When governments confront unknown threats in their airspace, defense budgets surge
and the same aerospace and surveillance companies move hardest. On March 2nd,
Northrop jumped 6% and Lockheed 3.3% on the Iran news — and President Trump has
since ordered the formal release of government UAP files, with the Pentagon confirming
compliance. So if a conventional conflict can move these stocks this fast, what happens
when the bigger story breaks?

See the UFOD holdings: thetruthisoutthereufod.com

Distributor: Foreside Fund Services | Investing involves risk including possible loss of principle.

A war escalates. Energy risk spikes. The world gets uglier by the hour.

And gold drops.

If you’re confused, good. That means you’re paying attention — and you’re not trapped in the “headline trade.”

Because here’s the uncomfortable truth most investors learn the hard way:

The first trade in a crisis is almost never the right trade.

Gold tends to spike before the event (anticipation + fear bids), and then sell off after (profit-taking + forced de-risking). That’s not gold “failing.” That’s markets doing what markets do.

In a real risk-off moment, investors don’t sell what they hate…
they sell what they can.

That means the most liquid stuff in the portfolio gets hit first — even if it’s the “right” hedge long-term.

Three mechanics usually drive the post-headline dip:

1) The dollar squeeze.
In stress, global capital often runs to USD. Since gold is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar can pressure gold in the short term — even if “gold in real terms” is doing its job.

2) The rate/real-yield reset.
When energy shocks flare, the market starts gaming out: “Higher oil → stickier inflation → fewer rate cuts.”
That lifts yields and raises the short-term opportunity cost of holding a zero-yield asset.

3) The liquidity / margin-call trade.
Funds de-gross. They reduce exposure. They raise cash.
Gold and miners get sold not because the thesis broke — but because they’re liquid, profitable, and easy to trim.

That’s the real explanation for the head-scratching tape.

Gold can be a “safe haven” and miners can still get wrecked — because miners trade like risk assets in the short run.

And right now, the market is punishing miners for one fear above all:

Oil.

Diesel is a meaningful input cost in mining. So when crude spikes, the knee-jerk reaction is: “Costs explode, margins collapse, sell the miners.”

But here’s where that narrative gets sloppy…

Even using rough industry rules of thumb, a big oil move typically translates into a much smaller move in all-in sustaining costs (AISC). The market tends to price miners as if every $10 move in oil vaporizes the business — when in reality, it usually compresses margins at the edges.

And at today’s elevated gold prices, many producers are still printing supernormal cash flow even if costs rise.

So the question isn’t “are costs going up?”
They are.

The question is: did the market already overprice that risk in two weeks of panic?

If gold holds its broader uptrend, miners don’t need perfection. They just need “less bad” cost reality — and a return of risk appetite when the tape stops feeling like a liquidation event.

Bucket 1: Core “sleep at night” exposure
If you want the thesis without operational blowups, stick to the cleaner vehicles:

Bucket 2: The torque trade (when the turn hits)
When miners snap back, they don’t jog — they gap:

Bucket 3: The silver kicker (if risk-on returns)
Silver is both monetary and industrial. It usually underperforms on fear… then overperforms in the rebound:

Let’s be honest about the risk. This setup fails if:

Gold didn’t “fail” this week.

The crowd just ran the same crisis script they always run:
Buy the fear… then sell the liquid winners to raise cash.

If you’re long-term bullish on gold, these miner flushes are the moments you’re supposed to act like a collector, not a chaser.

Because the easy money in this trade doesn’t come from buying gold when everyone is calm.

It comes from buying the miners when the world feels untradable — and the market is pricing diesel like it’s the end of the business.

MEMY Holdings Update:

We’ve sold UIPath (PATH) and added Pan American Silver (PAAS) (all 5% positions).

For a full list of MEMY holdings, visit:

https://incomeblastetfs.com/etf/memy

Distributor: Foreside Fund Services, LLC

Great way to start the morning, we go from massively red to massively green. Perhaps the most obvious trade ever was that the initial rally would be faded, which it was, but markets still closed up over 1%. So far this morning things look flat, but oil is up.

We’ve been focusing you on the 200 day moving average on the S&P 500, and yesterday’s action was somewhat bearish. The index attempted an undercut and rally that failed……

Here’s the big problem though. My investing framework is as follows:

I love charts, they tell you what the majority is doing. I may like a stock, but the chart will tell me when other people are liking it also. However, during a period like this you get massive selling of anything that isn’t nailed down, and then you get massive buying. You have no idea if a stock is selling off because investors don’t like it, or because investors need to raise cash. Same on the upside. So I say that because I am pointing out a bearish pattern in the S&P 500, but it could reverse in a moment from one tweet. Bottom line, make sure you have hedges in place.

If this rally does continue, I have some thoughts on covered call strategies…..

Today’s stock is Pan American Silver (PAAS)…..

No secret at this point that I like the precious metals here and this is one of my favorite silver miners. Looks to be trying to hold this $45 level. If it made a new low, or broke below the 200 day moving average, then it may change my thesis.

I had the pleasure of talking to Dividend Degenerates on why I like put spreads better than covered calls for income…..

The H.E.A.T. (Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry and Theme) Formula is designed to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2026 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.