- The H.E.A.T. Formula
- Posts
- The Market is Extended-What's Next?
The Market is Extended-What's Next?
The š„H.E.A.T.š„ Formula : AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio
Matthew Tuttle
May 14, 2025
In Todayās Issue:
The market is extended, whatās next?
Proposed IRA change winners and losers
and moreā¦ā¦..
Next Webinar:
Identifying and Profiting From the Top Themes in the Market
5/22 2pm EST
The Market is Extended, Whatās Next?
The market has now moved from oversold to overbought so expect some sort of selloff in the next couple of days. Barring any new bad news I wouldnāt expect it to be much, and it should be a buying opportunity.
The S&P and NASDAQ 100 are now slightly up for the year and the Dow is slightly down. The only thing getting crushed is small caps (Russell 2000). I have said it before and will say it again, the Russell 2000 is a crappy index. If you want to own small caps you are better off picking your own. IWM is purely a trading vehicle IMHO and not a buy and hold ETF.
Donāt disagree with Jefferies assessment hereā¦..
TACTICAL PAUSE VS STRATEGIC RESOLUTION: However, this agreement remains a tactical pause rather than a strategic resolution. The latest development in US-China trade relations represents a clear tactical easing, offering temporary relief to financial markets and corporate sentiment. However, the absence of a permanent, comprehensive framework implies continued volatility and policy risk still lies ahead. Hence Jef-X is exercising cautious optimism: improved near-term economic growth and market performance, tempered by persistent inflationary pressures, strategic frictions, and unresolved structural imbalances. Investors and corporates alike should maintain a flexible postureāleveraging the present relief while preparing for renewed volatility. The next 90 days will be pivotal in determining whether this is a bridge to normalization or merely a temporary truce in a protracted economic rivalry.
-Jefferies Daily Macro
I also donāt disagree about the Fedā¦..
FED PUT IN PLAY ALSO: The recalibrated tariff structure provides the Fed with more flexibility to adjust monetary policy more favourably for risk assets, as heightened risks to inflation from tariffs eases or at least is postponed. At the very least, the market willing be more cognizant of this elasticity.
-Jefferies Daily Macro
I am starting to eye TLT againā¦.
Would prefer an undercut and rally at the 8/11 lows, think that would be a more powerful signal, but the February low of 85.96 could work also. There is also this from UBS last night about CTAsā¦.
In credit, CTAs have already covered their shorts, and are about to initiate new longs. The recent tightening, coupled with the elevated carry, make short positions difficult to sustain.
Credit: bullish EU, neutral (but about to turn bullish) US
-UBS
This is another item that caught my attention from Jefferies this morningā¦
FOREIGNERS BUYING JAPAN: Overseas investors have been shifting US funds into Japan as part of the āde-dollarisationā trend and viewed Japan as a logical choice because of the size and relative stability of its markets. Last month, overseas investors were net buyers of Y8.2tn ($57bn) of Japanese securities- biggest monthly rush for Japanese assets since comparable records began in 2005 and was over 3 times higher than the 20-year average for April. The unprecedented buying spree by foreign investors involved $25.5bn net purchases of equities - biggest amount since April 2023, and $31.5bn of long-term bonds, the largest since July 2022.
-Jefferies Daily Macro
Japan actually looks like more of a short to me here, if it breaks below the 10 dayā¦
SPACs continue to be strong (full disclosure CLBR is the top holding in SPCX)ā¦
CEO and Chairman of $CLBR, Omeed Malik, met with @realDonaldTrump and the Saudi Arabian ruler yesterday in Riyadh.
For what purpose? Your guess is as good as mine. However, after the USA just announcing a $142B arms deal with the Saudis, so Iām sure guns were a topic. š
ā Mr. L (@Mr_L__1)
6:27 PM ā¢ May 13, 2025
While my favorite theme at the moment is Trump related stocks and asset classes, Nancy Pelosi still hasnāt lost her touchā¦.
BREAKING: Nancy Pelosi bought $TEM Tempus AI calls at $15.15 on Jan 14th, 2025.
She paid just over $75,000 for these contracts. $TEM is up 10% today, 100% on the year.
She is up millions.
You can only track her option positions exits in real time one place, Unusual Whales.
ā unusual_whales (@unusual_whales)
6:59 PM ā¢ May 13, 2025
Further proof that the āsmart moneyā isnāt so smartā¦
Dan Ives might be the most retarded CNBC contributor.
Bearish & dark times ahead for tech at $SPX 4850 ( the exact low ).
Bullish & best times ahead now at $SPX 5850.
ā blake (@blakestonks)
9:59 PM ā¢ May 12, 2025
andā¦.
For risky assets, this has been an unloved rally. Our positioning indices suggest that investors have been covering their shorts (mostly in the US) in the last few weeks, rather than benefiting from the rally. As we had argued before, investor sentiment was peak in bearishness for US assets about a month ago. Since then, most of the short positions have been covered, but investor position is still just close to neutral for US equities and only modestly long for Europe
I watch X and a bunch of discords, the investors I see are making bank.
Proposed IRA Changes Winners and Losers
Proposed IRA Modifications
House Republicansā draft reconciliation bill would:
End key consumer credits early ā the $7,500 EV credit would expire by year-end 2025 (rather than 2032), and the Section 25D residential solar/storage credit would sunset December 31, 2025 Reuterspv magazine USA.
Phase out ātech-neutralā clean-energy credits sooner ā the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and Production Tax Credit (PTC) would ratchet down to 80% in 2029, 60% in 2030, 40% in 2031 and zero in 2032 (vs. 2035 originally) Reuterspv magazine USA.
Eliminate credit transferability ā developers could no longer sell or swap unused credits for cash up front Reuters.
Trim hydrogen and advanced-manufacturing incentives ā the 45V hydrogen production credit would be curtailed ahead of schedule (specifics TBD by bill text) Reuters.
Potential Winners
Companies whose core economics hinge on lower-cost, on-site generation, or who can monetize domestic content/engineering work even as raw credits shrink:
Company (Ticker) | Why It Wins | Rating (1ā10) |
|---|---|---|
First Solar (FSLR) | Tightened āForeign Entity of Concernā rules favor U.S.-built panels; extended ITC for utility-scale projects under revised phase-out | 9/10 |
Sunrun (RUN) | Extended 25D through 2025 preserves near-term rooftop solar demand; pricing power as installers rush to beat deadline | 8/10 |
Array Tech (ARRY) | Short-term boost from ITC extension on trackers; later headwind from faster phase-out | 6/10 |
Quanta Services (PWR) | E&C contractor for grid upgrades, solar/wind buildsāwork shifts from raw tax credits to infrastructure spend | 7/10 |
MasTec (MTZ) | Similar to PWR: broader renewables construction backlog insulated from project-level credit timing | 7/10 |
Primoris (PRIM) | Renewable-linked engineering & construction; benefits from rush-in work before credit sunsets | 7/10 |
MYR Group (MYRG) | Grid-tie and interconnection services surge as developers rush projects under new timeframes | 7/10 |
Potential Losers
High-margin, credit-dependent manufacturers and large-cap utilities with heavy nuclear or hydrogen exposure:
Company (Ticker) | Why It Loses | Rating (1ā10) |
|---|---|---|
Enphase (ENPH) | Loss of 25D after 2025 cuts residential inverter demand steeply | 4/10 |
SolarEdge (SEDG) | Ditto: prolonged installer pull-forward leaves a post-2025 hangover | 4/10 |
Plug Power (PLUG) | Early hydrogen credit cutoff removes a key subsidy for green-Hā deployments | 3/10 |
NextEra Energy (NEE) | Earlier ITC/PTC phase-out and no transferability press utility-scale economics | 5/10 |
CMS Energy (CMS) | Renewables arm faces tighter timelines on project starts | 5/10 |
Xcel Energy (XEL) | Similar to CMS: mixed fossil/renewable mix blunts ability to soak up credits | 5/10 |
WEC Energy (WEC) | Utility developer with large renewables pipeline sees less cushion from bonus credits | 5/10 |
Constellation (CEG) | Zero-emission nuclear production credit (ā45Uā) slated to end | 4/10 |
PSEG (PEG) | Nuclear PTC phase-out risk; limited alternative green subsidies | 4/10 |
Duke Energy (DUK) | Similar nuclear headwinds; less upside from renewables | 4/10 |
Bottom Line
While headline credit values are slated to collapse faster, domestic manufacturing, engineering & construction firms, and legacy installers racing the 2025 deadlines emerge as biggest beneficiaries. By contrast, pure-play residential inverter/optimizer makers, high-margin hydrogen names, and nuclear-exposed utilities bear the brunt of accelerated phase-outs and lost transferability.
ā
Sources:
ā¢ Reuters: US House targets big climate, clean energy rollbacks in budget proposal Reuters
ā¢ Reuters: Transferability provision would be eliminated Reuters
ā¢ PV Magazine: Section 25D residential credit cut after 2025
How Did You Like Today's Newsletter |
Before you go: Here are ways I can help
ā
ETFs: We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes.
Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. I've built a wealth management firm and helped other advisors grow their practices through the use of substantially differentiated investment strategies. If you want to talk just send me an email at [email protected]
Monthly investing webinars
Rebel Finance Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap
Wealth Management-Coming Soon
Paid Newsletter Service-Coming Soon
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investorās financial situation.Ā© 2025 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.