I’ve been a trader and investor for 44 years. I left Wall Street long ago—-once I understood that their obsolete advice is designed to profit them, not you.
Today, my firm manages around $5 billion in ETFs, and I don’t answer to anybody. I tell the truth because trying to fool investors doesn’t help them, or me.
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Table of Contents
H.E.A.T.
Back to Themes today, and one of our favorite’s are the rare earths. Today we cover one that most people probably have never heard of…….
The Antimony Awakening: How a “Forgotten” Metal Just Became a National-Security Trade (and Who Wins Next)
China’s export chokehold just turned antimony (Sb) from mine tailings into a strategic asset. Beijing restricted exports last year—banning shipments to the U.S. in December—and despite a recent trade “truce,” flows haven’t normalized. Prices are ~4x two years ago at the exact moment Western defense supply chains need to rearm and restock (Ukraine, Israel/Gaza), because antimony is mission-critical: it hardens bullets and armor-piercing rounds, strengthens alloys, acts as a flame-retardant synergist, and shows up in select semiconductors/sensors. The U.S. has barely produced antimony for decades; China mines ~60% and dominates refining. That fragility is now the test case for whether America can onshore critical minerals at speed. Washington is moving. The Pentagon has already started writing checks: $43M to accelerate an Alaska project; $245M for United States Antimony to supply ingots to the national defense stockpile; additional DPA/Title III support across Idaho/Alaska restarts. Operators are dusting off old gold districts where Sb occurs with quartz and stibnite—Fairbanks, AK (United States Antimony; Felix Gold’s Treasure Creek) and Idaho’s Stibnite district—while expanding smelting capacity in Montana to avoid foreign tolling. Expect Section 232 and “critical minerals” policy to keep ratcheting: tariff priority, fast-track permits, federal purchase agreements, and stockpile pre-buys. This is bigger than munitions. Sb also underpins lead-acid batteries, specialty solders, optics, and flame retardants—inputs that touch autos, grid gear, and industrial electrics. In a market already short electrons for AI data centers, substitutable-but-constrained materials become structural inflation pass-throughs: defense first, everyone else pays later.
First-order beneficiaries (closest to the money):
United States Antimony (UAMY) — Only domestic smelter of scale; now holding $245M DoD contract, expanding Montana smelting and pushing Alaska feedstock. Highest torque to funding, permitting, and price.
Perpetua Resources (PPTA) — Idaho’s Stibnite project (gold + significant antimony) with prior DOD/Title III support; if it finalizes permits/financing, it’s a direct domestic ore-to-munition lever.
Felix Gold (ASX: FXG) — Near-surface Sb at Treasure Creek (Fairbanks); a near-term “dig & deliver” story if permits stay on track (watch community friction/light/noise mitigation).
Mandalay Resources (MND.TO) — The Costerfield mine (Au-Sb) is one of the West’s few scale Sb sources; an immediate, allied-market swing producer into tightness.
Second-order winners (where the flow goes next):Ammo & primers: OLN (Winchester), POWW — secure Sb supply de-risks munitions cadence; DoD stocking keeps volumes high.
Defense primes: LMT, NOC, GD — not Sb-pure plays but direct beneficiaries of secure inputs and stockpile policy; margins protected when materials are government-prioritized.
Flame-retardant & bromine complex: ALB (bromine) and related formulators — Sb trioxide is a co-synergist; tight Sb keeps pricing power across polymer FR systems.
Grid/industrial electrics: ETN, HUBB — pass-through ability on specialty alloys/FR materials as critical-mineral policy internalizes costs.
Recyclers/processing tech: any NA/EU processor that can reclaim Sb from lead-acid battery streams or e-waste gains durable tailwinds (several leaders are private; watch disclosures for capacity add-ons).
What to watch next (policy and project catalysts):Section 232 outcomes & critical-minerals list updates that hard-wire tariff preferences, federal offtake, and permitting acceleration.
Stockpile buys & DPA/Title III grants — early signals for volume/price floors that bankability depends on.
Permitting milestones in Alaska/Idaho (EIS, Record of Decision); community accommodations (trail/light/noise) that de-risk timelines.
Processing capacity in North America — smelter expansions are as critical as ore; “mine-to-ingot” inside the tariff perimeter will command a premium.
Risks (size positions accordingly): permitting and local pushback (Fairbanks light and access issues), small-cap execution, price volatility if Chinese exports partially resume (defense grades likely still constrained), and historic boom-bust cycles in Sb. But DoD funding and stockpile contracts meaningfully truncate left tail for the domestic chain.Portfolio approach (how to actually play it): anchor a barbell of a pure-play + a permitted advanced project (UAMY + PPTA) and pair with a liquid defense/munitions sleeve (OLN and a prime like LMT). Add a small-cap exploration call option (FXG or MND.TO) sized for volatility. Use any China “truce” headline rallies to accumulate into weakness—the military grade supply will remain tight, and Washington just made antimony a policy metal, not a trade.
News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today
Fear Creeps Back Into the Junk Bond Market
After months of shrugging off risk, credit markets are finally showing cracks. The CCC-rated junk bond index fell nearly 0.8% over the past month, its sharpest underperformance against the broader high-yield complex this year, while spreads between investment-grade and high-yield debt have started to widen again. In plain English: investors are quietly moving up in quality, favoring Treasuries and blue-chip bonds over speculative paper. The shift isn’t catastrophic — overall spreads remain below their 2025 averages — but it’s meaningful. The “risk-on forever” mindset that powered the AI capex boom and corporate borrowing spree is starting to fade. Distressed dollar loans jumped to $71.8 billion, the highest since Trump’s April tariff shock, and new leveraged-loan and junk-bond deals are being shelved for lack of demand.
The warning signs are piling up: CCC spreads widened 27 bps in a week, more than twice the move across the broader junk market, while funds saw $1.3 billion in outflows — the largest since April. Weakness is concentrated in the consumer and subprime credit segments (retailers, used auto lenders, lower-tier industrials), exactly where rate hikes and inflation bite hardest. Even Apollo-backed Energos had to pull a $2B junk sale. This doesn’t mean credit contagion, but it does mark a shift from “greed” to “caution” in risk pricing. For months, corporate borrowers — including AI-adjacent players like CIFR, WULF, and private-credit-backed hyperscaler projects — relied on record-tight spreads and abundant liquidity. That window is narrowing fast.
Takeaways for investors:
Credit fatigue is real. CCC bonds are leading the weakness — a typical early-stage signal of tightening liquidity. Avoid over-levered consumer and subprime names; focus on issuers with strong free cash flow and secured assets.
Private credit and AI debt are linked. Rising high-yield spreads could spill into the structured AI financing system — where miners, data-center SPVs, and neoclouds rely on junk-rated borrowing. If funding costs rise, it could slow AI buildouts and benefit well-capitalized enablers (ETN, PWR, VST) who self-finance.
Watch stress barometers. CCC and loan spreads, CLO ETF flows, and distress supply (now ~$72B) are early indicators of systemic risk. A further rise would confirm tightening across the credit spectrum.
Positioning: Stay overweight in quality balance-sheet names — large-cap utilities, power infrastructure, insurers — and underweight in high-yield ETFs (HYG, JNK) or AI-exposed credits with weak covenants.
Bottom line: Fear is creeping back into the credit market’s riskier corners. It’s not 2008 — but it’s the first real test of an AI-driven economy that’s been built on cheap financing. When credit gets nervous, leverage-heavy innovation gets repriced.
How Else I Can Help You Beat Wall Street at Its Own Game
Inside H.E.A.T. is our monthly webinar series, sign up for this month’s webinar below….
Why Covered Call ETFs Suck-And What To Do Instead
Friday November 14, 2-3PM EST |
Covered call ETFs are everywhere — and everyone thinks they’ve found a “safe” way to collect yield in a sideways market. |
The truth? |
They cap your upside, mislead investors with “yield” that’s really your own money coming back, and often trail just owning the stock by a mile. |
Join me for a brutally honest breakdown of how these funds actually work — and what you should be doing instead. |
What You’ll Learn:
🔥 Why “high yield” covered call ETFs are often just returning your own capital |
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