Wall Streetās 60/40 formula was born in 1952 ā the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since.
Thatās why we created a new approach ā The H.E.A.T. Formula ā to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth.
Table of Contents
š„ Hereās Whatās Happening Now
A massively hotter than expected PPI led to an initial market selloff, only to end flattish. Momentum stocks got crushed along with crypto. Oh, and that move into small cap stocks got reversed hard as well. All in all a pretty ugly day if you are invested in anything that has been strong.
Why didnāt the market as a whole sell off? The narrative seems to be that most of the increase in PPI was in trade services, which doesnāt flow into PCE (the Fedās preffered inflation measure). Bottom line, this hot PPI doesnāt change the fact that the Fed will cut in September.
The only thing going on today is the Trump Putin meeting. Trump is already downplaying expectations, but CCIR/KYIV which I pointed out the other day isnātā¦..
The Dow could be up big today, donāt be fooled, most of that move will be from UNH which Warren Buffet increased his stake in. UNH was going to be the stock of the day, but I decided on INTC instead (see below).
Earlier this week I wrote about how you can use option flow to find edges. Option flow would have led you to both of these stocks as they both had unusual option activity leading up to news.
š§ Space: The Next Frontier?
Weāve been talking space a lot on the podcast (see below for yesterdayās episode). When I talk about themes I always mention that you need to be invested in today, AND tomorrowās hottest themes. Space is one of those tomorrow themes.
A few weeks ago we had a guest who enlightened us that there are things that we make on earth that donāt do well in gravity, so in the future there will be advantages to putting that manufacturing in space.
It will also make sense to have data centers and energy generation in space as well. Having massive industry in space also means we have to protect it and we will have to be able to transport things back and forth. There will be a target rich environment for first order, second order, and third order thinking.
As part of the Trumpās Inner Circle theme, and the soon to be launched Tuttle Capital Government Grift ETF (GRFT), you also need to pay attention to Trumpās handpicked winners and losersā¦..
The order could directly benefit companies such as SpaceX, Blue Origin LLC, United Launch Alliance LLC and Rocket Lab, and also instructs federal departments to determine if states are hindering development of spaceport infrastructure.
A lot of the top names are private, so pay attention to the IPOsā¦..
On Thursday, Northrop Grumman-backed Firefly Aerospace ā whose Blue Ghost lander successfully touched down on the Moon earlier this year ā surged in itsĀ NasdaqĀ debut under the ticker symbol FLY.
Speaking of private companies, keep an eye on these guys, their engine technology sounds like a game changerā¦.
So to some potential winners and losersā¦ā¦.
Why Now for Space Stocks
IPO Window Cracking Open: Firefly Aerospace (FLY), Karman Holdings, and Voyager Technologies have all had strong traditional listings in 2025, reversing the post-2021 SPAC slump.
Capital Market Conditions: U.S. IPO volumes are at their strongest since 2021; space deals benefit from national security alignment, government contract insulation from tariffs, and thematic investor enthusiasm.
Funding & Valuation Tailwinds: Q2 2025 saw $3.1B invested in space startups vs $2.1B in Q1 ā appetite is back, even for speculative names.
Geopolitical Catalysts: Golden Dome missile defense, hypersonics, and space-based missile interceptors are pushing valuations higher for defense-adjacent space plays.
Lower Entry Barriers Coming: Reusable tech + cost competition could expand TAM to new commercial models (communications, ISR, debris removal).
First-Order Winners ā Direct Exposure to Space CapEx & Contracts
Company | Segment | Why It Wins |
|---|---|---|
Firefly Aerospace (FLY) | Lunar landers, launch | Successful Moon landing, strong NASA and defense contracts, IPO momentum. |
Karman Holdings (KRM) | Defense + space hardware | Scaled manufacturer with U.S. defense tailwinds; IPO pop shows demand. |
Voyager Technologies (VOYG) | Satellite + space systems | Defense adjacency, strong public debut; monitor execution post-IPO. |
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) | Small/mid-launch | Proven cadence, expanding into spacecraft manufacturing. |
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) | Lunar services | NASA CLPS contracts; high-beta lunar infrastructure play. |
Northrop Grumman (NOC) | Prime contractor | Equity stake in Firefly; deep space, missile defense, and satellite exposure. |
Lockheed Martin (LMT) | Defense + space interceptors | Lead on Golden Dome space-based missile defense. |
Maxar Technologies (private) | Geospatial imagery | Key ISR supplier to U.S. & allies; IPO candidate if market stays open. |
Second-Order Winners ā Picks & Shovels, Enablers, and Infrastructure
Company | Segment | Why It Wins |
|---|---|---|
Redwire (RDW) | Space infrastructure, in-orbit manufacturing | Materials for satellites & deep space; benefits from commercial & gov. demand. |
Viasat (VSAT) / Eutelsat (ETL.PA) | SATCOM | Bandwidth demand from defense, commercial, and consumer space apps. |
Vertiv (VRT) / Modine (MOD) | Power & thermal | Data center tech leveraged to ground control + mission ops facilities. |
Aerojet Rocketdyne (LMT) | Propulsion | Rocket and missile propulsion in high demand with hypersonics buildout. |
Qualcomm (QCOM) / AMD (AMD) | Space-grade compute | Avionics and edge compute for satellites & spacecraft. |
Astroscale (private) | Debris removal | Likely beneficiary if Japanās proposed debris regulation advances. |
Likely Losers ā Structural Headwinds or Competitive Squeeze
SPAC-Era Overpromisers: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Momentus (MNTS) ā revenue visibility issues, tech readiness concerns.
Single-Mission Launch Startups: Those without diversified service lines may get crushed by reusable rocket price wars from SpaceX, Rocket Lab, and Firefly.
Foreign ComponentāDependent Builders: Vulnerable to cost spikes or supply chain delays if U.S.-China trade tensions tighten.
Key Themes for Positioning
1. Defense-Aligned Space = Durable Cash Flows
Missile defense (Golden Dome), hypersonics, ISR satellites have bipartisan political support.
Contracts often multi-year and insulated from macro/FX volatility.
2. Cost Compression Will Expand TAM
Reusable rockets (SpaceX, Firefly, Rocket Lab) lowering launch costs.
Opens viability for new business models: space-based manufacturing, quantum comms, debris removal.
3. IPO Cycle = Liquidity + Valuation Events
Early entrants (FLY, VOYG, KARM) getting premium multiples.
Monitor backlog-to-revenue conversion in first two quarters post-listing for durability.
Tactical Watchlist
Core Longs (defense-aligned + proven execution):
LMT, NOC, RKLB, FLY
High-Beta IPO/Moonshot Basket:
VOYG, LUNR, RDW
Picks & Shovels / Infrastructure:
VRT, MOD, QCOM
Pairs/Hedges:
Long RKLB vs Short ASTS (execution spread)
Long FLY vs Short overvalued SPAC-era lunar plays
Because one day the market will actually sell off.
š Stock Corner
Todayās stock is Intel (INTC)ā¦.
As I said above, and say often, follow Trump and follow the option flow. INTC had unusual flow a couple of days before this announcement.
š¬ In Case You Missed It
Iām going to be talking a lot about the option income space very soon. In the meantime, Si is someone who you should listen to IMHO. Full disclosure, we are the subadvisor to TSPYā¦..
š¤ Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help
ETFs: The Antidote to Wall Street
Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesnāt Want You To Know
Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy
Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled
Advanced HEAT Insights: Mattās Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge
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