Here’s the tell: over the past week, software suddenly outran semis by a record margin (think IGV ripping while SMH got punched). That looks like a “software comeback” headline… but it’s really the market doing what it always does after a crowded, emotional move: it snaps back toward the thing everyone hates most, at least temporarily. Software has been the poster child for the “AI ghost trade” (the fear that AI reduces seat counts, compresses pricing, and makes whole categories of workflow software feel optional). When you’re that oversold, you don’t need good news—you just need the bad news to be slightly less bad. Meanwhile, semis and memory were extended, “owned,” and vulnerable to any macro wobble or AI-capex second-guessing… so they became the source of funds.

The mistake is treating “tech” like a single trade. It isn’t. Software can bounce, but you have to pick the right exposures because the market is now punishing “one-quarter-too-optimistic” guidance like it’s a felony. Cyber got clipped in sympathy with the broader software tape, but the logic is backward: AI doesn’t eliminate security spend… it multiplies the attack surface (agents, privileged access, prompt injection, automated exploits, AI-powered phishing at scale). And memory is the classic “right theme, wrong entry.” The structural story (AI-driven tightness, HBM allocation, multi-year visibility) can be intact while the stock still needs to flush positioning—so you want a dip entry with a map, not a hero buy because you liked the story on the way up.

What I’d look for in the right software bounce names

Potential winners (software rebound watchlist)

Potential losers / “handle with gloves”

How I’d frame the software trade in one line:
Rent the bounce in the highest-quality platforms; don’t marry the “all clear” narrative.

Cyber got dragged because it’s lumped into “software,” and because a lazy story took hold: “AI scans code → fewer bugs → less security spend.” That’s like saying seatbelts will end car insurance. AI doesn’t just make things safer—it makes attackers faster, cheaper, and more scalable. And the real risk is shifting from “vulnerable code” to vulnerable agents (privileged workflows + prompt injection + data access). If enterprises deploy agents at scale, they are effectively deploying thousands of “mini employees” that need identity, access control, monitoring, and response.

Potential winners (cyber resilience basket)

Potential losers

How I’d frame cyber in one line:
Cyber isn’t an AI victim—it’s the insurance premium for the AI era.

Tuesday’s memory selloff looked violent (MU, SNDK, STX, WDC getting hit), but the key question is why. If the move is positioning + “overbought unwind” (especially after huge runs in Korea), that’s very different than “demand broke.” The more interesting medium-term setup is that HBM soaks up incremental capacity, and constraints aren’t just demand—they’re supply-side: clean-room buildouts, long lead times for tools, and the reality that you can’t conjure qualified capacity overnight.

Potential winners (memory + storage + picks-and-shovels)

Potential losers

A practical entry framework (what you said—codified)

How I’d frame memory in one line:
The story can be right and the stock can still need a reset—buy the dip, but only at your level.

If I had to reduce this whole page to a clean mental model:

Nice turnaround from an ugly day Tuesday. Under normal circumstances a day like yesterday would get me all bulled up, but in a war any news can come out that changes things.

Looking at a chart of the QQQs all I see is chop, but as we have been saying, the real action is beneath the surface…..

If I zoom out to weekly, it looks like a market that’s either consolidating or setting up for a drop. Time will tell…..

Here are a few themes I’m seeing…..

Broadcom announced a blowout quarter, but the most interesting part of the report was the CEO endorsing copper over photonics. That’s causing a rally in CRDO and ALAB and a selloff in photonics. Photonics names (LITE, COHR) are extended anyway, would potentially look for a dip buy at some point here.

The market has been “pinned” by heavy options positioning and overwriting, with the biggest roll-off of options notional on record into March 20. Translation: expect chop/mean reversion until OpEx clears, then more directional freedom if positioning resets the way it usually does.

Actionable lens: don’t over-interpret every headline move before OpEx; the “why” may be flows.

Citadel is still seeing persistent retail buying (especially on down days) and highlights the seasonal setup: refund issuance ramps into March/April, and cash-like balances are still huge. That’s not “immediate equity inflows,” but it’s a liquidity backdrop that can support a bounce once the mechanics unclench.

Equity expression: “value-with-growth” consumer winners (off-price) + quality tech rebounds.

Skew is elevated; cross-asset hedging demand is elevated. When protection is crowded, the market can rip simply because people monetize puts and dealers/vol strategies flip from “selling rallies” to “chasing.”

Equity expression: own what institutions want to re-add when vol compresses: quality, liquid, durable.

Even with software sentiment messy, the security platform names keep getting framed as structurally advantaged because AI expands the attack surface and raises the cost of failure.

Equity expression: cybersecurity platforms with a flywheel.

Oppenheimer’s desk note is explicitly connecting current conflict dynamics to low-cost counter-UAS procurement needs—i.e., scalable solutions versus exquisite legacy systems.

We added Ouster (OUST) to UFOD (1% of fund) because the next leg of “physical AI” is shifting from models to mission-grade perception. Autonomy doesn’t scale in the real world without a reliable “truth sensor” stack—especially in drones and defense workflows where spoofing, clutter, weather, and contested environments break cheaper sensing. Ouster is one of the few scaled, pure-play lidar platforms, and the key catalyst is procurement velocity: its OS1 digital lidar has been approved and added to the Pentagon’s Blue UAS Framework, which matters because it’s a vetted path for NDAA-compliant components to get designed into U.S.-aligned unmanned systems. The asymmetry is that we don’t need to “pick the winning drone OEM”—we’re buying the picks-and-shovels sensor layer that multiple primes/integrators can standardize on as defense budgets migrate toward autonomy. The tradeoff is small-cap volatility and a competitive sensor landscape, so we size it like an adoption call option, not a sleepy compounder. 

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Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Tuttle Capital UFO Disclosure ETF (UFOD) before investing. For a prospectus with this and other information about the fund, please call (347) 852-0548 or visit http://thetruthisoutthereufod.com/. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. 

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As with all funds, a shareholder is subject to the risk that his or her investment could lose money. The Fund is not a complete investment program and is designed for inclusion in a diversified investment portfolio. The principal risks affecting shareholders’ investments in the Fund are set forth below. An investment in the Fund is not a bank deposit and 

is not insured or guaranteed by the FDIC or any government agency. The principal risks described herein pertain to direct risks of making an investment in the Fund and/or risks of the issuers in which the Fund invests. 

 
Speculative Nature Risk. Government confirmation or denial of advanced alien technology is uncertain, and rumored breakthroughs might never materialize. This entire theme is highly speculative and subject to rumor cycles. 

 
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Technology Sector Risk. The market prices of technology-related securities tend to exhibit a greater degree of market risk and sharp price fluctuations than other types of securities. These securities may fall in and out of favor with investors rapidly, which may cause sudden selling and dramatically lower market prices. Technology securities may be affected by intense competition, obsolescence of existing technology, general economic conditions and government regulation and may have limited product lines, markets, financial resources or personnel. Technology companies may experience dramatic and often unpredictable changes in growth rates and competition for qualified personnel. These companies are also heavily dependent on patent and intellectual property rights, the loss or impairment of which may adversely impact a company’s profitability. A small number of companies represent a large portion of the technology industry. In addition, a rising interest rate environment tends to negatively affect technology companies, those technology companies seeking to finance expansion would have increased borrowing costs, which may negatively impact earnings. Technology companies having high market valuations may appear less attractive to investors, which may cause sharp decreases in their market prices. 

WESCO (WCC) is on my watchlist as a “picks-and-shovels” way to play the AI data-center buildout and grid/electrification capex without adding another software-style duration bet: management reported 2025 data-center sales of $4.3B (about ~18% of company sales), up ~50% YoY, with Q4 data-center sales of $1.2B, up ~30% YoY, and total company backlog up 19% YoY to a record—real-world demand signals that hyperscale + power infrastructure spend is translating into orders. For 2026, they guided to 5–8% reported sales growth, ~6.8% adj. EBITDA margin (midpoint), $14.50–$16.50 adj. EPS, and $500–$800M of free cash flow, while planning to lift the dividend to $2.00/share—so the core debate is cash conversion + project mix (large projects can pressure margins/working capital short term) more than “is the end market real.” The countertrend angle: if macro/rate volatility or working-capital noise creates a pullback while backlog/data-center momentum stays intact, you’re getting an infrastructure compounder at a much more reasonable setup than the “already-perfect” AI names. Biggest things I’d monitor are (1) WDCS/data-center backlog conversion and margin profile, (2) UBS stability as utility spending improves, and (3) whether their digitization/data-lake initiative actually tightens pricing discipline and working-capital turns.

I had the pleasure of speaking about UFOD on Stocks on Spaces Wednesday. Strangely we got cut off right as we were talking about potential Raytheon technology, so it’s in two parts…..

The H.E.A.T. (Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry and Theme) Formula is designed to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth.

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