In Today’s Issue:

• Retail Rally: How Everyday Traders Saved the Market from a Moody’s Meltdown

• Deep dive on robotics, potential winners and losers

• Is SAP a stock you should own?

• Review of opportunities in AI infrastructure

• Will Trump use LNG to reduce the trade gap?

• and more……..

Next Webinar:

AI Unleashed: How to Harness AI to Crush Wall Street, Find the Top Investment Themes, and Obliterate Obsolete Investments

• The AI Theme Engine Blueprint-How I train off the shelf AI models to scan thousands of data points to spotlight the hottest investment themes right now, and identify the stocks poised to soar before the “smart money” even notices.

• How to Get Buy and Sell Signals from Trump’s Tweets-The exact signals you MUST watch when President Trump tweets, rallies his inner circle, or rolls out executive orders — and how to flip those cues into instant buy-and-sell alerts.

• Inside the Inner Circle Playbook — Why investing in companies linked to Trump’s closest allies and favored asset classes can deliver asymmetric returns.

• The Ultimate Hedge Strategy — How to combine options on VIX and SPY so you Sleep Better knowing your portfolio is bullet-proof against the next market shake-out.

• Covered-Call ETFs Are a Con Game — The shocking data showing how poorly covered-call funds underperform and what could work better.

• Why Index Funds Are Officially Obsolete — How AI’s precision targeting is rendering index fund strategies dead in the water

5/22 2pm EST

I will be speaking at the Money Show Virtual Expo

Wednesday, May 21, 2025, 1:40 pm - 2:10 pm EDT

Why Covered Call Strategies Suck and a Better Approach to Generating Income

Matthew Tuttle |Tuttle Capital Management

Join this session with Matthew Tuttle as he explains why most covered call strategies suck. Matthew will discuss put/write strategies and how they could generate more income with less risk. Additionally, he will go over how to structure 0DTE strategies on products that do not have 0DTE options. 

Retail Rally: How Everyday Traders Saved the Market from a Moody’s Meltdown

In yesterday’s note I suggested that you are better off waiting for the institutions to do what they needed to do in the morning before making a judgement on the impact of the Moody’s downgrade. My sense was that it was probably not that big a deal, but in an overbought market not that big a deal can be a big deal. Once the “smart money” was done selling the retail traders bought the dip and the market closed green.

I have not talked about this in a while, but the market dynamics changed after Covid. I was a broker during the internet bubble. There are similarities between that and what is going on in AI and meme stocks now. The huge difference is that back then retail traders needed the brokers for information and execution. They also weren’t really connected together. Today, they can execute lightening fast with no commissions, they can use options to lever their bets, and they are connected through social media and discords. These connections allow them to act in mass, and allowed them to take down a hedge fund. There are retail traders way better than anyone I ever met on Wall Street, who generate returns better than the “smart money”. I keep four discords and X up during the day because I believe you ignore what retail is doing at your peril.

Not to say that buying the dip was the smart thing to do, time will tell, but all the “smart money” who got out at the lows yesterday look pretty stupid. Market’s are slightly red this morning though. In this note I am primarily focused on the shorter term. Charts can help a lot in figuring out where things are likely to go over the next few days, and as long as your are nimble that’s all you need. I tend to agree with what Mohit Kumar at Jefferies said last night……

Longer term is impossible to predict, but there are some people I listen to, Jamie Dimon is obviously very plugged in, so when he talks you should listen……

For now, as long as we are over the 200 day moving average I think you continue to buy dips. Most interesting name to me today is GLXY. It just started trading on the NASDAQ after being only listed in Canada so not much to evaluate on the US chart. The Canadian chart looks overbought…..

What I said before about retail investors could come into play here. If they jump into this it can go parabolic, overbought or not. I may take a small position just to be there and then wait for dips to get more.

As for Treasuries everyone seems to hate them and TLT almost undercut the Liberation Day lows….

Whenever everyone seems to hate something that causes me to like it more, small position and I’m hanging onto it for now.

Huge believer that there will be massive opportunity in robotics (physical AI). I had GPT take a deep dive on this article and come up with some potential winners and losers….

1. Theme Takeaways

• Physical AI Is Early-Majority: Traditional industrial robots have proven ROI; adding AI perception (LiDAR, vision, edge compute) unlocks new use-cases in warehousing, manufacturing, healthcare and logistics.

• Cost Curve Favors Robots: Between 2008–2030, robot setup costs should fall ~58% while wages rise ~125%—supercharging capex returns.

• S-Curve Dynamics: General-purpose humanoids (Tesla Optimus) are “innovators” play; focus now on “early majority” vendors delivering AI-augmented automation.

• 10-Year Horizon: Don’t chase a twelve-month pop—this is a decade-long revolution. Expect bouts of volatility as big tech, industrials and healthcare vie for prime movers.

2. Potential Winners

3. Potential Losers

4. My Take

• Yes, physical AI is the next megatrend—but stick to pure or core-adjacent plays with proven scale, recurring revenue and long-term contracts (NVDA, SYM, ISRG, AMBA).

• Avoid frontier “innovators” and small cap ADRs with spotty growth (PRCT, Estun, Hon Hai)—they carry execution, regulatory and valuation risk.

• 20–30% upside is reasonable in top winners over the next 12 months; the real gains materialize over multiple quarters of AI-robotics adoption.

Bottom line: Build your robotics sleeve around AI chip leaders, warehouse automation specialists, and mission-critical robotics OEMs—and be prepared to ride this theme for the next 5–10 years.

SAP is a stock I sold out of when it broke the 50 day in March. IMHO it is one of the key AI names going forward and a name I would have loved to get back into. A pullback into the 10 or 20 day could be a buying opportunity….

I had GPT take a deep dive on the stock and answer the question of whether I should look to get back in….

1. What SAP Does & Why It Matters

• Business Software Leader: SAP is Europe’s largest company and a global #1 in enterprise resource planning (ERP), managing billing, HR, supply chains and procurement for 440,000+ customers Barron's.

• Cloud & AI Pivot: Q1 ’25 cloud revenue €5 billion (+27% YoY) and a €18.2 billion cloud backlog (+28% YoY) underscore SAP’s shift to high-margin, subscription services—driven by its RISE bundle, Business Data Cloud (with Databricks) and >200 embedded AI use cases ASUGSAP News Center.

• Tariff-Resilient Model: Unlike hardware makers (AAPL, TSLA), SAP sells pure software—immune to Trump’s goods tariffs—and its tools help clients manage trade-policy complexity, sustaining demand amid geopolitical uncertainty Barron'sFinancial Times.

2. Recent Financials & Growth Trajectory

• Margin Leverage: Non-IFRS operating margin jumped to 27.2% (up 810 bps) on scalable cloud/AI mix The Futurum Group.

• Free Cash Flow: €3.6 billion (+36% YoY), funding both job-restructuring (€3 bn) and continued R&D.

3. Valuation & Analyst Sentiment

• Premium Multiple: ~56× forward P/E vs. Oracle (37×), Microsoft (35×), Alphabet (18×) Barron's.

• Price Targets: Consensus Buy with average PT €300 (up ~13% from €265 current). Deutsche Bank sees half of DAX gains tied to SAP’s rally Barron's.

4. Upside Catalysts & Risks

5. Technical Snapshot (ADR Chart as of May 16)

• Current Price: $296.41

• Key Moving Averages:

  • 10-day EMA: $293.30

  • 20-day EMA: $285.53

  • 50-day SMA: $270.87

  • 200-day SMA: $247.77

• Momentum Indicators:

  • RSI(14): ~74 (overbought territory)

  • Williams %R: ~-15 (also signaling short-term overextension)

6. Buyback Recommendation

• Rating: 7 / 10

• Action: Buy on Dips

  • Ideal Entry Zone: $285–$290 (around the 20-day EMA)

  • Stop-Loss: Below $270 (the 50-day SMA) to contain risk if the uptrend falters.

  • Target: Re-test May highs near $300–$305, with further upside if SAP confirms new cloud/AI catalysts at the Orlando event.

Bottom Line:
SAP ADR’s USD-denominated cloud & AI transition remains intact. The ADR’s chart shows sustained momentum, but with overbought signals in place, Steve should look to re-enter on a pullback into the $285–$290 zone—where support converges—and then ride the next leg of the cloud/AI-driven uptrend.

1Q25 Data Center Leasing & Earnings Season Tidbits Across the Market

Jefferies put out this piece on Sunday night….

I had GPT create a list of winners and losers……

Winners

Losers

Bottom Line:

• AI Power Leaders (NVDA, DLR, EQIX, CRWV) are firing on all cylinders—scale your overweight there.

• Hyperscaler In-House Builds (GOOGL, META, AMZN, MSFT) remain capacity-constrained, underpinning outsized infra spend.

• Infrastructure Backbone (AMD, ETN, VRT, CEG) get a durable multi-year runway as the compute boom collides with grid limitations.

• Pure-Play Top-Market REITs (CONE, QTS) should be underweighted until shovel-ready supply normalizes or they pivot more to tertiary/edge leases.

Alpha Hard To Generate; Refining Leads; LNG to Close Trade Gap

Jefferies also wrote a piece on another one of my favorite areas, LNG…..

I had GPT analyze the note and create list of potential winners and losers…..

Jefferies’ Core Thesis

1. Policy Tailwind: The Trump administration will lean on U.S. LNG to chip away at the bilateral trade gap—especially with Asia—though the volumes needed to fully “balance” trade are infeasible.

2. Demand vs. Supply: Asian importers (Japan, Korea) are flat‐to‐down in LNG needs; China is sidelined until geopolitics thaw; true incremental growth will come from South Asia—but that’s a modest incremental market.

3. Alpha Trap: LNG has lagged 2025’s energy rally despite tightness; the “trade‐deficit” narrative is more micro than macro, so only the best‐positioned exporters will outperform.

Winners

Losers

My Take

• Opportunities:

  • Tier‐1 Exporters (LNG, SRE, ET) with secured, fee‐based contracts and flexibility to add trains stand to outpace the broader energy complex.

  • Pipeline‐to‐Export Plays (KMI) can capture incremental egress volumes at attractive returns.

• Risks:

  • Macro Overhang: If Asian demand disappoints and European supply diversifies (more LNG/renewables), spot spreads could compress.

  • Policy vs. Fundamentals: The “trade‐deficit” storyline is largely political; don’t mistake it for a volume breakout beyond contracted growth.

Bottom Line: Stick with the fee‐based, contract‐heavy names (Cheniere, Sempra, ET) for predictable FCF and low execution risk. Avoid the pre‐FIDs and spot‐exposed shippers chasing headline alpha—their returns hinge on macro whims, not locked‐in cash flows.

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   The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2025 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.