The H.E.A.T. Formula is a radically different way to look at investing your portfolio.

‍H- Hedges, you should always have hedges and be agnostic as to being long or short. Bonds are not a hedge

‍E-Edges, you should always look for edges. Preferably these are edges with some sort of psychological underpinning, structural edges, or some sort of barrier to entry.

‍A-Asymmetric. Everything you do, be it trades or your overall portfolio, should be designed so that heads you win a lot, tails you lose a little.

‍T-Themes. You should always be invested in the top themes. Most everything else is just noise.

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Rebel Finance Podcast

Episode 1

Market Recap

One of those momentum sell off days that happen every so often. WMT earnings, which raised some concern about consumers, didn’t help. We’ve talked a bit about what we think of the Fed and how they are now in a tough spot. Great quote out of Bessent yesterday……

Bessent also said that terming out the US debt was still a while away, which helped longer dated Treasuries. TLT actually doesn’t look too bad here…….

SPY Technical Analysis & Trade Plan – February 20, 2025

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed at 610.38 (+0.42%), holding near all-time highs but showing some short-term fatigue. While the bullish trend remains intact, the market is approaching key resistance levels, and traders should be cautious.

📊 Key Technical Indicators

📈 Trend Analysis:

• 10-day MA: 607.46 (Near-term support) ✅

• 20-day EMA: 605.10 (First major support) ✅

• 50-day MA: 598.94 (Stronger support, a key dip-buying level) ✅

• 200-day MA: 565.65 (Bull market safety net) ✅

💡 Takeaway: SPY is still in an uptrend, trading above all key moving averages. However, momentum is slowing, and a pullback to support levels is possible.

📉 Momentum Indicators Suggest Market Is Near a Short-Term Inflection Point

• RSI (4) = 57.88 – Neutral to slightly overbought

• Williams %R (14) = -45.89 – Neither oversold nor overbought

💡 Takeaway: No extreme signals, but if SPY rallies above 615, it may become overbought in the short term.

🎯 Bullish Case (If Market Holds Above 605)

• BUY: Dips near 605-607 (20-day EMA & 10-day MA support)

• STOP-LOSS: Close below 598 (50-day MA, bullish trend violation)

• TARGET: 615-620 (New highs, likely resistance)

💡 SPY is still in an uptrend. If it holds the 20-day EMA and volume remains strong, we could see a breakout toward 620.

📉 Bearish Case (If Market Breaks Below 598)

• SELL SHORT: If SPY closes below 598 (break of 50-day MA)

• STOP-LOSS: If it reclaims 605 (false breakdown trap)

• TARGET: 575-580 (Previous support from early Feb)

💡 A break below 598 could lead to a sharp correction—watch for heavy selling volume as confirmation.

🔍 Bottom Line: The Market Is at a Crossroads

📌 The trend remains bullish, but SPY is showing signs of exhaustion.📌 A pullback to 605-607 would be healthy—buy the dip if support holds.📌 If SPY loses 598, expect a sharper decline toward 575-580.

🚀 Final Verdict: Stay bullish, but don’t get greedy. This is a time for disciplined trading, not chasing breakouts blindly.

Palantir Stock Is Falling Again. 2 Things Spooking Investors.-Barron’s

We talked about PLTR yesterday, before we knew the CEO was selling stock. So I had GPT take another look today…

📊 The Hard Truth: PLTR Is Expensive AF

• It trades at 202x forward earnings.

• Its price-to-sales ratio is over 30x—even NVDA isn’t that stretched.

• Valuation is baked to perfection—ANY disappointment = pain.

🚨 Translation? PLTR is in “priced for perfection” mode. If revenue growth slows even slightly, the multiple compresses HARD.

📈 Why PLTR Might Still Rip Higher

1️⃣ PLTR Still Owns the AI-for-Government Market

• No real competition in its niche—high barriers to entry

• Commercial business growing—no longer 100% dependent on the DoD

2️⃣ If This Selloff Is a Knee-Jerk Reaction, the Bounce Could Be Huge

• Hedge funds may buy the dip as traders panic-sell

• Retail money still loves PLTR—FOMO can push it higher

🔥 My Take: Should You Buy the Dip?

🚀 If you’re long-term, this is a BUY, but scale in slowly.🔪 If you’re short-term, this might not be over—wait for $90-$95 before buying.

💰 Trade Plan:

• BUY ZONE: $90-$95 (heavy support area)

• STOP LOSS: If it breaks below $88, it could freefall to $75-$80

• TARGET: $120+ if momentum returns

📊 Final Rating on PLTR Right Now

• Short-Term (Next 1-2 Months): 6.5/10 (Still fragile, could drop more)

• Long-Term (12+ Months): 8/10 (Still a winner, but patience required)

• Potential to Double in 12-18 Months? 5/10 (Too stretched for a 2x from here in under two years)

🔥 FINAL VERDICT: Long-term believers can buy this dip, but don’t be reckless. Traders—wait for $90-$95.

10 stocks of defense contractors that might withstand Trump and Hegseth’s cuts-MarketWatch

I had GPT rate these stocks, then give me the ones rated over 7 and provide a trade plan…..

This news may also have a positive impact on the defense stocks today…

Hang Seng enjoys best day since October. UBS says Chinese tech trades at 34% discount to Magnificent Seven-MarketWatch

We’ve been on this ever since the DeepSeek news. IMHO I would wait for some sort of pullback, Chinese stocks like to do that. GPT agrees with the assessment……

UBS strategists have highlighted that Chinese technology giants—specifically Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi—are trading at a 34% discount compared to the U.S. "Magnificent Seven" tech companies. This valuation gap suggests potential upside for investors considering Chinese tech stocks.

Current Valuations of Key Chinese Tech Stocks:

• Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA): Trading at $135.97.

• Baidu Inc (BIDU): Trading at $89.65.

• JD.com Inc (JD): Trading at $41.19.

• PDD Holdings Inc (PDD): Trading at $124.41.

• Bilibili Inc (BILI): Trading at $22.11.

These valuations remain attractive, especially considering recent positive developments:

• Investor Confidence: Billionaire investor Ryan Cohen has increased his stake in Alibaba to approximately $1 billion, indicating strong belief in the company's long-term prospects.wsj.com

• Market Resurgence: The Hang Seng Index recently experienced its best day since October, with significant contributions from tech giants like Alibaba, Tencent, and SMIC.ft.com

Given these factors, I concur with UBS's assessment. The combination of attractive valuations, renewed investor interest, and positive market momentum suggests that Chinese tech stocks listed in the U.S. are currently not overextended in price and may offer compelling investment opportunities.

BIDU and JD are the only ones on my radar screen that aren’t really extended, I own BIDU…..

Ormat Technologies Inc | BUY (HOLD) Power Stock Trading at a Discount? Upgrade to Buy on the Disconnect, PT to $78

Jefferies just upgraded one of my holdings. I bought this a bit ago thinking that geothermal would be a source for data center power, it hasn’t quite worked out…..

I had GPT take a look at the Jefferies report and it agrees that ORA is a Buy down here….

🔍 ORA Rating: 7.5/10

📊 Current Upside Based on Analyst Targets: +26%🔥 Potential if AI Data Centers Move to Geothermal: 100%+⚠️ Risk: If AI ignores geothermal, ORA is a slow-growth power play.

💡 What’s the move?

• BUY if you believe AI data centers will need geothermal power.

• HOLD if you want stable, growing renewable energy exposure.

• WAIT for a confirmed AI power deal to load up aggressively.

🚀 Final Take: ORA is a sneaky AI play disguised as a utility stock. If AI power demand shifts to geothermal, ORA could be the biggest under-the-radar winner.

The Case for Buying High-Yield Bonds Now-Barron’s

Not a fan, these are not an asymmetrical trade IMHO. Also, the time to buy was August…..

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