Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since.
That’s why we created a new approach — The H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth.
Table of Contents
🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now
OpenAI and AMD was the news of the day. This is on the heels of other AI investment deals that have moved individual stocks and the market. The tape told you everything: chips, power, racks, and anything even vaguely “agentic” caught a bid as deal headlines stacked up and the circular financing in AI got louder.
OpenAI ↔ $AMD: A multi-year, multi-GW chip deal plus warrants that could hand OpenAI ~10% of AMD if milestones hit. That’s suppliers funding customers who use the cash to buy from the suppliers — the flywheel.
The bigger picture: $NVDA investing in AI customers (CoreWeave), OpenAI striking massive commitments with $ORCL, $AVGO, and now $AMD. Even the bulls started using the word “bubbly.”
I don’t disagree with Paul Tudor Jones here…..
Which is why we suggest pairing thematic investments with a static hedge. Who knows how/when this ends, but you trade based on what you see, not what you think.
Real AI Trade ≠ Apps. It’s Power.
Every new “100-billion” AI headline is really a megawatt story — grid ties, transformers, HVDC, thermal.
Winners that get paid now: $ETN, $VRT, $HUBB, $POWL (electrical/thermal); $CEG, $VST (dispatchable power); $EQIX, $DLR (interconnect).
Chips & fabrics: $NVDA, $AVGO, $ANET still the leadership spine. $AMD back in the game on narrative + warrants.
Speculative Heat → Froth Check
Money continues to chase unprofitable “AI-halo” themes (hydrogen, quantum, EV charging). We’ve seen this movie: powerful while the music plays; vicious if/when the music stops. Trade them, don’t marry them.
Macro I Care About (only because it hits AI)
Global curves steepening on Japan’s stimulus pivot and Europe’s fiscal drama. That raises the cost of capital, which matters for long-dated AI buildouts — another reason the power complex is where cash flow lives today.
Bottom line: The story of the day wasn’t a single print or a single Fed line — it was the industrialization of AI and the increasingly circular way it’s being financed. Until unit economics catch up, power + racks + interconnect keep getting paid. When the math finally matters, the re-rating goes to the utilization and inference names. Own both sides — and keep a hedge on the levered middle.
Why Covered Call ETFs Suck-And What To Do Instead
Thursday October 23rd 2-3PM EST
Covered call ETFs are everywhere — and everyone thinks they’ve found a “safe” way to collect yield in a sideways market.
The truth?
Most of them suck.
They cap your upside, mislead investors with “yield” that’s really your own money coming back, and often trail just owning the stock by a mile.
Join me for a brutally honest breakdown of how these funds actually work — and what you should be doing instead.
What You’ll Learn:
🔥 Why “high yield” covered call ETFs are often just returning your own capital
📉 How most call-writing strategies quietly destroy compounding
🚫 Why owning covered calls in bull markets is like running a marathon in a weighted vest
💡 The simple structure that can fix these problems — and where the real daily income opportunities are hiding
🏦 The Debasement Trade: When Faith in Fiat Fails
⚙️ The Setup
The “currency debasement trade” has officially gone mainstream.
What started in late 2024 as a quiet hedge against fiscal insanity has become the defining macro theme of 2025.
Gold keeps setting records — 41 this year alone — and bitcoin just blew through $125,000.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is down roughly 10% YTD, and the government’s partial shutdown has only accelerated what’s already a structural trend: a slow-motion loss of faith in fiat.
This is no longer a goldbug fever dream — it’s the new Wall Street consensus.
💣 Why the Debasement Trade Exists
The logic is simple and terrifying:
Debt spiral:
The U.S. is running deficits of 6–6.5% of GDP in an expansion.
That’s unsustainable math — and markets know it.Monetary capture:
The Fed may talk “independence,” but political pressure to keep rates low ahead of the 2026 election is real.
Lower rates + high inflation = negative real yields → fiat erosion.Global contagion:
Japan is debasing the yen through endless stimulus.
Europe is trapped by energy subsidies and political fracture.
It’s not just the dollar that’s at risk — it’s fiat credibility itself.Washington dysfunction:
The shutdown, tariff politics, and “tariff dividend” talk have all turned the U.S. into a fiscal meme.
Investors are finally acting accordingly.
🧱 What’s Driving It Now
J.P. Morgan’s flow data tells the story:
Retail investors started buying gold and bitcoin ETFs in Q4 2024.
Institutional flows followed by Q2 2025.
The trade is now “reflexive”: higher prices → more inflows → higher prices.
Even Citi now calls bitcoin “digital gold,” with a 12-month target of $181,000.
And traditional macro funds are quietly rebuilding 18–20% gold allocations, levels not seen since the 1970s inflation shock.
As Pepperstone’s Chris Weston put it:
“There’s nothing that breeds sentiment like a market that’s going up — you’ve got to be in it.”
This is how currency confidence collapses — not with a bang, but with FOMO.
⚖️ Why Gold and Bitcoin Are Winning
Normally, these two assets compete for capital.
Now, they’re part of the same thesis.
Gold = 5,000 years of credibility, hedge against inflation and political instability.
Bitcoin = new monetary rail, hedge against monetary debasement and digital surveillance.
They appeal to different tribes, but they rhyme: both are outside the system.
That’s why this rally is broad — gold, bitcoin, and even silver are moving together for the first time since the 2010s.
🎉 Distribution News for $BITK 🎉
Tuttle Capital IBIT 0DTE Covered Call ETF
Pay Date: 10/6/25
Amount: $1.50— #Tuttle Capital (#@TuttleCap)
2:43 PM • Oct 6, 2025
🔮 What’s Next
The “debasement trade” isn’t a one-quarter theme — it’s a multi-year paradigm.
As long as:
The U.S. debt curve steepens faster than GDP,
The Fed cuts into inflation,
And global deficits remain structural,
…then this trade has legs.
The $4,000 gold call is conservative.
If deficits stay above 6% and real yields go negative, $4,500–$5,000 becomes plausible.
For bitcoin, the next leg is $180,000–$200,000 if ETF flows continue and Asian demand builds post-Yen stimulus.
🧩 The Thematic Angle
This isn’t just a macro hedge — it’s a theme:
The Death of Fiscal Discipline.
Winners:
Gold miners and royalty plays (FNV, WPM, AEM, NEM)
Crypto treasury companies (MSTR, BMNR, HUT, CLSK)
Hard-asset proxies (energy infrastructure, uranium, commodity transport)
Alternative stores of value (BTC, ETH, gold-backed tokens)
Losers:
Long-duration government bonds (TLT, IEF)
Currencies pegged to deficits (USD, JPY, EUR)
Traditional 60/40 allocators who can’t hedge fiscal risk
The next 12–24 months will favor portfolios built on real assets, digital scarcity, and optionality.
The “debasement trade” isn’t a trade — it’s a revolution.
Investors are finally waking up to the idea that fiat money itself is the bubble.
With deficits spiraling, political dysfunction growing, and the Fed boxed in, assets that live outside the system — gold, bitcoin, hard commodities — will continue to outperform.
In a world where governments print value out of existence, the only edge left is owning what can’t be printed.
Debasement Portfolio (Example)
Sleeve | Target | Instrument Examples (direct, not ETFs) | Implementation Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
Gold (allocated) | 30% | LBMA-good delivery bars/coins; COMEX 100oz futures (GC) | Prefer allocated/segregated vaulting (Brinks/Loomis); if using futures, keep low margin (≤25% notional) and stagger expiries. |
Bitcoin | 20% | On-chain BTC (self-custody or institutional custody) | Multi-sig; policy for key sharding; rebalance via TWAP; consider CME BTC futures only for short-term hedges. |
Ethereum | 7% | On-chain ETH (self-custody or institutional custody) | Treat as “digital optionality” on compute/settlement; avoid staking in mandate unless counterparty/lock-up risks are accepted. |
Silver (allocated) | 8% | Allocated bars; COMEX 5,000-oz futures (SI) | Higher beta to monetary regime; store allocated; futures for tactical adds. |
Broad Commodities (futures) | 15% | WTI/Brent (CL/COIL), Nat Gas (NG), Copper (HG), Aluminum (LME), Corn/Wheat (C, W) | Run a simple risk parity across contracts; roll calendars; cap single-commodity VaR; avoid excess energy beta if BTC/Gold vol is high. |
Inflation-Linked Bonds | 10% | U.S. TIPS 1–5y (CUSIPs direct), inflation swaps (zero-coupon breakevens) | Keep short duration real exposure; express breakevens via ZC swaps to isolate inflation vs. rates. |
FX Diversifiers | 5% | CHF, SGD, NOK (deliverable forwards or cash deposits) | Non-USD pockets tied to current-account strength/terms of trade; ladder monthly forwards. |
Dry Powder (T-Bills) | 5% | 1–6m UST bills (CUSIPs direct) | Liquidity buffer for drawdowns; rotate into metals/crypto on rebalancing signals. |
Two alternates (tune to risk appetite)
Conservative (lower vol)
Gold 35%, TIPS 15%, BTC 10%, ETH 3%, Silver 5%, Commodities 15%, FX 7%, Bills 10%
High-Octane (max convexity)
Gold 25%, BTC 30%, ETH 12%, Silver 10%, Commodities 15%, TIPS 5%, FX 3%, Bills 0%
Guardrails & Playbook
Rebalance: Quarterly, with bands (±20% of sleeve weight). If BTC/ETH blow out >+35% from target, trim to band; if gold/silver dip >−20%, add back to mid.
Risk caps: Max single-sleeve VaR 35% (crypto cluster); max gross futures margin 15% NAV.
Liquidity tiers:
Tier 1 (daily): BTC/ETH, gold/silver allocated (with same-day release), T-Bills.
Tier 2 (T+2): FX forwards, front-month futures.
Storage/Custody: Metals allocated/segregated; crypto multi-sig with written key policy; no rehypothecation.
Derivatives use: Only for exposure and hedging (no yield-selling overlays that cap upside).
Triggers & Scenarios
USD slides, real yields fall: Add to gold (to 35–40%) and BTC (+5 pts) using bills/FX sleeve.
Energy shock (sticky inflation): Keep commodities 15% but tilt within sleeve to WTI/NatGas/Copper; maintain TIPS.
Acute risk-off / USD spike: Resist de-risking gold; use FX sleeve to fund buys; consider short-dated CME BTC puts as crash insurance instead of selling core.
Policy pivot (QE-like, deficit unchanged): Lean long breakevens (add TIPS ZC swaps) and top up BTC/Gold 2–3 pts each.
Why this mix works (Debasement Math)
Gold (30%): highest hit-rate across fiscal/monetary regimes; low counterparty risk.
BTC/ETH (27%): convex, “outside” fiat; captures digital scarcity & network adoption.
Silver (8%): higher beta to monetary cycle, industrial kicker.
Commodities (15%): real-asset breadth; hedges supply-side inflation.
TIPS (10%): isolates inflation breakeven vs. nominal rate risk.
FX (5%): non-USD ballast with policy optionality.
Bills (5%): tactical ammo for forced-seller moments.
📈 Stock Corner
Today’s stock is Critical Metals (CRML)….
We continue to focus on the Trump Trade and what companies the US wants to take a stake in.
Word of caution from Clear Street…..
Regarding the Reuters article and speculation of the Trump Administration considering a stake deal in CRML, we remind investors that the U.S. government is considering several deals and might not select CRML and end any talks, which could cause CRML’s stock price to decline significantly.
Tuttle Capital Government Grift ETF (GRFT) is being censored again, still hoping to launch sometime soon, but not easy.
📬 In Case You Missed It
Why we do what we do….
🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help
ETFs: The Antidote to Wall Street
Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know
Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy
Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unleashed
Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2025 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.