I’ve been a trader and investor for 44 years. I left Wall Street long ago—-once I understood that their obsolete advice is designed to profit them, not you.
Today, my firm manages around $4 billion in ETFs, and I don’t answer to anybody. I tell the truth because trying to fool investors doesn’t help them, or me.
In Daily H.E.A.T. , I show you how to Hedge against disaster, find your Edge, exploit Asymmetric opportunities, and ride major Themes before Wall Street catches on.
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H.E.A.T.
For the past year, the market has treated U.S. EVs like a fad that flamed out. Headlines scream “demand collapse,” CEOs walk back timelines, and investors act like the whole category peaked in 2021. That’s exactly why this setup is getting interesting. EVs are still a tiny slice of what Americans actually drive (roughly ~2% of vehicles on the road), and even new-sales penetration is still early-stage. In other words: the market is trying to price “the end” of a story that barely started. The real issue isn’t that Americans tried EVs and hated them — it’s that the product lineup and price points have been mismatched to how people actually buy cars in the U.S. That’s starting to change. Today’s EV selection effectively “covers” only about a quarter of the U.S. market — but the next wave of launches expands that coverage meaningfully (think ~mid‑40% range). And here’s the punchline: once someone owns an EV, they tend to stick with it. EV “replacement loyalty” is running around ~74%, notably higher than hybrids. That’s not “buyer regret.” That’s “I’ll do it again… if you sell me the right one.”
The other underappreciated catalyst is that the “killer feature” for the next car cycle probably isn’t a faster 0–60 time — it’s time itself. Personal autonomy (hands‑free driving that actually works, agentic driving features, cars that behave like rolling software platforms) changes the value proposition. And that shift likely shows up first in vehicles built like computers on wheels — i.e., EV architectures that can support heavier compute, richer sensors, and continuous over‑the‑air upgrades. Add improving affordability (the auto affordability backdrop has been ugly, but it’s stabilizing), plus a visible pipeline of lower-priced, mainstream EVs, and you’ve got the ingredients for a “quiet” EV comeback that doesn’t announce itself until the tape forces everyone to notice. The market’s mistake is assuming the last 12 months are the next 10 years. This looks less like an EV funeral… and more like the awkward pause before the second act.
The practical trade: build a “comeback basket” and hedge the ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) hangover
Winners if the U.S. EV comeback thesis is right
These are the names most levered to (1) better product/segment coverage, (2) improving affordability, and (3) autonomy-as-a-feature, not a concept:
RIVN (Rivian) — The “mass market” moment. A smaller/midsize 5‑seat SUV at a more normal price point is exactly where U.S. volume lives. The key is that this isn’t trying to win on luxury — it’s trying to win on fit (segment + price + timing). If execution is decent, this becomes a real volume vehicle, not a niche flex.
TSLA (Tesla) — The autonomy call option. If autonomy/agentic driving starts to matter more than drivetrain debates, Tesla stays at the center of the conversation (and the multiple).
GM (General Motors) — Scale + platform leverage. If EV adoption resumes and the market starts rewarding manufacturers that can actually industrialize the transition, GM has the footprint to matter.
F (Ford) — The “affordable EV truck” angle. If the next cycle is about getting EVs into the heartland at a price people can stomach, an EV pickup strategy that doesn’t destroy margins is the ballgame.
Optional torque (higher risk): LCID (Lucid) — Not for the faint of heart, but if the market swings from “EVs are dead” to “EVs are back,” high‑beta EV equity tends to move violently.
Losers if EV penetration resumes (or if the market starts pricing that risk)
This is not about “they go to zero.” It’s about where the narrative risk shifts if EV adoption re-accelerates and the market starts discounting a slower ICE after-market and ICE-specific component demand.
ICE-heavy component suppliers (ICE-specific content risk):
GTX (Garrett Motion) — turbochargers (ICE intensity).
AXL (American Axle) / DAN (Dana) — driveline exposure with mixed transition narratives.
Might belong on the watchlist: BWA (BorgWarner) (they’re pivoting, but sentiment can still punish anything “ICE-adjacent” when the tape gets thematic).
ICE after-market “duration” names (long-cycle risk):
AZO (AutoZone), ORLY (O’Reilly)
These are great businesses, but EVs structurally change maintenance intensity over time. If investors start thinking “EV share is climbing again,” these can feel like the wrong kind of long-duration exposure.
A clean pair trade idea
If you want to express the theme without making a heroic call on the Nasdaq:
Long: RIVN + GM (product-cycle + scale/industrialization exposure)
Short (hedge leg): AZO or ORLY (ICE after-market duration) or GTX (ICE-specific content)
Why this works: you’re not betting the market goes up. You’re betting the EV narrative re-prices (from “dead” to “early innings”) and the market begins to tax ICE-duration again.
What to watch next (the “tell” that the market’s turning)
Affordable, mainstream launches landing on time (especially compact/midsize SUVs and pickups).
Evidence EV demand broadens geographically (not just coastal early adopters).
Autonomy shifting from demo to daily habit (not “cool video,” but “people actually use it”).
Price/affordability: when the EV purchase decision stops being “math doesn’t work” and starts being “which model fits.”
If those start lining up, the EV conversation changes fast — because it’s not about conviction… it’s about positioning. And right now, the “EV obituary” trade is crowded.
News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today
It’s going to be crazy until this war is actually over so yesterday didn’t disappoint. First we had the energy secretary tweet that a tanker had successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz. Oil tanked and the market ripped. Then he deleted the tweet, everything reversed. Then you heard that the Iranians are mining the Strait, and a nice up day turned into a down day. Good luck trying to figure out where we go from here.
Semi’s (SMH) pulled an undercut and rally at the 50 day……
Perhaps they are trying to rally them back. However, software (IGV) sold off, so could just be a simple snap back that doesn’t really lead to anything.
Oil should be your main watch, but after that I’d be watching semi’s and software. In a perfect world they are going up at the same time.
Then there was ORCL earnings last night….
Oracle’s print wasn’t about the “beat.” It was about the capex ceiling. After ramping spending from $8.5B → $12.0B → $18.7B over the first three quarters of FY26 (about $39.2B total), management kept full‑year capex at $50B. That math implies ~$10.8B in Q4 capex — a ~42% sequential drop from Q3. Investors cheered because Oracle is essentially admitting what the market has been whispering for weeks: the AI buildout can’t be “spend harder” forever when free cash flow is already deep in the red. The new bull case becomes simple: stop the bleeding, convert backlog into revenue, prove the returns.
The implication for the broader AI complex is bigger than Oracle. This is the first high-profile signal that the hyperscaler/AI capex arms race is running into balance-sheet reality. If others follow, the market’s next regime looks like: reward utilization + monetization, punish “infinite build.” Translation: hardware/infrastructure names priced for perpetual capex acceleration get their expectations reset, while “efficiency enablers” (anything that makes inference cheaper per token, per watt, per rack) gain relative appeal. Also watch the second-order knock-on: more scrutiny on contract quality and timing, potential pricing discipline in cloud, and a rotation toward companies that can grow without lighting cash on fire.
ORCL is currently up over 10% pre market (full disclosure we own it in MEMY)
A Stock I’m Watching
In keeping with the EV theme, today’s stock is Rivian (RIVN)……
Undercut and rally at the 200 day, the 10 day, and the 20 day. Did that before, and failed, but I do like this chart pattern. In an environment where I see a lot of names curling down, it’s nice to see something trying to move back up.
In Case You Missed It
The ETF Innovator Challenging Wall Street | Matt Tuttle on Themes, Crypto & the Future of Investing
The H.E.A.T. (Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry and Theme) Formula is designed to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth.
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