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The H.E.A.T. Formula
Quantum Race Heats Up: How SAP & Microsoft’s New Timelines Could Spark a Tech Gold Rush
The H.E.A.T. Formula is a radically different way to look at investing your portfolio.
H- Hedges, you should always have hedges and be agnostic as to being long or short. Bonds are not a hedge
E-Edges, you should always look for edges. Preferably these are edges with some sort of psychological underpinning, structural edges, or some sort of barrier to entry.
A-Asymmetric. Everything you do, be it trades or your overall portfolio, should be designed so that heads you win a lot, tails you lose a little.
T-Themes. You should always be invested in the top themes. Most everything else is just noise.
Our Next Webinar will be January 23,2025 at 2pm EST.
How to Make Money In Markets During 4 Years of Trump
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We are doing something new, we will be hosting The Watchlist every Thursday. Jeremy Vreeland (Bullish Bears) and I will be discussing stocks we are currently watching, buying, or shorting. We will also be discussing how to structure trades for asymmetrical returns and we will take your questions. Click below to register:
Just published an article on Seeking Alpha about using AI in trading, it's behind a paywall though unless you are a subscriber:
Going to be on the Schwab Network this morning at 9:45AM EST talking about stocks that should do well from the clean up in California
https://schwabnetwork.com/
A weaker than expected PPI got things going early, but the drag of higher rates dampened investor enthusiasm. The year over year reading was also the highest since February 2023.
Personally, when I saw equities ramping and rates not budging that was a signal to me to at least take some profits. This morning is CPI, so could be interesting again.
From Jefferies on rates this morning…
Market is looking for fresh catalyst for direction. Rates appear oversold and valuations look attractive. However, heavy supply continues and market is waiting for a catalyst for a move lower. The coming few days should provide a number of catalysts including the CPI data today, Bessent hearing tomorrow and Trump inauguration next week, which could very well turn out to be a buy the rumour sell the fact type of event. A number of investors I speak to feel that US 10Y yields could go towards 5% but is approaching levels where it makes sense to buy fixed income.
I don’t think any level makes sense to buy fixed income, unless it’s a trade. I’ve been long TLT/TMF through a short dated call credit spread on TLT to finance a call on TMF. Been wrong so far, but the credit spread has provided some support.
"There is a door which is opening with quantum computing," he said. "We see this absolutely."
The technology can have a potentially dramatic impact, Klein said.
With "scenarios which we are running on supply chains," what would "normally, today, take a week we now can do in an hour."
"There are a lot of things coming together," he said. "But time-wise, we can definitely believe that simulations you would run today in a week, you can probably bring down to an hour. Give this technology a few more years, probably we will talk hours or minutes at a certain point of time."
The quantum stocks were up big yesterday and are up big so far this morning.
Of course this doesn’t hurt……..
@jimcramer “Very typical quantum bounce giving you another exit point”
And this…..
“We are at the advent of the reliable quantum computing era. And we are right on the cusp of seeing quantum computers solve meaningful problems and capture new business value,” it said in a blog post. “As we look toward the next 12 months, the pace of quantum research and development is only going to accelerate, making this a critical and catalyzing time for business leaders to act.”
We think quantum has the potential to be as big, and maybe bigger than AI. Everyone knows the main players at this point and I have long dated options positions in all of them, and trade shorter dated positions from time to time. Here’s GPTs analysis…..
Pure-Play Quantum: IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave are the most direct (publicly listed) ways to invest in quantum hardware. They carry higher risk but possibly higher long-term upside.
Large Tech with Quantum Divisions: IBM, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Intel, and Honeywell each have quantum R&D, offering exposure with diversified risk.
Suppliers & Service Enablers: ASML, TSMC, Oxford Instruments, cryogenics, advanced materials makers, and professional services firms may benefit indirectly as quantum computing scales.
What I’m most interested is the second order in quantum, the companies that supply the main players. Unfortunately at the moment, many of them are private and for the public ones quantum is too small at the moment to make a dent. Keep an eye on this though, as quantum continues to develop the suppliers could bet more interesting.
A number of other brokerages have also recently issued reports on GEV. JPMorgan Chase & Co. upped their target price on shares of GE Vernova from $367.00 to $374.00 and gave the company an "overweight" rating in a report on Tuesday. Jefferies Financial Group upped their price objective on GE Vernova from $348.00 to $391.00 and gave the company a "buy" rating in a research note on Friday, December 13th. Wolfe Research started coverage on GE Vernova in a report on Wednesday, December 4th. They set an "outperform" rating and a $403.00 target price on the stock. Barclays raised their price target on GE Vernova from $320.00 to $420.00 and gave the company an "overweight" rating in a report on Thursday, December 5th. Finally, TD Cowen began coverage on shares of GE Vernova in a report on Thursday, December 5th. They issued a "buy" rating and a $400.00 price objective on the stock. Seven equities research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating, twenty have given a buy rating and one has assigned a strong buy rating to the company's stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the company has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus target price of $318.60.
If you wait for the analysts you will always be late to the game. I think this is a must own, but looks a bit extended here…
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JP Morgan had a note out this morning about two-thirds of actively managed equity funds underperforming their benchmarks. I don’t know how people can think there is still any alpha left in fundamental analysis when the some of the smartest people in the world can’t beat poorly designed benchmarks.
Asset allocation is the other investing “holy grail”. When I started out in the industry it was pitched as the only “free lunch” in investing. Not anymore, look at the returns of anything outside of US Large Cap Growth. Adding anything other than that to your portfolio hurt returns and added risk.
Going forward, we think the only source of alpha is going to be AI, and investors have only scratched the surface of what it can do and will do. We will be talking a lot more about it in our webinar next week.
For those of you looking to do an even deeper dive, Larry Connors does the best work on using AI in trading that I have seen…
The self defense industry, lethal and non lethal, is one of my favorite below the radar themes.
With December’s total finalized, the full-year 2024 total became clear and settled at over 15.2 million background checks for the sale of firearms at retail. As some media have noted, this yearly total is lower than last year’s 15.8 million and each year before since 2020 when COVID pandemic lockdowns, riots and looting were common and defund the police policies were taking hold. Americans surged to the firearm retail counter that year and purchased 21.1 million firearms. However, the 2024 total of 15.2 million is still comfortably a continuation of an upward trend line in firearm purchases seen since 2010 and before.
A stock like SWBI (holding in the GUNZ ETF) doesn’t look too bad here…..
This is something to keep an eye on…..
Some key players in both Trump’s world and Kennedy’s orbit think drastic action on vaccines would be a distraction and a political loser, people familiar with the matter said. Ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, Kennedy should instead focus on racking up wins in areas such as promoting healthy food and exercise, which some people advising the transition see as more politically palatable.
I’m short the vaccine stocks (PFE, MRNA, BNTX) because I think RFK is going to go after them, will Trump let him is question.
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