As I’ve continued to say, I am paying attention to what Trump tweets about markets. As long as he is bullish, I’m bullish, and I think tariff issues are more Art of the Deal at this point…..

Then you have the Fed….

I would not bet against Trump getting what he wants.

Of course nobody has any idea on whether Bitcoin will lose steam here or not…..

So far all the bears are looking pretty dumb…..

Long time readers know I don’t like regional banks…..

Below we take deep dives on stablecoins, P&C companies, and healthcare. Stablecoins are a theme that I think will continue to get bigger, P&C is something I think you should have exposure to for diversification, and the healthcare names are just one of those transitory opportunities that sometimes pop up after a major selloff…….

🔥 HEAT Formula Playbook: Themes-Stablecoins

Stablecoins are one of the most interesting new themes. I recently went into Fiserv (FI) and noticed that B Riley upgraded them yesterday….

Fiserv, Inc. (FI - $170.42, Buy; $249.00 PT); Company Update - Hal Goetsch; [email protected]; 617-951-6995

• We believe FI is better positioned to monetize stablecoin adoption than most investors realize.

• Stablecoin players need to get into payments, but companies like FI are already there. We see stablecoins as just another acceptance method that FI will bring into its already vast global payment and fintech capabilities.

• FI's network and regulatory infrastructure is far harder to replicate with 10,000 bank connections, 6M merchants and 1.7B customer accounts.

• FI was left behind in the recent rally. Shares are trading at only 17.0x and 14.6x our 2025/2026 estimates, respectively. We see significant upside to our $249 PT from current levels.

So I had GPT take another deep dive into the industry for potential winners and losers…..

Here's a fully integrated breakdown of stablecoin infrastructure plays—including Fiserv (FI) and peers like Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), PayPal (PYPL), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and others. The focus is on publicly investable names (or likely-to-be), filtered for asymmetric upside, stablecoin yield monetization, and regulatory readiness.

🧱 Stablecoins 2.0: The Infrastructure Race

As stablecoins transition from crypto-novelty to fiat-on-chain payment rails, the winners won’t just be token issuers—they’ll be the rails, APIs, and clearing layers that integrate dollars-on-chain into traditional finance.

🧠 The Big 5 Investable Stablecoin Infrastructure Plays

🔍 Strategic Comparison Table

🔥 Optional Plays (Lower Liquidity or Riskier)

🧭 Investment Takeaways

1. Core Portfolio

   • Fiserv (FI): Best risk/reward profile, especially after lagging recent fintech rally.

   • Coinbase (COIN): Benefiting from float yield + chain monetization + regulated custody.

   • Circle (CRCL): Pre-IPO accumulation if available, or via PIPE/post-listing.

2. Supplemental

   • Visa / Mastercard: Long-term plays on clearing evolution; slower monetization path.

   • PayPal: Retail-focused, moderate exposure. Best paired with FI or COIN.

3. Watchlist / Optionality

   • HOOD, Ripple, Avalanche-based plays (via ETFs) for risk-adjusted tokenization trades.

🧠 Bottom Line

🔥 HEAT Formula Playbook: Themes-Property & Casualty Insurers

I am a big believer in the diversification benefit of adding property & casualty insurers to your portfolio. If you look back over the past five years the Invesco KBW Property and Casualty ETF has a .542 weekly correlation to the SPY ETF and a .046 correlation to the AGG ETF (according to Bloomberg). So this tweet caught my attention, P&C companies are having a rough month, so I wondered whether this was good news, bad news, or no news. I had GPT take a deep dive…..

🧠 What This Means for Property & Casualty Insurers

👍 Good News

1. Underwriting Margin Relief

   • Higher premiums help carriers remedy elevated loss ratios, especially after recent years of severe catastrophe losses .

   • Insurers can better charge “true risk” prices, strengthening future profitability.

2. Improved Rate Adequacy

   • Across most U.S. states, rate filings are aligning closer to actual expected loss trends, reducing risk of underpricing or reserve depletion

3. Selective Market Withdrawal = Less Competition

   • Insurers exiting high-risk markets (e.g., Louisiana, Florida) reduce supply, allowing remaining carriers to increase prices and margins

⚠️ Mixed / Challenging

1. Affordability & Premium Elasticity

   • Dramatic increases (e.g., $14,000/yr in Louisiana) may exceed consumer tolerance, leading to non-renewals, policy cancellations, or demand for state-backed plans .

2. Regulatory & Political Pushback

   • Some states might impose rate caps or stricter justifications (e.g., Florida, California), limiting how aggressively insurers can price .

3. Rising Loss Severity from Climate

   • Even with higher premiums, carriers face persistent or increasing catastrophe losses, suggesting underwriting gains won’t be guaranteed .

🏆 Potential Winners in the P&C Landscape

1. Large, Diversified P&C Carriers

   • Chubb (CB), Travelers (TRV), AIG (AIG): Strong capital buffers and ability to selectively withdraw from unprofitable zones while increasing margins elsewhere.

2. Reinsurance and NatCat Specialists

   • MMC (Marsh & McLennan), AON (AON), Brokers like WLTW (Willis Towers Watson) gain from surging treaty prices and renewed risk-layer pricing.

3. Regional Carriers with Niche Focus

   • HCI Group (HCI) in Florida, Amerisafe (AMSE) selectively raising rates in hard-hit states.

   • Others stepping into vacated markets as ”underwriting specialists”.

💡 Notable Risks & Watch-Outs

• State-backed insurers (e.g., Florida Citizens, California FAIR Plan) may absorb displaced customers, reducing private carrier exposure.

• Mortgage delinquencies and housing market volatility—exacerbated by rising insurance costs—can lead to policyholder churn .

• Continued severe weather could overwhelm rate increases, trapping insurers in loss cycles.

🔢 Summary Table

🎯 Investment Takeaways

• Overweight:

  • Chubb (CB): Global footprint, strong capital structure, best-in-class nat cat underwriting.

  • Travelers (TRV): Balanced portfolio, rate momentum, data-driven underwriting.

• Select Regional Plays:

  • HCI Group in Florida — agile, regionally focused pricing strategy.

• Reinsurance Brokers:

  • MMC / AON — benefit from broader rate normalization and client demand.

🧠 Bottom Line

Rising home insurance prices are a double-edged sword. They help insurers recalibrate pricing to meet increased risk but simultaneously stress affordability, especially in disaster-prone states. Well-capitalized, diversified carriers with strong underwriting discipline stand to profit significantly, while exposed or overly concentrated players could struggle.

UBS also came out with a note on P&C yesterday…..

Here's a consolidated, institutional-grade view of the P&C insurance sector, integrating UBS’s 2Q25 call with earlier analysis (Insurify home insurance inflation data, climate trends) and pointing to clear portfolio actions.

🧠 UBS View (July 9, 2025):

“Favor Personal Lines, Cautious on Commercial, Brokers Attractive Post-Print”

🔍 Key Points:

• P&C stocks -4% in Q2, underperforming both S&P Financials (+5%) and the S&P 500 (+11%)

• Rotation out of “defensives” like insurance → into banks and rate-sensitive cyclicals

• Valuation:

  • P&C carriers now trade below 10-year average P/E

  • Insurance brokers trading at a 5% premium to historical averages, but still well below peak relative multiples

• Tactical call:

  • Buy personal lines (e.g., ALL) into Q2

  • Wait on commercial lines

  • Own brokers post-earnings for operating leverage

🧭 Integrated View: What’s the Setup for P&C Now?

🔥 Stock-Level Ratings (1–10)

🟢 Personal Lines Winners (Buy into Q2)

🟡 Commercial Lines (Wait & See)

🟢 Brokers (Buy Post-Print)

💡 Strategy Summary

📈 1. Own Personal Lines Into Q2 Earnings

• Allstate (ALL) is the cleanest expression of the home insurance repricing trade, with the sharpest YoY increase in premiums already approved in key states (CA, FL, TX).

• Travelers (TRV) and Chubb (CB) also benefit from better rate capture, particularly in auto + umbrella.

💰 2. Post-Q2, Rotate Into Brokers

• MMC and AON are positioned to outperform on pricing volume and deferred earnings momentum. They monetize market volatility and insurance rate dispersion, not just claims.

🕓 3. Hold Off on Commercial Lines

• Near-term margin headwinds from reinsurance, wage inflation, and loss costs (esp. liability + property) may not show recovery until Q4 or 2026 renewals.

📌 Final Takeaway

🔥 HEAT Formula Playbook: Themes-Healthcare Providers and Payors

Healthcare payers and providers are usually not that interesting to me, but what’s going on with UNH and CNC has put this area into play. I run a weekly RSI strategy to buy stocks that have gotten hit, and through that I am now in CNC, ELV, and MOH, so when I saw Cantor came out with a report on the area I had GPT take a deep dive…..

🎯 Core Thesis from Cantor: Providers > Payors into 2Q25

Cantor’s analyst Sarah James highlights a constructive near-term setup for providers over payors, but names ELV, MOH, and CNC as high-conviction rebound trades among the payor group, particularly after recent weakness and guidance resets.

🔍 Deep Dive: Your Current Holdings

🔵 ELV (Elevance Health)

Cantor View: Better positioned than UNH, but investor fears remain elevated due to adverse selection and Medicaid pressure.

• Investor fear: MA (Medicare Advantage) adverse selection risk due to 12% enrollment growth.

• Cantor disagrees: Believes risk is materially lower than UNH, and ELV has cleaner exposure.

• Guidance:

  • ELV guided 1H25 EPS to be 60% of FY, which aligns with Cantor's $8.77 estimate (but below Street’s $9.16).

  • Buy-side expectations appear met, Street expectations still too high—setting up potential beat.

Rating: 8.5/10 — Attractive rebound setup, especially if Street revises expectations downward and ELV clears a low bar.

🔵 MOH (Molina Healthcare)

Cantor View: Mixed. Revised after 2Q25 and FY guidance update due to cost trend acceleration across all lines: Medicaid, MA, and exchanges.

• Medicaid: Cited increasing cost pressures mid-quarter.

• MA: Noted headwinds but not as deep as UNH.

• Guidance: Likely de-risked now, after reset.

Rating: 6.5/10 — Ownable on dip, but macro health cost trends make it a less durable long unless visibility improves.

🔵 CNC (Centene)

Cantor View: Recently withdrew 2025 guidance—spooked market short term, but updated commentary suggests MA and PDP (Part D) developing better than expected.

• Marketplace line: Still under pressure.

• MA: Improving vs. prior tone.

• Cost pressure: Exists, but not systemic.

Rating: 7.5/10 — Now derisked and likely to surprise positively. A solid tactical long.

💡 Other Stocks Worth Watching (Based on Cantor Report)

🔶 HCA (HCA Healthcare) — Cantor Favorite on Provider Side

• Set up for a beat and raise.

• TN DPP benefit + hurricane recovery = revenue tailwind.

• Pricing and volume assumptions conservative.

Rating: 8.5/10 — Attractive in your framework; levered to macro recovery, not just medical trend stability.

🔶 THC (Tenet Healthcare)

• Positive setup from acuity mix and 2.9% adjusted admissions growth.

• Benefits from TN DPP and limited Texas flood exposure.

Rating: 8.0/10 — Good tactical exposure to provider upside; favorable intra-quarter momentum.

🔷 UNH (UnitedHealth)

• Returning CEO Steve Hemsley cleaning up Optum.

• Guidance likely conservative now (~$19–20 EPS vs. Street at $22).

• MA & supplemental benefits to be scaled back.

Rating: 8.0/10 — High quality, but not quite washed out yet; ideal post-reset trade if Q2 delivers a beat and modest raise.

📈 Final Rankings (1–10 Scale | Investment Potential from Current Levels)

🧠 Strategy Summary

• You’ve bought the right names at the right time, as all three (ELV, MOH, CNC) have seen:

  • Fundamental resets

  • Underperformance vs. peers

  • Setup for sentiment reversal if Q2 prints beat sandbagged estimates

• Pair these with HCA or THC for exposure to the “provider rebound” trade, which Cantor sees as more attractive than payors heading into 2H25.

Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help

1. ETFs: The Antidote to Wall Street

2. Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know

3. Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy

4. Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled

5. Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge

   The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2025 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.