The 🔥H.E.A.T.🔥 Formula

AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio

March 06, 2025

3 New Launches Tuesday:

2X Long ARM (ARMU)

2x Long DJT (DJTU)

2x Long RBLX (RBLU)

The H.E.A.T. Formula is a radically different way to look at investing your portfolio.

‍H- Hedges, you should always have hedges and be agnostic as to being long or short. Bonds are not a hedge

‍E-Edges, you should always look for edges. Preferably these are edges with some sort of psychological underpinning, structural edges, or some sort of barrier to entry.

‍A-Asymmetric. Everything you do, be it trades or your overall portfolio, should be designed so that heads you win a lot, tails you lose a little.

‍T-Themes. You should always be invested in the top themes. Most everything else is just noise.

Our Next Webinar

The AI Investing Playbook For Toppy Markets: How to Find Hidden Opportunities and Hedge Risks in 2025

Thu, March 20, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EST

Rebel Finance Podcast-Episode 2 is Out

Episode 3 will live stream today from 11:30AM to 12:30PM EST at the link below

Market Recap

Sums it up perfectly. If you are a day trader then you can’t even get up to go the bathroom. Yesterday was up 1%ish, so far this morning it’s being reversed. I think this is the world we will have to live in for a while for the reasons I have highlighted the past couple of days, Trump 1 used the stock market as a scorecard, Trump 2 is not. Trump 2 is trying to bring down interest rates which hasn’t been working the past 2 days, and so far not working again today. TLT went from my favorite trade to possibly not being my favorite trade anymore. If nothing changes it will drop further below the 200 day today….

For stocks, Tuesday’s low has to hold. On SPY that’s $572.25. If it doesn’t then we look to the 200 day to save the market….

I think Mike O’Rourke said it pretty well in his daily note…

Investors who chase every Trump Administration headline will only wind up churning themselves in a tape that is likely to be flat to down

China…..

I continue to be long BABA and BIDU and looking for a spot to get back into GDS.

And Europe….

Continue to be “safe havens” from the tariff back and forth. Germany is also ramping on their fiscal spending plan……

As a dip buyer I have a hard time buying into a parabolic move, so I started a position in India yesterday instead…..

Couple of analyst calls caught my eye this morning. Deutsche Bank raised FCX to a buy with a $47 price target. I haven’t touched this name for a while as it has just gone straight down, but when it moves, it moves. Will keep an eye on it today, it peaked it’s head above the 50 day yesterday and could be buyable there with a tight stop…..

MRVL was raised to a buy at Loop Capital with a $110 price target. I own it already and it’s going to get smoked this morning on earnings, but at least the analysts aren’t piling on with downgrades after the fact (Summit Insights is cutting them to a hold)…

Looks to be some support around $75.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is back over $90k….

Speaking of BABA….

Grok 3’s analysis…..

Rating: 8/10

I rate BABA an 8 out of 10 for your portfolio. The AI-driven rally, supportive policy, and attractive valuation earn it high marks, but profitability questions and external risks prevent a perfect score. It’s a strong hold with tactical upside, fitting your thematic focus on transformative tech.

Other U.S.-Listed Stocks to Consider

The article’s focus on China’s AI boom highlights opportunities beyond BABA. Here are two U.S.-traded stocks that could be "must-owns" due to this trend:

  1. Baidu Inc. (BIDU)

    1. Why? Baidu, a leading Chinese AI player, benefits from the same AI frenzy and Beijing support. Its Ernie Bot and cloud business rival Alibaba’s offerings, and its focus on autonomous driving adds diversification. BIDU jumped recently on AI momentum, yet trades at a discount (e.g., ~10x forward earnings).

    2. BIDU’s lower valuation and AI upside make it a complementary holding to BABA, balancing your China tech exposure.

    3. Rating: 7/10 (strong potential, but narrower focus than BABA).

  2. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

    1. Why? NVIDIA’s GPUs power AI training globally, including China’s new models like QwQ-32B and DeepSeek’s R1. The article’s emphasis on efficient, high-performance AI suggests sustained demand for NVIDIA’s hardware, despite U.S. export curbs. NVDA’s dominance in AI infrastructure remains unmatched.

    2. NVDA offers indirect exposure to China’s AI boom without geopolitical baggage, aligning with your tech-forward strategy.

    3. Rating: 9/10 (premium valuation, but unrivaled AI hardware leadership).

Strategic Considerations

  • Portfolio Synergy: Holding BABA, BIDU, and NVDA creates a trifecta: BABA for China’s AI software/services, BIDU for undervalued AI growth, and NVDA for global AI hardware. This mix leverages the China AI trend while diversifying risk.

  • Timing: BABA and BIDU could see volatility post-rally—buy dips. NVDA’s momentum justifies a steady allocation, given its broader market resilience.

  • Watchlist: Monitor Tencent (TCEHY) and Prosus (PROSY), though their U.S. exposure is less direct. Prosus, up 6.3%, reflects Tencent’s AI gains via its stake.

Final Thoughts

Your BABA position is well-placed to ride China’s AI wave, bolstered by the QwQ-32B launch and policy tailwinds. I’d recommend holding firm, adding on dips, and complementing it with BIDU and NVDA for a robust AI portfolio.

Precarious spot for TSLA. Down this morning and sitting right under the 200 day and in danger of giving back all the election gains. 200 day is pivotal on the upside. On the downside I’d watch $242 ish and $238 ish….

GPT continues to like TSLA…..

Rating Tesla (TSLA):

Tesla is a high-quality, long-term holding despite the current headline-driven weakness. Political dynamics with Musk are noise compared to the transformational potential in AI and energy. Intermediate to long-term investors should consider accumulating the stock opportunistically around further weakness driven by short-term sentiment and uncertainty.

Maintain a close watch on Q1 deliveries data, but recognize that Tesla’s longer-term AI ambitions and growth prospects significantly outweigh near-term volatility.

Bottom Line: Hold in short-term volatility; accumulate on deeper pullbacks for a strong multi-year growth trajectory. Rating: 8/10 overall (Short-term cautious: 6, Intermediate-term attractive: 8, Long-term compelling: 9).

Speaking of MRVL….

Grok 3 still likes MRVL….

Outlook for MRVL

Short-Term Perspective

The 15% post-earnings drop appears to be an overreaction to the projected slowdown in sequential data-center growth. While Marvell’s fundamentals remain solid—evidenced by its earnings beat and positive guidance—the market’s punitive stance on AI stocks suggests near-term pressure may persist. Investors are punishing any perceived weakness, even if temporary, making the stock vulnerable to further declines if sentiment doesn’t improve.

Long-Term Perspective

Marvell’s strategic positioning in AI and data centers offers a compelling long-term case. The company’s 78% year-over-year data-center growth, new design wins, and hyperscaler relationships align it with high-growth trends in cloud and AI infrastructure. The forecasted 10% sequential growth, while slower, still reflects expansion, and the ramp-up of custom silicon programs could accelerate revenue in future quarters. Analysts’ expectations of 22.4% annual revenue growth and profitability within three years further bolster the bullish long-term view.

Investment Consideration

For long-term investors, the current selloff may present a buying opportunity, particularly if the stock price dips further. However, the volatility and high expectations in the AI sector necessitate caution. Monitoring Marvell’s execution on its guidance and its ability to mitigate customer concentration risks will be critical.

Rating: 7/10

I rate Marvell Technology Inc. a 7 out of 10. The company’s strong fundamentals, leadership in AI and data centers, and recent earnings beat are tempered by the expected near-term growth slowdown and the market’s harsh reaction. A score of 7 reflects a balanced view: significant upside potential with manageable risks, but not an immediate must-buy given the current uncertainty.

Conclusion

Marvell Technology Inc.’s stock decline despite beating expectations underscores Wall Street’s high bar for AI plays. While short-term headwinds—like the data-center growth slowdown and market volatility—warrant caution, the company’s long-term prospects in AI and custom silicon remain robust. For now, I’d recommend holding off on an immediate buy but keeping MRVL on the radar for a potential entry on further weakness, balancing its thematic appeal with the sector’s current risks.

Pulled an undercut and rally at the 50 day yesterday, could be buyable here if that holds…..

I had Grok 3 do an analysis of PLTR, I like to switch it up sometimes and GPT is going real slow this morning, Grok is not a fan…

Recommendation

Palantir presents a compelling yet cautious case. The 30% drop and analyst upgrade hint at a potential inflection point, supported by strong AI fundamentals, operational efficiency, and a stable government backbone. However, the “frothy” valuation, revenue shortfall, and volatility temper enthusiasm. For now, I recommend a hold stance:

  • Why Not Buy Now? The valuation remains stretched at 100x 2026 FCF, and the risk of further contraction looms if growth disappoints. Waiting for a clearer market signal (e.g., risk-on momentum or a deeper pullback) could improve the risk-reward profile.

  • When to Reconsider? If the stock dips further (e.g., 20-30% more) or market sentiment turns decisively bullish, PLTR could become a strong tactical buy.

Rating: 6/10

I rate PLTR a 6 out of 10. It’s not a screaming buy due to valuation and near-term risks, but it’s far from a sell given its long-term potential and recent stabilization. A score of 6 reflects balanced potential and caution—worthy of your watchlist, with an eye toward opportunistic entry.

Final Thoughts

Palantir is a high-conviction thematic play with real strengths, but timing is critical. I’d advise monitoring it closely to strike when the setup aligns.

I’m long NVO and love this chart…..

No position in HIMS, but if it holds the 50 day it could be buyable. Could short on a break but it’s already been cut in half….

Here is Grok 3’s take…

NVO

Novo Nordisk’s move is a strategic win in the short term. The 3.6% stock rise reflects market optimism about its ability to reclaim patients lost to compounders. While price competition poses a risk, Novo’s strong brand, operational efficiency, and leadership in the weight-loss drug market (projected to grow significantly) position it well for sustained growth.

HIMS

Hims faces a tough road ahead. The 4.3% stock drop underscores immediate investor concerns, and the shift to generic pills may not retain customers against Novo’s branded offering. However, Hims’ broader telehealth model provides a foundation for recovery if it can innovate swiftly.

Recommendations

  • Novo Nordisk (NVO): BuyNovo’s proactive strategy to protect its market share, coupled with its strong fundamentals, makes it a compelling investment. The stock’s upward movement post-announcement supports this view. While competition exists, NVO’s execution and market position outweigh the risks.

  • Hims & Hers Health (HIMS): HoldHims is under pressure, and its near-term outlook is cloudy. Investors should hold off on buying until the company demonstrates a viable plan to replace its lost revenue. Existing shareholders might wait for signs of recovery rather than selling at a low.

Ratings

  • Novo Nordisk (NVO): 8/10A strong strategic move and market leadership earn NVO a high rating, tempered slightly by competitive and pricing risks.

  • Hims & Hers Health (HIMS): 4/10Hims’ challenges warrant caution. Its telehealth platform offers potential, but the immediate revenue loss and lack of a clear counter-strategy limit its score.

Final Thoughts

Novo Nordisk’s discounted Wegovy offering is a smart play to recapture market share and bolster investor confidence, making NVO a solid pick in the weight-loss drug space. For Hims & Hers, this development is a significant setback, requiring rapid adaptation to maintain its growth story. Investors should favor NVO for its stability and upside, while approaching HIMS with caution until its next steps become clearer.

Before you go: Here are ways I can help

‍

  1. ETFs: We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes.

  2. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. I've built a wealth management firm and helped other advisors grow their practices through the use of substantially differentiated investment strategies. If you want to talk just send me an email at [email protected]

  3. Monthly investing webinars

  4. Rebel Finance Podcast

  5. Wealth Management-Coming SoonThe views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades.TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2025 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.