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The H.E.A.T. Formula is a radically different way to look at investing your portfolio.

‍H- Hedges, you should always have hedges and be agnostic as to being long or short. Bonds are not a hedge

‍E-Edges, you should always look for edges. Preferably these are edges with some sort of psychological underpinning, structural edges, or some sort of barrier to entry.

‍A-Asymmetric. Everything you do, be it trades or your overall portfolio, should be designed so that heads you win a lot, tails you lose a little.

‍T-Themes. You should always be invested in the top themes. Most everything else is just noise.

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Rebel Finance Podcast

Episode 1

Market Recap

Yesterday highlighted once again the difficulty of trading this market as a rally attempt was crushed by tariff talk. A reporter was asking me for Trump stocks the other day and outside of DJT I struggled to name any. Then it dawned on me, TLT. The one thing we know for sure is that Trump wants lower interest rates. TLT looks to be down nicely pre market, I will probably be adding to my position if it stays here.

NVDA earnings were the event, or non event, of the day yesterday. No surprise they were extraordinary, but not extraordinary enough. NVDA is flattish at the moment, but the rest of the market is rallying, possibly in relief. As a provider of leveraged ETFs I often gets asked about the use case, especially when traders wanting leverage can just trade options. NVDA is a good example, the options were pricing in something like a 10% move, so unless something changes the implied volatility will drop a ton and option traders will have some nice paper losses regardless of what direction they chose.

I’ve opined that the Magnificent 7 stocks may not be overvalued and presented reasons they can continue to rally. Longer term I believe that to be true, shorter term I’m starting to get a bit concerned. AAPL is teetering on it’s 50 day moving average, AMZN pierced it’s a few days ago, GOOGL broke it’s 200 day yesterday, MSFT broke it’s a few days ago, and TSLA is nearing its. NVDA had an undercut and rally at it’s 200 day and looks ok, however let’s see what happens when the market opens. META had an undercut and rally at it’s 50 day. I think caution is warranted here. If the market stays up I will probably add to hedges today. I will continue to get long exposure on names I want to own, but I have been doing more and more of my “long” exposure as cash secured puts.

Steve Cohen came out bearish the other day, now Paul Singer…

‘Stock markets today are just about as risky as I have ever seen’: Elliott’s Paul Singer gives rare interview-MarketWatch

Salesforce Shares Fall After Revenue Outlook Misses-WSJ

CRM is one of the main agentic AI names. It got an initial pop on DeepSeek and then retraced the move, and then some. I got out after the 50 day break but will look for a spot to get back in. Prefer an undercut and rally at the 200 day…..

GPTs take…..

🚀 Buy the Dip, But Size Position Wisely

• Short-Term: CRM may trade weak due to revenue guidance.

• Intermediate-Term: AI ramp (Agentforce) could drive reacceleration in late 2025.

• Long-Term: CRM still owns enterprise software—AI could be a game-changer.

📌 Investment Rating: Speculative Buy (Only for those willing to wait for AI adoption).

Amazon bets savings from automation can help fuel AI spending boom-FT

Physical AI is the next step. I asked GPT for winners and losers on this….

1️⃣ BUY Robotics AI Winners:✅ Symbotic ($SYM), Nvidia ($NVDA), UiPath ($PATH)→ Prime beneficiaries of Amazon’s AI-driven warehouse revolution.2️⃣ Monitor Amazon’s Robotics Expansion for M&A Opportunities:✅ Boston Dynamics (IPO Watchlist), Teradyne ($TER) – Universal Robots.3️⃣ Short / Avoid Legacy Logistics Stocks:❌ FedEx ($FDX), UPS ($UPS), JD Logistics ($2618.HK) could face margin pressure.

📌 Amazon’s move cements AI + robotics as a key investment theme.

SYM I would want to see it hold that $22 area, an undercut and rally at $21.78 would be ideal….

PATH is a messy chart, but could be buyable here, had an undercut and rally at $12.48….

Ormat Technologies Inc (ORA)

ORA is a name I have talked about in the past. They reported earnings last night and Jefferies reiterated their buy. Talk about data centers interested me the most in Jefferies report…..

The stock doesn’t trade pre market, so not sure what people thought about earnings until later, but don’t mind this chart right here…..

Deep Dive: INTU, WDAY, ZI – Must-Buy Stocks

One thing I do is put Wall Street research reports into GPT and ask if there is anything I should be aware of. Mostly looking for stocks in themes I like that I don’t own and don’t already have on my watchlist, or just interesting stocks I haven’t heard of. Yesterday, Stifel had an interesting note on some AI enterprise plays….

Why These Stocks Are Must-Buys

From Stifel’s report, three stocks stand out as high-conviction AI enterprise software plays:➡️ Intuit ($INTU) – Leading SMB automation & AI tax solutions.➡️ Workday ($WDAY) – AI-powered enterprise HR & CFO software.➡️ ZoomInfo ($ZI) – AI-driven sales intelligence & data analytics.

Why these three?

✅ They are integrating AI in a way that is driving real revenue growth.✅ Enterprise & SMB spending is accelerating in these categories.✅ All three are generating strong free cash flow and are not overvalued.✅ They each have a unique competitive moat in their respective spaces.

✅ Intuit ($INTU) → AI-powered SMB automation leader, tax season upside.✅ Workday ($WDAY) → AI-driven enterprise spend recovery, sentiment shift.✅ ZoomInfo ($ZI) → Turnaround story, AI-driven sales intelligence re-rating.

📌 INTU is the strongest buy due to accelerating revenue growth & AI-driven automation expansion.📌 WDAY is a close second, as AI adoption in enterprise HR is just beginning.📌 ZI is the highest-risk, highest-reward turnaround play.

I’m not a breakout guy, but INTU could be buyable here….

Same thing with WDAY…..

And same with ZI….

Before you go: Here are ways I can help

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