All Time Highs…The Day After Spacmageddon…..The Real Message of the CRWV–CORZ Deal….KTOS Dip Buy Opportunity…..Lithium Bloodbath or Bottom Call?
“So you owe $1,000,000 on a mortgage and you can't pay it?”
“Yes, Dave.”
“And you only qualified for the home because you listed Fart Coin as an asset before it tanked?”
“That’s correct, Dave.”
— #CrusaderPepe (#@crusadepepe)
2:55 PM • Jun 26, 2025
I will be in Cannes next week, I’m speaking on this panel and I will be at the Ethereum Community Conference. If you are there look me up. I do plan on writing the newsletter next week as the time zone change should make it easier.
All time highs on the stock market but lest we forget…….
In case you forgot:
President Trump's 90-day tariff pause now only has 13 days remaining.
This means without any new trade deals, on July 9th, tariff rates will rise as follows:
1. Country-specific "reciprocal tariffs" return
2. Tariffs of up to 50% on EU imports
3. 30%— #The Kobeissi Letter (#@KobeissiLetter)
5:39 PM • Jun 26, 2025
Then again, maybe never mind?
WHITE HOUSE: JULY 9TH DEADLINE FOR TRADE DEALS NOT IMPORTANT
— #*Walter Bloomberg (#@DeItaone)
5:39 PM • Jun 26, 2025
China’s 🇨🇳 Ministry of Commerce said both sides confirmed framework details for upcoming China-U.S. talks in London. Beijing hopes the U.S. will work together to strengthen the economic consultation mechanism, adding the U.S. will lift a series of restrictions on China while
— #Wall St Engine (#@wallstengine)
7:02 AM • Jun 27, 2025
Still agree with Mohit on the overall market view here…..
Geopolitics has moved to the back seat and the path of least resistance should be higher for risky assets. Our view has been that investor positioning is light and there is a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines which should continue to support risky assets. Our positioning indices suggest that positioning has started to become less supportive than a few weeks ago, but is far from stretched. Hence, our view from here is a slow grind higher rather than a sharp rally from these levels.
This is also interesting…..
Bessent was reported to be in favor of removing article 899 which could have led to additional taxes on foreign holdings of US assets. Market has not given due importance to the implications of article 899. We believe that a removal of this clause would help to calm some sentiment of investors looking to move away from US assets into European and Asian assets. Given the outperformance of EU assets vs the US over recent months, the proposal could lead to a short term outperformance of US over Europe.
Besides European defense names I have thought the move towards Europe was just short term money moving from perceived overvalued to perceived undervalued. Intermediate to longer term I have no interest in Europe besides the defense names.
The last piece to what Trump is trying to do is to get an interest rate cut. News floating around that he will preemptively name Powell’s successor, then this…..
There is deep momentum in Washington building for Jerome Powell’s resignation.
— #Pulte (#@pulte)
9:24 PM • Jun 26, 2025
Q3 starts next week and unless Core CPI accelerates, the FOMC is on pace to resume easing during the quarter. The debate is whether it is the next meeting in July or the following meeting in September. Furthermore, the expectation is that in a year’s time when Powell’s successor is in place, the easing will accelerate. It is precisely the trend and pace of policy investors salivate over. As long as the economy continues to grow, there is nothing better than knowing the Fed is on your side for the next year, with an extra kiss at the end.
A couple of things to keep an eye on though. First was a decline in first quarter GDP citing downward revisions to consumer spending. I’m going to be talking about this on NewsNation this morning at 7:25AM. I think the consumer is stretched. The question is when/if that will start to be reflected in markets. Second is our massive debt and what push back the bond vigilantes could have on our interest rates. Third, times like this when news is great and volatility is low are just the time when something comes out of left field. One of the reasons I tell investors to always have hedges just in case.
SPACs snapped back a bit yesterday after what I call Spacmageddon. Perfect timing to talk SPACs with Julian Klymochko ….
Wisdom from Le Shrub…..
$CCCM SPAC deal should be a wake-up call for the rest of the SPAC sponsors that they can’t get away with just buying Bitcoin, put it in a structure at 2x NAV and expect to be paid!
Get some REAL deals done!
Otherwise go back to the gutters you crawled out from 🥹👋🏻
— #Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺🇦 (#@agnostoxxx)
4:58 PM • Jun 26, 2025
Meanwhile, Cantor Equity Partners III (CAEP) IPO’d at $10 and closed at $10.50. This is the latest potential “hot” SPAC….
Strength in the IPO market is also directly related to strength in the SPAC market.
This was perhaps the most interesting news of the day….
I’ve been long CRWV for a while. A couple of the discords I’m in starting buying CORZ a few days ago, I unfortunately did not. I am intrigued though about what impact this could have on the entire cyrpo ecosystem so I had GPT take a deep dive….
Great—let’s shift the lens squarely to what the CRWV–CORZ buyout could mean for Bitcoin-native companies like miners and treasury-heavy plays (e.g. MSTR, SMLR, FLD). Here's a Nobel-worthy breakdown of the second-order effects this deal may unleash:
🧠 Big Picture: The Real Message of the CRWV–CORZ Deal
This is not a bet on Bitcoin.
It’s a bet on infrastructure monetization beyond Bitcoin—power + real estate + compute, with AI replacing BTC as the primary monetization layer.
CRWV isn’t buying Core Scientific (CORZ) for its Bitcoin production per se… it's buying 500+ megawatts of low-cost, plugged-in, ready-to-scale compute infrastructure with long-term energy contracts. This deal signals to the market:
“Bitcoin miners are mispriced infrastructure plays. Their future value lies in AI, not in hash rate.”
🔥 Implications for Bitcoin Miners (RIOT, MARA, HUT, CLSK, GLXY)
🎯 The market will re-rate miners on AI monetization optionality, not just BTC sensitivity.
Company | Infra Scale | AI Monetization Potential | Commentary | Investment Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
RIOT | ~800MW (targeting >1GW) | Medium–High | Has legacy AI-hosting interest via Rhodium JV. If they pivot more aggressively, they become an M&A target. | 7/10 – Underappreciated AI angle. |
MARA | 1.1GW under management | Low–Medium | Focused on mining only. Needs to signal AI transition to avoid multiple compression. | 5/10 – Stagnant if it stays pure-BTC. |
HUT 8 | Merged with USBTC: 825MW | High | Already pivoting into AI + HPC hosting. Looks like “next CORZ” in scale and strategy. | 8/10 – Major rerating potential. |
CLSK | 1GW+ expected by 2025 | Medium | Hasn’t pivoted AI yet—but owns cheap energy + real estate. M&A candidate if AI focus increases. | 6.5/10 – Watch for new strategy. |
GLXY | Miner + finance + VC | Medium | Indirect exposure to infra via investments; may fund AI-related buildouts or acquire distressed BTC miners. | 7/10 – Balanced exposure. |
🧩 Key Takeaway for Miners:
Those that pivot to AI + HPC hosting will be rewarded.
Those that remain “hash-only” risk derating or take-under valuations.
🧾 Implications for Bitcoin Treasury Cos (MSTR, SMLR, FLD, etc)
The CRWV–CORZ deal underscores this painful truth:
Bitcoin on the balance sheet is no longer enough to justify tech multiples.
Wall Street now wants:
Productive use of capital
Platform leverage (infra, software, or AI monetization)
Regulatory insulation
Company | BTC Holdings | Core Business | Strategic Leverage | Investment Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
MSTR | ~214,400 BTC | Business intelligence software | No AI/infra story. Pure BTC. | 6/10 – Valuation sensitive to BTC price. |
SMLR | 3,300+ BTC | Medical tech | No cash flow beyond BTC. Execution risk high. | 5/10 – Needs new catalyst. |
FLD | 1,485 BTC | BTC-native fintech | Early-stage growth. Could build an AI angle. | 5.5/10 – Small float. Volatile upside. |
Metaplanet (3350.T) | 5,000 BTC | Pivoting from gaming to BTC asset play | “Asian MicroStrategy” with cult following. | 6/10 – FX + Bitcoin beta only. |
💡 What they need to do:
Leverage BTC to launch lending desks, tokenized treasury products, or sovereign BTC custody.
Buy distressed infrastructure (à la CRWV) or plug into AI compute cycles.
Otherwise, they risk being seen as passive Bitcoin ETFs with overhead.
🛠️ Potential Strategic Moves & Buyout Targets
🔮 Potential Buyout / JV Targets (Next CORZ)
Company | Why It Could Be Targeted |
|---|---|
HUT 8 | Already AI/HPC adjacent; scalable footprint + regulatory pathway. |
CLSK | Public miner with >1GW and clean grid access. Would fit CRWV, MSFT, or GOOG AI buildout. |
Bitdeer (BTDR) | AI pivot already underway; owns chips + infrastructure in Texas. |
Riot (RIOT) | Large-scale footprint + vertical power assets = juicy target. |
🏁 Investment Conclusion: The Great Bitcoin Re-Rating Is Coming
Theme | Action |
|---|---|
AI Infra = Premium | Accumulate HUT 8, RIOT, and CLSK on dips. |
Pure Hash = Cheap | Avoid MARA unless it pivots strategy. |
BTC Treasury = Flat | Hold MSTR, SMLR, FLD only as macro Bitcoin trades, not long-term core. |
Next Deal? | Watch for consolidation: GLXY may go on the hunt. CleanSpark or Bitdeer could be next targets. |
🧠 Nobel-Worthy Insight:
“The future of Bitcoin mining is not mining. It’s compute arbitrage—turning stranded energy into AI revenue. The CRWV–CORZ deal is the first domino in a new infrastructure thesis where miners either evolve into AI landlords… or get absorbed.”
Drones are one of my favorite themes……
KTOS was an obvious play yesterday as it sold off on a secondary and closed way off the lows….
ONDS also continues to move higher…..
Remember though, this thing could go to 10, it could also go to zero.
🧭Lithium Bloodbath or Bottom Call?
As we reach all time highs I am looking for areas that haven’t participated and I came across lithium. According to GPT……
Demand for lithium is expected to roughly quadruple by 2030, driven by EV adoption and grid-scale storage solutions . However, we’re clearly in a cycle of oversupply and depressed pricing—Global production surged ~63% from 2022 to 2024, triggering a glut. Lithium prices hit a four-year low recently.
I do like this ALB chart…..
But I’ve also been burned on lithium names a lot in the past. GPT doesn’t think this is a barn burner…..
🏭 Albemarle (ALB): Survivor or Straggler?
Earnings & margins under pressure: Q1 net loss (ex special items) of 18¢/share missed expectations amid a 34% drop in lithium prices .
Strategic cost control: Shelved expansion in China/Australia, job cuts, and asset mothballing to align with demand realities .
Tariff protection: Exemptions have softened trade headwinds .
Still debt-heavy: ~$3.5 B debt vs just ~$1 B in cash; financing risk remains.
📈 Verdict: A high-quality asset in a commodity trough. If the supply/demand balance tightens—as expected—ALB may outperform significantly. But the timing is murky.
However, ALB also has a preferred issue….
Those familiar with my new version of the Permanent Portfolio know that preferred shares make up a part of the allocation. This could be a way to play the theme.
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