I’ve been a trader and investor for 44 years. I left Wall Street long ago—-once I understood that their obsolete advice is designed to profit them, not you.
Today, my firm manages around $4 billion in ETFs, and I don’t answer to anybody. I tell the truth because trying to fool investors doesn’t help them, or me.
In Daily H.E.A.T. , I show you how to Hedge against disaster, find your Edge, exploit Asymmetric opportunities, and ride major Themes before Wall Street catches on.
Table of Contents
Gain Exposure To The Space Stack
And Seek Potential Weekly Income
SPCI seeks to offer concentrated, pure-play exposure across GPS, satellite manufacturing, and launch services.
By tracking the Syntax Space Industry Index (which tracks the performance of companies across the space economy), SPCI aims to cover the full breadth of the space economy — from orbital infrastructure to Earth observation.
With our overlay approach, your portfolio could potentially benefit from the theme today, not just in the distant future.
Explore the SPCI Fund.
Distributor: Foreside Fund Services | Investing involves risk including possible loss of principle.
H.E.A.T.
The Metal That Runs Everything Is Running Out — And Washington Just Woke Up
The AI boom isn't just a software story. It's a materials story. And the one material quietly sitting underneath all of it — grids, data centers, EVs, transformers, motors, wiring — has a supply problem that no one can fix this decade.
Wall Street loves clean stories. AI is a clean story. Chips, data centers, power, software — you can draw the value chain on one napkin, slap a multiple on it, and move on.
But the market is about to learn something uncomfortable: the AI boom doesn't just run on silicon. It runs on copper. And the world is running out of time to supply it.
The demand case is no longer speculation. A major analysis from S&P Global found that copper demand could nearly double by 2035 — and reach roughly 53 million metric tons by 2050. To put that in perspective: the amount of copper the world would need by mid-century is more than all the copper consumed between 1900 and 2021 combined. Over a century of industrial civilization — matched again in 25 years.
“The amount of copper required by 2050 would exceed all copper consumed from 1900 through 2021.” — S&P Global Commodity Insights |
But forget 2050 for a moment. Zoom in on the United States — because that’s where the market’s next emotional pivot is forming: national security + industrial policy + AI infrastructure. Three of the most politically charged phrases in Washington right now, all pointing at the same bottleneck.
Here’s the number that changes everything: according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the average mine development timeline in the U.S. runs approximately 29 years from discovery to production. And since 2002, only three major copper mines have come online in America.
Read that again. Three mines in over two decades — while AI, EVs, and grid modernization are all simultaneously pulling from the same shrinking pool.
This is not a commodity cycle. This is a supply system with a hard speed limit. And when a system has a hard speed limit, prices don’t mean-revert. They reset — because the market starts paying for scarcity and certainty, not just growth.
The part most investors still miss: if copper tightens, it doesn’t hit everyone equally. It creates two worlds. In one world, you own copper in the ground with operating leverage. In the other, you consume copper as an input and hope your contracts let you pass through the cost before your margins get shaved.
53M MT Annual demand projected by 2050 S&P Global Commodity Insights | ~2x Demand growth expected by 2035 S&P Global Commodity Insights | 29 yrs Avg. US mine development timeline S&P Global Market Intelligence | 3 Major US mines opened since 2002 S&P Global Market Intelligence |
Winners & Losers
✓ Winners | ✗ Pressure Points |
Core — Direct Producers | The risk isn't that these businesses fail — it's margin timing: fixed contracts, thin buffers, limited ability to reprice when copper spikes. |
Freeport-McMoRan FCX FCX The liquid bellwether. Copper beta, institutional sponsorship, direct leverage when the price moves. | General Motors GM GM EV ambitions are copper-intensive. No hedging program — input cost spikes compress already-thin EV margins. |
Southern Copper SCCO SCCO The low-cost machine. Long reserve life and margin stability — built for exactly this macro environment. | Rivian Automotive RIVN RIVN Burns cash already. An EV truck uses 2-3x the copper of a conventional vehicle. Pure cost exposure, no hedge. |
Growth — Adding Supply This Decade | First Solar FSLR FSLR Great backlogs become margin-challenged backlogs when input costs spike post-contract. |
Ivanhoe Mines IVPAF IVPAF Real projects, real growth. Tier-1 assets coming online now. One of the few companies actually growing production. | Prysmian Group PRYMY PRYMY Cable manufacturer dependent on copper feedstock. Vulnerable when spikes outrun contract repricing cycles. |
Diversified — Theme, No Single-Name Risk | NextEra Energy NEE NEE Massive grid expansion plans require enormous copper wiring. Feels the crunch on both the supply and demand side. |
Global X Copper Miners ETF COPX COPX Full sector exposure without betting on one CEO or jurisdiction. The right cautious sleeve. | Vistra Energy VST VST AI data center buildout is capital- and copper-intensive. Cost overruns on fixed-contract work are base case, not tail risk. |
Speculative — High-Octane, Size Accordingly |
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Copper Quest Exploration IMIMF IMIMF OTCQB-listed North American explorer. Highest torque on the Lassonde Curve — and commensurate risk. Not a retirement account play. |
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Imperial Metals IPMLF IPMLF Proximity to new BC discoveries has re-rated this name 490%+ in a year. Shows how fast adjacency moves a stock. |
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What Would Break This Thesis
What would break this thesis ∧ A global growth shock large enough to crater copper demand — the one scenario that bails out the bears every cycle. ∧ A faster-than-expected substitution wave: aluminum wiring, redesigned components, or new materials that reduce copper intensity before 2030. ∧ A genuine supply surprise — major new projects coming online years ahead of schedule. Less likely given documented lead times, but not impossible. ∧ Regulatory acceleration: a sustained U.S. permitting reform effort that structurally shortens the 29-year development timeline. Politically plausible; historically rare. |
Key Takeaways
01 | This is not a commodity cycle — it’s a supply system with a hard speed limit. When the average mine takes 29 years to develop and only three have opened in two decades, “more supply” isn’t a near-term answer. |
02 | AI is eating copper before it produces anything. Every data center being built to run AI inference requires massive copper wiring. Almost no one is pricing that connection yet. |
03 | Domestic supply is now a national security argument. North American copper projects have a political tailwind from both parties that foreign-sourced plays simply don’t carry. |
04 | Tier your exposure deliberately. FCX and SCCO for core beta. IVPAF for growth-with-substance. COPX if you want the theme without single-name risk. A small, sized-appropriately sleeve for discovery-stage names if you have the stomach. |
05 | You can’t fix a 29-year bottleneck with a good quarter. The timeline mismatch between demand acceleration and supply response is structural, not cyclical. That’s what makes this trade different. |
ETF News
MEMY Holdings Update:
We sold Micron (MU), Itron (ITRI), Iren (IREN) and Amkor (AMKR) and bought CRISPR (CRSP), Netflix (NFLX), Nucor (NUE) and Zoom (ZM). All 5% positions.
For a full list of MEMY holdings, visit:
https://incomeblastetfs.com/etf/memy
Distributor: Foreside Fund Services, LLC
News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today
No TACOs on the menu yesterday.
It’s pretty much impossible to keep up with the back and forth on the news. So far this morning futures are up a drop, but oil is also up as are rates.
On the tech side you have to keep your head on a swivel. One area I’ve really liked is memory, but Google’s release of TurboQuant could be a game changer (I smell a newsletter topic).
I was starting to like semiconductors, but yesterday was bad……
Software was relatively better, and some of the names I think have some AI insulation were actually green, but in the whole scheme of things not enough to make them investable yet…….
Biotech looks kind of interesting here, at least relatively…..
Keep an eye on the defense contractors. Obviously I like them for my Secret Gap theme, but we are going to have to restock after this war is over as well. Nothing actionable yet, but LMT could be a buy on an undercut and rally…..
Like I’ve talked about gold being the obvious war trade that wasn’t, defense contractors have sold off during the war. That could create some opportunities.
The areas I really think you want to be in are the metals, precious metals, agricultural commodities, coal, oil, gas, etc. Remember, the oil and fertilizer names are extended and could pull back hard if the war ends, that’s why my preference are the metals.
A Stock I’m Watching
Today’s stock is Nucor (NUE)……
It’s no secret that I like the metals and I think NUE is the best looking chart in the steel names. Undercut and rally at the 10 day moving average Wednesday and held it’s own in yesterday’s selloff.
In Case You Missed It
I had the pleasure of talking to Dividend Degenerates on why I like put spreads better than covered calls for income…..
The H.E.A.T. (Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry and Theme) Formula is designed to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth.
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