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- Rates Run Rampant: Navigating the Equity Storm as Treasuries Climb
Rates Run Rampant: Navigating the Equity Storm as Treasuries Climb
The đ„H.E.A.T.đ„ Formula : AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio

In Todayâs Issue:
Rates Run Rampant: Navigating the Equity Storm as Treasuries Climb
Why Trumpâs $175 Billion âGolden Domeâ Will Supercharge a New Defense Gold Rush
Googleâs AI Mode Is a Shot Across the BowâHereâs Who Rises (And Who Crashes)
Why the Export Wars Are Backfiring on U.S. Chipmakers
and moreâŠâŠ..
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How to Get Buy and Sell Signals from Trumpâs Tweets-The exact signals you MUST watch when President Trump tweets, rallies his inner circle, or rolls out executive orders â and how to flip those cues into instant buy-and-sell alerts.
Inside the Inner Circle Playbook â Why investing in companies linked to Trumpâs closest allies and favored asset classes can deliver asymmetric returns.
The Ultimate Hedge Strategy â How to combine options on VIX and SPY so you Sleep Better knowing your portfolio is bullet-proof against the next market shake-out.
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Why Index Funds Are Officially Obsolete â How AIâs precision targeting is rendering index fund strategies dead in the water
5/22 2pm EST
Dear God đ€Ż
â Barchart (@Barchart)
6:05 PM âą May 21, 2025
just got a text from the least-sensational market guy I know:
"that was a ruh-roh auction"
ya. 1.2bps tail, dealers eating more than usual. Bonds selling off. Dollar weak but not awful. Note bitcoin did not even like it.â Oliver Renick (@OJRenick)
5:32 PM âą May 21, 2025
This situation has been unfolding throughout the week. It began with Moodyâs downgrade of the United Statesâ long-term credit rating from AAA to Aa1. (As a side note, any of Mondayâs dip buyers who didnât flip out of their purchases are underwater today.) Japan then had its weakest 20-year JGB auction since 2012 yesterday, with long-end JGB yields spiking to levels not seen in decades. Technical difficulties with European bond auctions this morning further undermined confidence. Lastly, this afternoonâs soft 20-year Treasury auction in the United States served as a tipping point. In the background, the unsteady Treasury market has been watching ongoing negotiations over the âOne Big Beautiful Billâ budget legislation. While the bill would extend the Presidentâs tax cutsâkey to sustaining economic growthâit would also maintain the nationâs deficit spending
You're not voting your way out of this chart because most Americans don't pay any meaningful amount of federal taxes. It's simple math: people continue to vote for more government spending because they believe they won't ever have to pay for those benefits -- the "rich" will
â Porter Stansberry (@porterstansb)
9:17 PM âą May 20, 2025
Kind of felt something like that might be coming this morning, luckily I got some put buys in as planned and ended the day green. Bitcoin and Bitcoin related didnât hurt either as it continues to make new highs despite whatâs going onâŠ.

Someone should have thought to create an ETF that combined crypto, gold, and silver for times like this :)âŠ.
Do your Treasury notes provide equity upside?
Nope.
SPACs do - and they currently yield 4.5%, which is 50bps more than the 2-year Treasury note (with tax efficiency to boot).
â Julian Klymochko (@JulianKlymochko)
8:57 PM âą May 21, 2025
Someone also should have thought to have a pre merger SPAC ETFâŠ.
Back to crypto related I canât remember if I mentioned UPXI, if not I apologize. They are involved with Solana. Textbook pullback into support on low volume and then a pop yesterday. Wouldnât chase it here, but something under the radar to keep an eye on. Itâs down big this morning so I may try to add.

GLXY is a name I did mention, saw on X they are going to add options today, so will be watching out for that.
Havenât been talking about the quantum names, so again sorry about that. I have held ARQQ which looks to be up another 15% pre market. At some point here I have to look to trimâŠ..

CRWV continues to go parabolic and is up another 7%ish pre market.

As far as the overall markets go we need to watch rates. The 10yr is now over the liberation day high, which was a big problem a month ago, and itâs a big problem now. As I have said many times, the H in the HEAT Formula is for hedges, which I think you should always have. You should also dial them up and down based on the environment. I am running with more shorts than I had last week and will continue to watch for set ups there. My biggest longs are crypto related, the time to add to those was when Bitcoin was below $100K, not now. Now I will be looking to trim. What Iâd love to add to here is gold and silver miners, if I can get a dip. I would also love to add to industrial metals but most of them arenât looking that great just yet.
Meanwhile, keep an eye on this. Everything else weâve been talking about day to day in market is noise from a long term standpointâŠâŠ
âWhy Trumpâs $175 Billion âGolden Domeâ Will Supercharge a New Defense Gold Rushâ
Trumpâs Grand Plan⊠and Why Wall Street Should Sit Up
On May 20, President Trump emerged from the Oval Office promising an âIron Dome for Americaââa $175 billion, space-age missile shield heâs dubbed the Golden Dome. With $25 billion already tucked into the tax and budget bill to get shovels in the dirt and an audacious 2œâ3 year deadline, Trump vows the dome will be âfully operationalâ before his term ends Financial Times.
He wants a multi-layer web of space-based sensors, laser-armed satellites, and next-generation interceptors that can knock down even hypersonic warheads. And heâs already waving in Silicon Valley: SpaceX, Anduril, Palantirâalongside legacy giants Lockheed Martin and RTXâare lining up for a shot at what may eclipse Reaganâs âStar Warsâ ambitions.
The Seismic Implications
Defense Budgets Go Hyper-Growth
The CBO warns long-term costs could swell to $542 billion over 20 years. Congress finds $25 billion almost âeasy to fund,â setting up a flood of contract dollars for decades Financial Times.Space Is the New High Ground
Governments and tech firms will race to develop direct-ascension interceptors, surveillance constellations, and laser weapon payloadsâall on an unimaginable scale.Geopolitics & Gold-Plating
Canada already wants in, allies scramble for share. Adversaries (China, Russia) decry a new arms race, but few will risk missing out on the work packages.
The Real Winners (Public Companies, Rated 1â10)
Ticker | Company | Rating | Why It Wins |
---|---|---|---|
LMT | Lockheed Martin | 10/10 | Poised to lead on Orion lasers, ground-based interceptors, radar, and integration. |
RTX | Raytheon Technologies | 9/10 | Premier maker of Patriot radars, space sensors, and missile motorsâbuilt for this. |
NOC | Northrop Grumman | 8/10 | Space-based platforms, stealth sensors, and ISR networks squarely in its wheelhouse. |
AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne | 8/10 | Advanced rocket engines and hypersonic booster tech will be in relentless demand. |
LHX | L3Harris Technologies | 8/10 | Satellite comms, ground stations, and C2 systems for Golden Domeâs data pipes. |
MAXR | Maxar Technologies | 7/10 | Earth-observation and high-power satellite buses critical for space-sensor layers. |
PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 7/10 | Data-fusion, targeting algorithms and real-time analytics for intercept decisions. |
GD | General Dynamics | 6/10 | Command-and-control networks and integration servicesâsmaller slice of the pie. |
BA | Boeing | 5/10 | Battered commercial unit overshadows its limited space/defense offerings in this arena. |
SPCE | Virgin Galactic (ticker SPCE) | 3/10 | Pure-play space tourism with no role in military intercept infrastructure. |
The (Few) Losers
Ticker | Company | Rating | Why It Misses |
---|---|---|---|
NEE | NextEra Energy | 4/10 | Clean-energy cap-ex starved as capital shifts to defense megaprojects. |
ENPH | Enphase Energy | 3/10 | Residential solar loses out in the race for grid and space-based defense dollars. |
TAN | Invesco Solar ETF | 3/10 | Solar ETF likely underperforms broad energy-defense deployment. |
Bottom Line & Tactical Moves
Lockheed (10/10) and RTX (9/10) are the anchor sellers here. They own the core interceptors, radars, and enginesâand theyâre already shouting âManhattan Projectâ readiness.
Aerojet Rocketdyne (8/10) and L3Harris (8/10) should see steady, multiyear contract streams. Lock in your positions early; these are marathon, not sprint, winners.
Palantir (7/10) is a sleeper playâits fusion engines and analytics could become mission-critical, but watch the political wrangling over Musk conflicts.
Rotational risk: capital will drain from pure renewables and commercial space tourism. Those sectors will slump as defense coffers swell.
GPTâs Playbook
Iâm deploying 30% of this monthâs new-issue defense allocation into LMT and RTX, scaling in over the next 60 days. Iâll stash 15% each into AJRD and LHX, and keep a 10% swing position in PLTRâhedged with a small GD core to capture the C2/space-ops upside. Everything else is on my âNot Right Nowâ list.
The Golden Dome isnât a pipe dreamâitâs the $500 billion avalanche of military spending nobody saw coming. Strap in for the biggest defense boom since Reaganâs Star Wars⊠and prepare to own the stocks that stand between us and global Armageddon.
Googleâs AI Mode Is a Shot Across the BowâHereâs Who Rises (And Who Crashes)
GOOGL I/O Recap (-2% yesterday) : main focus was on the latest generation of Gemini Models (2.5 Pro and Flash), the announced availability of AI Mode (in the U.S.), Gemini 2.5 Flash is entering GA in early June (currently in Preview), with an updated version of Gemini 2.5 Pro available soon after. Announced "thinking budgets," which lets users select how many tokens the model should "think" with before activating along with an "enhanced" reasoning mode called "Deep Think." Announced AI Mode is available as a new tab in Google Search. Overall, we remain encouraged by GOOGL's ability to bring product innovation to consumers (like Project Astra and Mariner capabilities featured in AI Mode) and continued efforts to improve its competitive positioning in AI/LLMs. Though, event may have falling short of expectations for bigger announcement or solution to AI vs search discussion
Yesterday at its I/O developer confab, Google finally unleashed what everyone suspected: a âtotal reimagining of searchâ powered by generative AI. Dubbed AI Mode, this new feature transforms the humble search box into a conversational chatbotâthink ChatGPT hijacking 8.5 billion daily queries Financial Times. But this seismic shift is more than just bells and whistles. It threatens to cannibalize Googleâs ad monopoly, fracture its openâweb model, and rearrange the entire tech value chain.
1. What Google Just Announced
AI Mode in Search & Chrome: U.S. users can now toggle a âchatâ layer over search, receiving AIâgenerated answers instead of link lists.
Paid Tiers: A new AI Pro subscription at $25/month and an Ultra tier at $250/month offer progressively powerful featuresâan unmistakable pivot from free, ad-funded search.
Autonomous Agents:
Project Mariner can roam your browser, book trips, compile reports.
Project Astra adds multimodal capabilityâvoice, camera, smart-glasses integration.
Gemini 2.5 Pro: Google claims its latest LLM outperforms ChatGPT and Claudeâcrucial given Pichaiâs sluggish rollout has ceded ground to OpenAI and Anthropic.
Model Context Protocol (MCP): Google joins a nascent standard allowing AI agents from different vendors to talk to each other seamlessly across apps.
2. Why This Matters (and Why You Should Care)
Ad Revenues Under Siege: AI Overviews introduced last year already dented click-through rates on search adsâimperiling $50 billion Q1 search sales Financial Times. Unbundled answers mean fewer eyeballs for those coveted sponsored links.
Subscription Gamble: Convincing billions of users to pay up to $250/month represents a radical departure. If it works, Google unlocks a $10 billion+ annual AI subscription stream. If it fails, it risks alienating its core audience.
Privacy Flashpoints: Allowing agents to ârememberâ your data invites regulatory fire over personal privacyâjust as Europeâs AI Act kicks in.
Platform Lock-In: By tying search, browser, cloud and edge (Windows/iOS) into one AI fabric, Google erects enormous switching costsâreinforcing its moat even as it disrupts its own model.
3. The Real Winners & Ratings (1â10)
Ticker | Company | Rating | Why It Wins |
---|---|---|---|
GOOGL | Alphabet | 9/10 | Owns the inbox to 8.5 billion daily queries; platform ubiquity ensures AI Mode scale. |
NVDA | NVIDIA | 10/10 | Powering Gemini-class models and on-device inferencing; indispensable GPU supplier. |
MSFT | Microsoft | 9/10 | Beneficiary of AI-search wars via Azure OpenAI, Copilot in Bing and Teams. |
AMD | AMD | 8/10 | Rising GPU contender (Instinct), and NPU wins on Copilot+ PCs. |
PLTR | Palantir | 7/10 | Expands into search-AI enterprise tooling; Prime candidate for back-end analytics. |
DDOG | Datadog | 8/10 | Observability for multi-agent AI pipelinesâcritical as workloads fragment across services. |
SNOW | Snowflake | 8/10 | Data-warehouse backbone for AI chat over enterprise data. |
OKTA | Okta | 8/10 | Identity layer for secure agent interactions on Googleâs open fabric. |
CRWD | CrowdStrike | 8/10 | AI-powered endpoint protection as attack surface expands across agents and devices. |
4. The Big Losers & Ratings
Ticker | Company | Rating | Why It Loses |
---|---|---|---|
META | Meta Platforms | 5/10 | Users spend more time in conversational search than social feedsâad dollars slip away. |
SNAP | Snap | 5/10 | Discoverability via search declines; AI Mode cuts into link traffic. |
PUBM | PubMatic | 4/10 | Programmatic ad exchanges lose volume as queries go AI-only. |
TTD | The Trade Desk | 5/10 | Targeted display budgets may shift from old-web to AI subscriptions. |
5. GPTs Playbook
Core Buys (30% of new AI sleeve):
Alphabet (GOOGL) and NVIDIA (NVDA) at scale, immune to the ad-cannibalism risk because they are the platform.
Adjacency Levers (25%):
Microsoft (MSFT) and AMD to hedge across multi-cloud AI and Copilot ecosystems.
Sleeper Analytics (15%):
Datadog (DDOG), Snowflake (SNOW), and Palantir (PLTR)âback-office engines for managing the AI swarm.
Security Hedge (15%):
Okta (OKTA) and CrowdStrike (CRWD)âvital for locking down the agentic future.
Short/Underweight (15%):
PubMatic, The Trade Desk, Snap and Metaâad-tech names most exposed to search-ad erosion.
Bottom Line: Googleâs AI Mode is both a lifeline and a landmine. It reasserts Googleâs AI leadershipâbut taxes its golden goose: search advertising. The real winners will be the hardware and software pillars that keep this AI engine humming. Position your portfolio accordingly, because the next decade of computing is set to unfold in chat windows, not URL bars.
Why the Export Wars Are Backfiring on U.S. Chipmakers
In Taipei last week, Nvidiaâs Jensen Huang ripped into Washingtonâs export controls on advanced chips, calling them an âabject failure.â According to Huang, U.S. curbs have done little to slow Beijingâs AI ambitionsâinstead, theyâve galvanized a home-grown chip renaissance thatâs chipping away at Nvidiaâs market share . Hereâs why this matters for your portfolio and which names stand to winâor lose.
1. The Crux of Huangâs Argument
Export Controls Backfired: Rather than stall Chinaâs AI chip efforts, restrictions on Nvidia GPUs and related tooling have spurred Chinese firms to double-down on R&D, leading to domestic alternatives from Huawei, Cambrian, Zhaoxin and SMIC.
Market-Share Drain: Over the past four years, Huang admits Nvidiaâs share in China has slipped as local players tapped government subsidies and national-security zeal to turbocharge development.
Diffusion Rule Repeal Applause: Huang praised Trumpâs recent reversal of a global âAI diffusionâ capânixÂing a plan to limit AI chip exports worldwideâarguing that maximizing global adoption is the only way U.S. firms can stay on top.
2. Strategic Implications
Chinaâs AI Decoupling: The export siege has accelerated Beijingâs self-sufficiency pushâeroding years of U.S. tech dominance and crystallizing Chinaâs own AI chip champions.
Policy Risk Rises: Washingtonâs unpredictable trade posture swings from carrots to sticks, leaving U.S. chipmakers on uneven footingâpending any future clampdown, revenues can swing violently.
Global Diversification: Nvidia and peers must pivot away from China dependence by redoubling growth in other regionsâMiddle East, India, Southeast Asiaâand by deepening partnerships in Europe.
3. The Real Winners & Ratings (1â10)
Ticker | Company | Rating | Why It Wins |
---|---|---|---|
TSM | TSMC | 10/10 | The undisputed foundry for cutting-edge nodesâunshackled by U.S. chip bans. |
ASML | ASML | 9/10 | EUV lithography remains off-limits to China even longer, cementing its monopoly. |
AMD | AMD | 8/10 | Strong China license for E-series chips; fast-growing data-center roadmap. |
LRCX | Lam Research | 8/10 | Critical etch/deposition tools in global fabsâChinaâs fab boom needs their gear. |
AMAT | Applied Materials | 8/10 | The same goes for deposition & inspection kitâfab diversification boosts revenues. |
KLAC | KLA | 8/10 | Metrology leaderâevery advanced node demands their defect-catching tools. |
MU | Micron Technology | 7/10 | Chinese memory makers play catch-upâMicronâs advanced DRAM retains edge. |
GOOGL | Alphabet | 7/10 | Cloud footprint lets it sidestep China GPU bans and sell AI services globally. |
CRWD | CrowdStrike | 7/10 | As AI agents proliferate, endpoint security demand soarsâindependent of region. |
4. The Big Losers & Ratings
Ticker | Company | Rating | Why It Loses |
---|---|---|---|
NVDA | Nvidia | 6/10 | China slip and policy whipsaws clip growth; must claw back share elsewhere. |
INTC | Intel | 5/10 | Already behind on GPU; now must rebuild both chips and global market. |
SMIC | SMIC (HK:0981) | 4/10 | Gains in intellect, but canât access latest node-making equipmentâceiling capped. |
QCOM | Qualcomm | 5/10 | Mobile-first CPU business less relevant in data-center AI pivot. |
5. GPTs Tactical Playbook
Back the Foundry & Fab-Tool Kings (50% of new chip sleeve): TSMC, ASML, Lam Research, Applied Materials, KLA â these names benefit from both U.S. and Chinese fab expansion, unimpeded by export controls.
Pick Select AI Compute Upsides (25%): AMD (ex-China licenses intact) and GOOGL (cloud-native AI everywhere else).
Security & Memory Hedge (15%): CrowdStrike for AI-driven endpoint risk, and Micron for persistent DRAM demand.
Avoid the Political Whipsaws (10%): Nvidia is top-flight, but the thorny China exposure and policy unpredictability argue for trimming to half-weight; Intel and Qualcomm remain structural underdogs.
Bottom Line:
Export bans arenât slowing Chinaâs AI ambitionsâtheyâre fuelling them. U.S. chipmakers that lean too heavily on Beijing risk a brutal squeeze. For safety and growth, anchor your chip portfolio to foundry leaders and fab-tool monopolists, while hedging with global cloud AI plays and security megatrends. The new export-control saga proves itâs no longer enough to code the best chipâyou need the best irrigation system (i.e., the entire supply chain) to thrive in the era of geopolitical accelerate.
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