Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since.
That’s why we created a new approach — The H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth.
Table of Contents
🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now
The market continues to bleed higher. PPI is tomorrow, CPI is Thursday. A hot number could be a problem. Rates are the lowest they have been since April, as long as rates are heading down you want to be long equities.
Again, hot inflation numbers could change Fed rate cut expectations and bring things right back up.
After the close yesterday it was reported that Nebius Group signed a deal with Microsoft worth up to $19.4 billion over the next six years. Bitcoin mining/data center names are rallying in response. A week or so ago I talked about these names and highlighted IREN…..
It’s been riding the 10 day MA and 20 day EMA and is currently up over 10% pre market.
We’ve also talked a lot about digital asset treasury companies (DAT) a lot lately. A bunch more conversions have been announced and this area is showing strength again. These warrant caution as there will be a lot of crap and there’s not a great reason to pay over NAV for these assets.
MicroStrategy, the ultimate DAT hasn’t really benefited as there are now multiple alternatives, it still looks like a short….
A bunch of others are stronger this morning and this is an area we are going to continue to be active in on the 2x side, and maybe our own DAT at some point.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin looks like it may have bottomed……
And Ethereum looks like it’s coiling for a move one way or the other…..
Meanwhile, Gold continues to move higher…..
I continue to believe it’s not gold or bitcoin, it’s gold and bitcoin. Our version of the permanent portfolio has a 25% allocation to precious metals and crypto……
I continue to believe NVDA is a must own, see my Schwab appearance last week (below) when I talked about NVDA and AVGO,
but I doubt you get a ton of alpha from owning just NVDA here……
See my webinar below, I will discuss how to identify top themes and look for second, third, and fourth order winners and losers.
🧠 Software: Is It Finally Time?
I covered software a few days ago and figured we would hit it again….
IGV pulled an undercut and rally at the 50 day yesterday, and there are a lot of good looking charts out there……
The Setup
The market has been underweight software, outside of the “obvious” big 3 (MSFT, ORCL, PLTR).
Investors have piled into hardware/semis as the “easier” AI trade → cyclicality + visible AI demand.
Result: many software names trade at depressed multiples (~3–6x revs) despite strong consumption trends.
Stifel’s call: with disinterest comes opportunity. Earnings beats and conferences have started to trigger outsized moves as investors try to get back onside.
Catalysts
Consumption trends are strong: MDB, SNOW, ESTC, FROG all delivered beats.
M&A healthy in private markets → public software could rerate if investors believe in eventual takeout optionality.
Conferences/Events: NOW, NET, PCOR, TENB, PCTY, FROG, WK, DT all gave encouraging commentary; near-term catalysts ahead from WDAY, ADSK, CRWD, MDB, INTU, OKTA.
Winners (8.5 or higher = must own)
ServiceNow (NOW) — 8.5/10
Edge: AI orchestration platform; 30% ASP uplift on AI features; Fed contracts recovering.
Why now: Best positioned workflow OS; still growing into multiple adjacencies.
Catalyst: Analyst/user events + pipeline conversion.
MongoDB (MDB) — 8.5/10
Edge: Atlas growth re-accelerating; data layer a core AI beneficiary.
Controversy: Postgres competition, but recent survey work points to durability.
Catalyst: Continued Atlas consumption growth + new workloads.
Snowflake (SNOW) — 8.5/10
Edge: 32% product rev growth; 125% NRR; strong AI workload attach.
Why now: Re-accel story, conservative guide, multiple ways to win.
Catalyst: Product attach (Snowpark, Dynamic Tables); AI budget allocations.
Elastic (ESTC) — 8.5/10
Edge: Search/log/security convergence; beats/raises; security displacements rising.
Why now: Under-owned, conservative guide.
Catalyst: Pricing + federal wins.
Potential Must-Owns (7.5–8.0, next leg up possible)
JFrog (FROG) — 8/10: Clear AI winner (“more code = more binaries”), security traction; back in AI conversation.
Okta (OKTA) — 8/10: One of last public identity names; attractive valuation (~5x revs). Needs to prove security posture post-breaches.
Paylocity (PCTY) — 7.5/10: Macro headwinds, but expansion into CFO/CIO adjacencies + poaching talent.
Tenable (TENB) — 7.5/10: Reframing as exposure mgmt, not just vuln mgmt; 3x rev multiple = washed out.
Workiva (WK) — 7.5/10: Pivot to profitability, 1,000bps OM upside, trades 4x revs. ESG drag fading.
Neutral / Caution
Datadog (DDOG) — 6.5/10: Still messy; usage consumption should normalize, but noise remains.
Fortinet (FTNT) — 6.5/10: Execution issues; security rotation favors PANW/CRWD/ZS.
Palo Alto (PANW), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Zscaler (ZS), Cloudflare (NET) — 7–7.5/10: Still core security names, but crowded trades; investors watching carefully.
Re-Rating Stories
ADSK (Autodesk) — 8/10: Activist involvement; business model cleanup; clearer story.
PTC — 7.5/10: Past macro headwinds; CRO reinvigoration helps GTM.
Big Picture
The contrarian play is software.
Hardware/semi is crowded; investors are already long.
Software is under-owned, under-loved, trading cheap — yet consumption trends are healthy and AI workloads are real.
🧠 Summary
Software has become the anti-consensus trade. While the Street hides in semis, names like ServiceNow, Snowflake, MongoDB, and Elastic are quietly beating and raising. Disinterest has created opportunity: these are the next AI must-owns.
Ticker | Rating | Why Now | Near-Term Catalysts |
|---|---|---|---|
NOW | 8.5/10 | AI orchestration, 30% ASP uplift, Fed momentum improving | Analyst/user events; federal wins; pipeline conversion |
MDB | 8.5/10 | Atlas growth re-accel; data layer core to AI workloads | Atlas consumption; new workloads |
SNOW | 8.5/10 | 32% product rev growth; conservative guide; AI attach strong | Snowpark/Dynamic Tables attach; AI project budgets |
ESTC | 8.5/10 | Search/log/security convergence; beats & raises; under-owned | Pricing realization; federal tailwind follow-through |
FROG | 8/10 | Clear AI winner (“more code = more binaries”), security traction | Security/Xray product momentum; Sept user event |
OKTA | 8/10 | Last public identity name; 5x revs attractive | Execution in identity + security; product roadmap |
ADSK | 8/10 | Activist pressure; story cleanup | Analyst Day; activist updates |
PCTY | 7.5/10 | Expanding into CFO/CIO adjacencies; talent poaching | Macro stabilization; salesforce productivity |
TENB | 7.5/10 | Reframing to exposure mgmt; valuation washed out (3x rev) | Uptake of Exposure Mgmt; customer adoption |
WK | 7.5/10 | Pivot to profitability; 1000bps OM upside; 4x rev | Profitability focus; GTM realignment |
PTC | 7.5/10 | GTM reinvigoration; past macro headwinds fading | CRO-driven execution improvements |
DDOG | 6.5/10 | Messy story; consumption recovery still uneven | Consumption normalization; next earnings |
FTNT | 6.5/10 | Execution issues; losing share to PANW/CRWD/ZS | Product traction; competitive positioning |
PANW/CRWD/ZS/NET | 7–7.5/10 | Core security leaders; but crowded trades | Sector rotation; earnings beats |
The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover
Tue, Sep 30, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT |
-Why the 60/40 strategy is dead and what to do instead
- How to use AI to uncover today and tomorrow's hottest themes
- 4 unknown edges that still exist in today's market
- How to set up your portfolio for asymmetrical returns
- Little-known asset class that has limited risk and potentially unlimited returns
- 4 ways to hedge your portfolio that don't include bonds
Click Below to Register |
📈 Stock Corner
Today’s stock is ORCL…..
It had some problems but as of this morning it looks like it’s pulling an undercut and rally at the 50 day. From Stifel this morning…..
ORCL (Tues AMC) Given the company’s 8-K from June highlighting a strong start to FY26, in combination with solid results from the other hyperscalers (+Azure, +GCP, =AWS) and stable consumption trends from other June and July quarter peers, we believe ORCL is well positioned to post revenue growth (11-13% Y/Y-USD) and cloud growth (26-30% Y/Y-CC) above guidance. Looking forward, we note that management already delivered and raised the FY26 revenue guide to $67B (vs. $66B previously) and >20% FY27 growth guidance, but our expectations for a strong FY26, we believe management could raise these targets once again.
📬 In Case You Missed It
.@TuttleCapital calls $AVGO a 'must own' AI chip stock. However, he's cautious about valuation, saying Broadcom needs a 'cure for cancer' to justify higher stock prices. @TomWhite_S discusses example options trades for AVGO.
— #Schwab Network (#@SchwabNetwork)
3:12 PM • Sep 4, 2025
🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help
ETFs: The Antidote to Wall Street
Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know
Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy
Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled
Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2025 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.