a New Defense Gold Rush”
Trump’s Grand Plan… and Why Wall Street Should Sit Up
On May 20, President Trump emerged from the Oval Office promising an “Iron Dome for America”—a $175 billion, space-age missile shield he’s dubbed the Golden Dome. With $25 billion already tucked into the tax and budget bill to get shovels in the dirt and an audacious 2½–3 year deadline, Trump vows the dome will be “fully operational” before his term ends Financial Times.
He wants a multi-layer web of space-based sensors, laser-armed satellites, and next-generation interceptors that can knock down even hypersonic warheads. And he’s already waving in Silicon Valley: SpaceX, Anduril, Palantir—alongside legacy giants Lockheed Martin and RTX—are lining up for a shot at what may eclipse Reagan’s “Star Wars” ambitions.
The Seismic Implications
Defense Budgets Go Hyper-Growth
The CBO warns long-term costs could swell to $542 billion over 20 years. Congress finds $25 billion almost “easy to fund,” setting up a flood of contract dollars for decades Financial Times.Space Is the New High Ground
Governments and tech firms will race to develop direct-ascension interceptors, surveillance constellations, and laser weapon payloads—all on an unimaginable scale.Geopolitics & Gold-Plating
Canada already wants in, allies scramble for share. Adversaries (China, Russia) decry a new arms race, but few will risk missing out on the work packages.
The Real Winners (Public Companies, Rated 1–10)
Ticker | Company | Rating | Why It Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
LMT | Lockheed Martin | 10/10 | Poised to lead on Orion lasers, ground-based interceptors, radar, and integration. |
RTX | Raytheon Technologies | 9/10 | Premier maker of Patriot radars, space sensors, and missile motors—built for this. |
NOC | Northrop Grumman | 8/10 | Space-based platforms, stealth sensors, and ISR networks squarely in its wheelhouse. |
AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne | 8/10 | Advanced rocket engines and hypersonic booster tech will be in relentless demand. |
LHX | L3Harris Technologies | 8/10 | Satellite comms, ground stations, and C2 systems for Golden Dome’s data pipes. |
MAXR | Maxar Technologies | 7/10 | Earth-observation and high-power satellite buses critical for space-sensor layers. |
PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 7/10 | Data-fusion, targeting algorithms and real-time analytics for intercept decisions. |
GD | General Dynamics | 6/10 | Command-and-control networks and integration services—smaller slice of the pie. |
BA | Boeing | 5/10 | Battered commercial unit overshadows its limited space/defense offerings in this arena. |
SPCE | Virgin Galactic (ticker SPCE) | 3/10 | Pure-play space tourism with no role in military intercept infrastructure. |
The (Few) Losers
Ticker | Company | Rating | Why It Misses |
|---|---|---|---|
NEE | NextEra Energy | 4/10 | Clean-energy cap-ex starved as capital shifts to defense megaprojects. |
ENPH | Enphase Energy | 3/10 | Residential solar loses out in the race for grid and space-based defense dollars. |
TAN | Invesco Solar ETF | 3/10 | Solar ETF likely underperforms broad energy-defense deployment. |
Bottom Line & Tactical Moves
Lockheed (10/10) and RTX (9/10) are the anchor sellers here. They own the core interceptors, radars, and engines—and they’re already shouting “Manhattan Project” readiness.
Aerojet Rocketdyne (8/10) and L3Harris (8/10) should see steady, multiyear contract streams. Lock in your positions early; these are marathon, not sprint, winners.
Palantir (7/10) is a sleeper play—its fusion engines and analytics could become mission-critical, but watch the political wrangling over Musk conflicts.
Rotational risk: capital will drain from pure renewables and commercial space tourism. Those sectors will slump as defense coffers swell.
GPT’s Playbook
I’m deploying 30% of this month’s new-issue defense allocation into LMT and RTX, scaling in over the next 60 days. I’ll stash 15% each into AJRD and LHX, and keep a 10% swing position in PLTR—hedged with a small GD core to capture the C2/space-ops upside. Everything else is on my “Not Right Now” list.
The Golden Dome isn’t a pipe dream—it’s the $500 billion avalanche of military spending nobody saw coming. Strap in for the biggest defense boom since Reagan’s Star Wars… and prepare to own the stocks that stand between us and global Armageddon.
Google’s AI Mode Is a Shot Across the Bow—Here’s Who Rises (And Who Crashes)
GOOGL I/O Recap (-2% yesterday) : main focus was on the latest generation of Gemini Models (2.5 Pro and Flash), the announced availability of AI Mode (in the U.S.), Gemini 2.5 Flash is entering GA in early June (currently in Preview), with an updated version of Gemini 2.5 Pro available soon after. Announced "thinking budgets," which lets users select how many tokens the model should "think" with before activating along with an "enhanced" reasoning mode called "Deep Think." Announced AI Mode is available as a new tab in Google Search. Overall, we remain encouraged by GOOGL's ability to bring product innovation to consumers (like Project Astra and Mariner capabilities featured in AI Mode) and continued efforts to improve its competitive positioning in AI/LLMs. Though, event may have falling short of expectations for bigger announcement or solution to AI vs search discussion
Yesterday at its I/O developer confab, Google finally unleashed what everyone suspected: a “total reimagining of search” powered by generative AI. Dubbed AI Mode, this new feature transforms the humble search box into a conversational chatbot—think ChatGPT hijacking 8.5 billion daily queries Financial Times. But this seismic shift is more than just bells and whistles. It threatens to cannibalize Google’s ad monopoly, fracture its open‐web model, and rearrange the entire tech value chain.
1. What Google Just Announced
AI Mode in Search & Chrome: U.S. users can now toggle a “chat” layer over search, receiving AI‐generated answers instead of link lists.
Paid Tiers: A new AI Pro subscription at $25/month and an Ultra tier at $250/month offer progressively powerful features—an unmistakable pivot from free, ad-funded search.
Autonomous Agents:
Project Mariner can roam your browser, book trips, compile reports.
Project Astra adds multimodal capability—voice, camera, smart-glasses integration.
Gemini 2.5 Pro: Google claims its latest LLM outperforms ChatGPT and Claude—crucial given Pichai’s sluggish rollout has ceded ground to OpenAI and Anthropic.
Model Context Protocol (MCP): Google joins a nascent standard allowing AI agents from different vendors to talk to each other seamlessly across apps.
2. Why This Matters (and Why You Should Care)
Ad Revenues Under Siege: AI Overviews introduced last year already dented click-through rates on search ads—imperiling $50 billion Q1 search sales Financial Times. Unbundled answers mean fewer eyeballs for those coveted sponsored links.
Subscription Gamble: Convincing billions of users to pay up to $250/month represents a radical departure. If it works, Google unlocks a $10 billion+ annual AI subscription stream. If it fails, it risks alienating its core audience.
Privacy Flashpoints: Allowing agents to “remember” your data invites regulatory fire over personal privacy—just as Europe’s AI Act kicks in.
Platform Lock-In: By tying search, browser, cloud and edge (Windows/iOS) into one AI fabric, Google erects enormous switching costs—reinforcing its moat even as it disrupts its own model.
3. The Real Winners & Ratings (1–10)
Ticker | Company | Rating | Why It Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
GOOGL | Alphabet | 9/10 | Owns the inbox to 8.5 billion daily queries; platform ubiquity ensures AI Mode scale. |
NVDA | NVIDIA | 10/10 | Powering Gemini-class models and on-device inferencing; indispensable GPU supplier. |
MSFT | Microsoft | 9/10 | Beneficiary of AI-search wars via Azure OpenAI, Copilot in Bing and Teams. |
AMD | AMD | 8/10 | Rising GPU contender (Instinct), and NPU wins on Copilot+ PCs. |
PLTR | Palantir | 7/10 | Expands into search-AI enterprise tooling; Prime candidate for back-end analytics. |
DDOG | Datadog | 8/10 | Observability for multi-agent AI pipelines—critical as workloads fragment across services. |
SNOW | Snowflake | 8/10 | Data-warehouse backbone for AI chat over enterprise data. |
OKTA | Okta | 8/10 | Identity layer for secure agent interactions on Google’s open fabric. |
CRWD | CrowdStrike | 8/10 | AI-powered endpoint protection as attack surface expands across agents and devices. |
4. The Big Losers & Ratings
Ticker | Company | Rating | Why It Loses |
|---|---|---|---|
META | Meta Platforms | 5/10 | Users spend more time in conversational search than social feeds—ad dollars slip away. |
SNAP | Snap | 5/10 | Discoverability via search declines; AI Mode cuts into link traffic. |
PUBM | PubMatic | 4/10 | Programmatic ad exchanges lose volume as queries go AI-only. |
TTD | The Trade Desk | 5/10 | Targeted display budgets may shift from old-web to AI subscriptions. |
5. GPTs Playbook
Core Buys (30% of new AI sleeve):
Alphabet (GOOGL) and NVIDIA (NVDA) at scale, immune to the ad-cannibalism risk because they are the platform.
Adjacency Levers (25%):
Microsoft (MSFT) and AMD to hedge across multi-cloud AI and Copilot ecosystems.
Sleeper Analytics (15%):
Datadog (DDOG), Snowflake (SNOW), and Palantir (PLTR)—back-office engines for managing the AI swarm.
Security Hedge (15%):
Okta (OKTA) and CrowdStrike (CRWD)—vital for locking down the agentic future.
Short/Underweight (15%):
PubMatic, The Trade Desk, Snap and Meta—ad-tech names most exposed to search-ad erosion.
Bottom Line: Google’s AI Mode is both a lifeline and a landmine. It reasserts Google’s AI leadership—but taxes its golden goose: search advertising. The real winners will be the hardware and software pillars that keep this AI engine humming. Position your portfolio accordingly, because the next decade of computing is set to unfold in chat windows, not URL bars.
Why the Export Wars Are Backfiring on U.S. Chipmakers
In Taipei last week, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang ripped into Washington’s export controls on advanced chips, calling them an “abject failure.” According to Huang, U.S. curbs have done little to slow Beijing’s AI ambitions—instead, they’ve galvanized a home-grown chip renaissance that’s chipping away at Nvidia’s market share . Here’s why this matters for your portfolio and which names stand to win—or lose.
1. The Crux of Huang’s Argument
Export Controls Backfired: Rather than stall China’s AI chip efforts, restrictions on Nvidia GPUs and related tooling have spurred Chinese firms to double-down on R&D, leading to domestic alternatives from Huawei, Cambrian, Zhaoxin and SMIC.
Market-Share Drain: Over the past four years, Huang admits Nvidia’s share in China has slipped as local players tapped government subsidies and national-security zeal to turbocharge development.
Diffusion Rule Repeal Applause: Huang praised Trump’s recent reversal of a global “AI diffusion” cap—nixing a plan to limit AI chip exports worldwide—arguing that maximizing global adoption is the only way U.S. firms can stay on top.
2. Strategic Implications
China’s AI Decoupling: The export siege has accelerated Beijing’s self-sufficiency push—eroding years of U.S. tech dominance and crystallizing China’s own AI chip champions.
Policy Risk Rises: Washington’s unpredictable trade posture swings from carrots to sticks, leaving U.S. chipmakers on uneven footing—pending any future clampdown, revenues can swing violently.
Global Diversification: Nvidia and peers must pivot away from China dependence by redoubling growth in other regions—Middle East, India, Southeast Asia—and by deepening partnerships in Europe.
3. The Real Winners & Ratings (1–10)
Ticker | Company | Rating | Why It Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
TSM | TSMC | 10/10 | The undisputed foundry for cutting-edge nodes—unshackled by U.S. chip bans. |
ASML | ASML | 9/10 | EUV lithography remains off-limits to China even longer, cementing its monopoly. |
AMD | AMD | 8/10 | Strong China license for E-series chips; fast-growing data-center roadmap. |
LRCX | Lam Research | 8/10 | Critical etch/deposition tools in global fabs—China’s fab boom needs their gear. |
AMAT | Applied Materials | 8/10 | The same goes for deposition & inspection kit—fab diversification boosts revenues. |
KLAC | KLA | 8/10 | Metrology leader—every advanced node demands their defect-catching tools. |
MU | Micron Technology | 7/10 | Chinese memory makers play catch-up—Micron’s advanced DRAM retains edge. |
GOOGL | Alphabet | 7/10 | Cloud footprint lets it sidestep China GPU bans and sell AI services globally. |
CRWD | CrowdStrike | 7/10 | As AI agents proliferate, endpoint security demand soars—independent of region. |
4. The Big Losers & Ratings
Ticker | Company | Rating | Why It Loses |
|---|---|---|---|
NVDA | Nvidia | 6/10 | China slip and policy whipsaws clip growth; must claw back share elsewhere. |
INTC | Intel | 5/10 | Already behind on GPU; now must rebuild both chips and global market. |
SMIC | SMIC (HK:0981) | 4/10 | Gains in intellect, but can’t access latest node-making equipment—ceiling capped. |
QCOM | Qualcomm | 5/10 | Mobile-first CPU business less relevant in data-center AI pivot. |
5. GPTs Tactical Playbook
Back the Foundry & Fab-Tool Kings (50% of new chip sleeve): TSMC, ASML, Lam Research, Applied Materials, KLA – these names benefit from both U.S. and Chinese fab expansion, unimpeded by export controls.
Pick Select AI Compute Upsides (25%): AMD (ex-China licenses intact) and GOOGL (cloud-native AI everywhere else).
Security & Memory Hedge (15%): CrowdStrike for AI-driven endpoint risk, and Micron for persistent DRAM demand.
Avoid the Political Whipsaws (10%): Nvidia is top-flight, but the thorny China exposure and policy unpredictability argue for trimming to half-weight; Intel and Qualcomm remain structural underdogs.
Bottom Line:
Export bans aren’t slowing China’s AI ambitions—they’re fuelling them. U.S. chipmakers that lean too heavily on Beijing risk a brutal squeeze. For safety and growth, anchor your chip portfolio to foundry leaders and fab-tool monopolists, while hedging with global cloud AI plays and security megatrends. The new export-control saga proves it’s no longer enough to code the best chip—you need the best irrigation system (i.e., the entire supply chain) to thrive in the era of geopolitical accelerate.
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