In Today’s Issue:

• The market continues to impress

• The world needs more copper

• VST deep dive

• ORCL deep dive

• and more……..

Bottom Line: Starting to trust this market a lot more, yesterday could have been bad, but the bulls stepped in. Still adding back equity exposure SLOWLY, I trust this market more, but I still don’t trust it.

Brendan Wood TopGun ETF (BWTG)…

Outperforms the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq...

Calm In The Tarrif Storm

April 25th 2025

 Despite severe tariff headwinds BWTG's global portfolio of TopGun* companies outperforms again. This time not for the 42% rate of return achieved in its first fair weather year but for its exceptional calm and resiliency in turbulent adverse markets. Even negative Morningstar ranked BWTG in its first percentile of performance year to date. The portfolio aims to compete more effectively for capital in good and bad times by selecting TopGun companies. Namely, those companies in highest demand by professional investors based upon their investment qualities. BWTG sticks to the Brendan Wood Worldwide Shareholder Network which informs its choice of TopGun investment targets.

*TopGun Companies are selected based upon +/- 2000 personal consultations with large cap global portfolio managers who rate 1400 big cap issuers against multiple investment quality criteria. The top scoring two percent are designated TopGuns.

YTD Rate of Return (Market Price) (Source Bloomberg):

BWTG =  +0.1% (As of April 15th)

DOW Jones = -4.75% (As of April 15th)

S&P 500  = -8.09% (As of April 15th)

Nasdaq = -12.84% (As of April 15th)

Next Webinar:

Tariffs, Inflation, and Recession: What To Do Now

5/22 2pm EST

News & Noise

🧠 News:

I think physical AI is going to be massive….

I often talk about how the biggest beneficiary of AI is likely to be biotech….

Essay from Ray…..

❌ Noise:

What Wall Street Is Saying

Stifel…..

Daniel Motoc, JP Morgan…..

Mike O’Rourke, Jones Trading…..

The Market Continues to Impress

Yesterday could have been ugly, just like last Monday, but it wasn’t. The bulls came in and SPY closed slightly positive, that’s now 5 days in a row. I will continue to reiterate what I have been saying, I think the lows are in and I think you should be SLOWLY adding back equity exposure. We are not out of the wood by any means, but one of my favorite sayings is trade based on what you see, not what you think.

A lot going on for a flat day, TSLA had it’s first insider buy since 2020. To manage expectations it was a million dollar buy from a multi-billionaire. Interesting move from the stock yesterday, it failed at the 200 day, which could have been a short sale, but it held the 50 day. I did sell some cash covered puts when it came off the bottom, but it has to get above the 200 day or it could end up being a short…..

NVDA continued to struggle, yesterday was the Huawei news. At some point this is a buy, I may wait for Mag 7 earnings though…..

Gold was up again yesterday, showing some weakness pre market…

I still think you should have exposure to gold, silver, and miners. However, I also realize this is the most crowded trade on Wall Street and don’t like the fact that Gold was just on the cover of Barron’s. I would only be adding on dips.

TLT was up again yesterday, facing some resistance at the 50 day. As long as the bond vigilantes stay quiet I continue to love this trade…..

Bitcoin continues to chug along as well. I think you need to have exposure to Bitcoin and the related stocks….

The World Needs More Copper

The T in the H.E.A.T. Formula stands for themes, I believe you should always be positioned in today, and tomorrow’s, hot themes. Anyone who has been to my webinars should know the thematic investing hierarchy. You want to first identify the themes, then identify the winners, but those are usually pretty obvious. The next step is identifying the suppliers to the winners. There are two main aspects of AI that are going to need copper, physical AI (robots) and power generation infrastructure. I did a piece on industrial metals a few weeks ago, got stopped out of them, and then got back in. This morning I had GPT take a deep dive on copper…..

Copper Deep Dive
Tapping the red metal’s bullish setup—from AI robots to grid upgrades—while watching USD and trade risks.

1. Supply Fundamentals

• Global Production & Reserves: World copper mine output hit 23 Mt in 2024, led by Chile (5.3 Mt), DRC (3.3 Mt) and Peru (2.6 Mt). Recoverable global reserves stand at ~1.0 billion t, with ~60% concentrated in Chile, Australia, Peru, Russia and the U.S. Nai500Metal News

• U.S. Import Dependence: The U.S. covers just over 50% of its refined copper needs from domestic smelters; the rest (~1 Mt/year) is imported mainly from Chile, Canada and Peru. A pending U.S. tariff probe adds geopolitical supply risk. Reuters

2. Demand Drivers

1. AI & Robotics: Morgan Stanley’s “Global Humanoid Model” projects 1 billion robots by 2050, requiring ~90 Mt of copper (90 kg/robot). That’s over 4× current annual output.

2. Electric Vehicles: With 17.1 million EVs sold in 2024, and ~83 kg of copper per vehicle, EVs alone added ~1.4 Mt of copper demand in 2024 Rho Motion.

3. Power & Digital Infrastructure:

   • Grid copper demand is set to more than double by 2040 in net-zero scenarios IEA.

   • Data-center electrification (AI/cloud) could lift copper use 6-fold by mid-century BHP.

4. Industrial & Construction: Equipment manufacturing drives ~38% of copper use, followed by construction/infrastructure at ~22% Reuters.

3. Market Dynamics & Technicals

• Price Action: Copper topped US$5.00/lb in May 2024 on supply fears, then retraced to ~US$4.65/lb as inventories steadied.

• Technical Signal: The COPX ETF held its 200-week MA, and a weekly MACD cross turned positive—supporting a tactical long entry.

4. Trade & Currency Impact

• USD Correlation: A weaker dollar (DXY down ~8% YTD) boosts copper priced in USD.

• Tariff Risk: The U.S. probe into copper imports could spur volatility in near-term flows and premiums Reuters.

5. Outlook & Forecasts

• Short-Term Balance: The refined market ran a small deficit of 87 kt in 2023, swung to a modest surplus in 2024, then faces structural deficits of ~820 kt by 2026 as new mine projects lag Metal NewsMINING.COM.

• Supply-Gap Warning: Trafigura forecasts a 4.5 Mt shortfall by 2030 without rapid project approvals and investment – a potential 35% demand gap Latest news & breaking headlines.

6. Winners & Losers

Bottom Line:
Copper sits at the nexus of AI, electrification and infrastructure; fundamental deficits loom even before factoring in the “Global Humanoid” surge. Technicals and a weaker USD further buoy the case. Pure-play miners (FCX, SCCO, COPX) top our list, while USD bulls and copper shorts rank near the bottom.

Deep Dive on VST

Going back to the thematic investment hierarchy, a stock like VST provides power for AI. I’ve been in and out a couple of times during this craziness, but am back in. Jeffries just came out with a buy….

I had GPT take a deep dive….

Jefferies’ Bullish Case

• Buy Rating, PT $145 ex–Data Centers: Jefferies maintains a Buy on VST even after trimming its 2027 EBITDA forecast to $7.15 billion (–2% vs. prior) and cutting its PT to $145 (from $151) to reflect mark-to-market power prices Investing.com.

• Data Center Optionality: No deals are yet announced, yet the share price has fallen 35% from the January high ($190), implying little to no data-center value is baked in. Comanche Peak co-location deals in Texas—enabled by Senate Bill 6—could unlock upside once regulatory clarity arrives.

• Power MTM & Hedges: ERCOT mark-to-market losses trim ~$650 million off 2027 EBITDA, but 40–45% of 2027 generation is hedged, cushioning EBITDA by ~$200 million NVIDIA Blog.

Financial & Valuation Highlights

• Cash Generation: VST forecasts $7 billion+ of extra cash through 2027 (after $2.2 bn growth capex, $800 mn net debt issuance, and $400 mn battery-storage insurance proceeds) NVIDIA Blog.

• Risk/Reward Skew: At ~11% FCF yield (ex-data centers and buybacks) vs. peers at ~7%, VST offers an attractive entry ahead of its first data-center announcement.

Near-Term Catalysts & Risks

• Catalysts:

  • Q1 results (May 7) confirming stronger-than-expected hedge performance.

  • Clarity on Comanche Peak data-center legislation/trade-off payments.

  • FERC or ERCOT rulings enabling co-location.

• Risks:

  • Further power-price softness beyond hedges.

  • Delay or regulatory block on data-center deals.

  • Leverage staying elevated if growth capex spikes.

Rating

• Vistra Energy (VST): 8/10

Bottom Line:
Vistra’s cash flow profile and data-center optionality justify a Buy, but given near-term power-price risk and regulatory execution, I’d average in—starting a position at current levels and adding on any pullbacks into the low-$120s.

Deep Dive on ORCL

ORCL is a stock I don’t currently own, I got stopped out somewhere in the last decline, but it’s on my watchlist as a potential future leader in AI. I do like the chart here, broken back above the 10 and 20 day. Only thing that gives me pause is it’s 20 points off the low.

I had GPT take a deep dive…..

Quick Take

Oracle is pivoting hard into AI-powered cloud services while still monetizing its massive on-premise software business. With thousands of NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs now live in OCI, Barclays believes Q4 revenue—and investor confidence—should get a meaningful boost.

Recent Financials

• Q3 FY25 Total Revenue: $14.1 B, +6% Y/Y (USD), +8% Y/Y (constant currency) Oracle Investor Relations

• Cloud Revenue (IaaS + SaaS): $6.2 B, +23% Y/Y Oracle Investor Relations

  • IaaS (OCI): $2.7 B, +49% Y/Y Oracle Investor Relations

  • Applications/SaaS: $3.6 B, +10% Y/Y Oracle Investor Relations

• Remaining Performance Obligations: $130 B backlog, +62% Y/Y Oracle Investor Relations

• Non-GAAP EPS: $1.47, +4% Y/Y Oracle Investor Relations

• Guidance: CEO Safra Catz sees ~15% revenue growth in FY26, driven by AI cloud deals Investopedia

AI Catalyst: NVIDIA Partnership

Oracle Cloud Infrastructure has “stood up and optimized its first wave of liquid-cooled NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 racks,” deploying thousands of Blackwell GPUs for large-scale training and inference. This makes OCI one of the earliest major clouds to offer Blackwell at scale—key for next-gen reasoning models and agentic AI NVIDIA Blog. Barclays notes that the GB200 rollout:

1. Drives revenue momentum from Q4 onward.

2. Demonstrates genuine tech parity with AWS and Azure.

Competitive Positioning

• Scale & Footprint: OCI remains #4 in cloud share but is the fastest-growing IaaS player at +49% Y/Y Oracle Investor Relations.

• Backlog Health: $130 B in RPOs gives 6–12 months of visibility.

• On-Prem + Cloud Hybrid: Exadata Cloud@Customer and multi-cloud Interconnect partnerships help retain legacy customers.

• Margins at Risk: Heavy CapEx to build AI-optimized data centers is crimping near-term margins; peers warn of pressure as Oracle scales Reuters.

Valuation & Risks

• Forward P/E: ~28× (12-month forward) vs. Microsoft ~32× and Amazon ~37× Reuters.

• Catalyst Watch: AI cloud adoption, Project Stargate with OpenAI, and continued RPO conversion.

• Key Risks: Fierce competition (AWS, Azure, GCP), execution on data center rollouts, and license-support growth deceleration.

Ratings

Bottom Line:
Oracle’s AI-cloud pivot is accelerating—thousands of Blackwell GPUs in OCI validate the thesis that it’s “not far behind” in the generative AI race. Q3 results show healthy growth and backlog, and guidance points to a meaningful revenue inflection. At ~28× forward earnings with visible catalysts, ORCL earns a 7/10 overall score, and its AI leadership chops also merit a 7/10.

You said:

would you buy the stock now?

ChatGPT said:

I’d be a conditional buyer of ORCL here, but I’d prefer to scale in rather than go all-in at $139.85. Here’s why:

• Valuation vs. Upside: At $139.85, Oracle trades at ~28× FY26 non-GAAP EPS, in line with peers but not cheap. Consensus 12-month price targets sit around $174.42 (≈25% upside) MarketBeat.

• Earnings Context: Q3 saw 6% Y/Y revenue growth ($14.1 B) and 23% Y/Y cloud growth—but it missed revenue/earnings estimates, denting the stock ~3% on the print Barron's Oracle Investor Relations.

• AI Catalyst: Early Blackwell GPU (GB200 NVL72) deployments in OCI are a real tech differentiator, but the market is already pricing in a big cap-ex ramp for data centers.

Buy Signals:

• A pullback into the $135–$130 area (Piper Sandler’s new $130 PT) would materially de-risk entry and boost your margin of safety Barron's.

• Confirmation of sustained >20% cloud/IaaS growth in Q4 would likely reignite momentum.

Wait For:

• Any guidance cut or further margin pressure commentary on the next call.

Bottom Line:
• Long-term hold? Yes—Oracle’s AI-cloud story merits a 7/10 conviction, but patience on price is key.
• Near-term trade? I’d accumulate on dips toward the low-$130s rather than buy outright at $140.
• Risk Level: Medium—strong catalysts but significant execution & cap-ex risks remain.

Before you go: Here are ways I can help

‍

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   The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2025 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.