Wall Streetās 60/40 formula was born in 1952 ā the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since.
Thatās why we created a new approach ā The H.E.A.T. Formula ā to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth.
Table of Contents
š„ Hereās Whatās Happening Now
So yesterday I told you that CPI was going to be important. Core CPI came out somewhat hotter than expected and the market rallied (headline CPI was in line). The chatter is that people thought it would be worse.
Tariff impacts did not show up in the inflation numbers. Does that mean they arenāt going to or that they just havenāt filtered in yet? Thatās the million dollar question for the Fed.
The next question now is how much is the Fed going to cut when Core CPI is sitting at 3%?
Meanwhile, I think this is something that you should keep an eye onā¦.
$CAVA Cava shares down 22% after trimming its outlook, just like $SG Sweetgreen, and $CMG and Chipotle...same store sales deteriorated sharply
These consecutive fast food bowl dining misses simply should tell you something about the consumer and price elasticity.
Consumers
ā #Special Situations š Research Newsletter (Jay) (#@SpecialSitsNews)
7:43 AM ā¢ Aug 13, 2025
In keeping with our Trumpās Inner Circle theme, we want to invest in stocks and sectors that Trump and his administration favor. Hence we cover yesterdayās nuclear announcement below.
š§ The Nuke Race Is On: What DOEās āReactors by July ā26ā Pilot Means for Your Book
What changed
Per Barronās: the Department of Energy picked 11 advancedānuclear startāups (incl. Oklo (OKLO)) for a crash program to stand up at least three test reactors at U.S. national labs by July 4, 2026. Two Trump EOs push DOE/DOD demonstration pathways that shortcut the usual NRC timeline for pilots, with talk of easing radiationāemission standards. Translation: the policy overhang that has kept advanced nuclear in āsomedayā mode just flipped to now.
Macro link: this is happening as AI power demand, grid constraints, and hyperscaler PPAs hit escape velocity (youāve seen Metaās 1.1 GW nuclear PPA and the dataācenter capex guidance reacceleration). If small, modular, or microāreactors can be colocated with AI campusesāor simply sell baseload into those hubsāthis becomes a multiāyear rerating theme.
Firstāorder winners (direct exposure to advanced nuclear buildout)
Reactor developers / IP
OKLO (OKLO): Only public name in the DOE cohort; microāreactor, fastāspectrum design; early pathway with DOD/DOE demo sites. Highest torque, highest execution risk.
NuScale (SMR): Not in this pilot, but still the public SMR proxy. Funding/timeline stumbles make it high beta into any policy tailwind headline.
Fuel & fuel cycle (the real chokepoint)
Centrus Energy (LEU): Only commercial U.S. HALEU enricher; if pilots run on HALEU/TRISO, Centrus is the tollbooth.
BWX Technologies (BWXT): TRISO fuel capability + naval nuclear; also a likely fabricator/engineered systems supplier to several pilots.
Generation owners/nuclear fleets (PPAs & lifeāextension)
Constellation Energy (CEG): Largest U.S. nuclear fleet, already signing hyperscaler PPAs; prime beneficiary of nuclear-as-clean-baseload repricing.
Dominion (D), Duke (DUK), Southern (SO), Entergy (ETR): Fleet value, lifeāextension, and uprate optionality.
Prime EPC / labāsite partners
Jacobs (J) and KBR (KBR): Embedded at DOE sites; likely to wrap portions of design/construct/commission at national labs.
Fluor (FLR): EPC leverage to nuclear if/when execution risk normalizes.
Secondāorder winners (balanceāofāplant, grid, thermal, power electronics)
Grid buildāout & highāvoltage
Quanta Services (PWR), MYR Group (MYRG): Transmission construction as nuclear + data centers rewire load pockets.
Eaton (ETN), Powell Industries (POWL), Hubbell (HUBB): Switchgear, transformers, busway; lead times still tight.
GE Vernova (GEV), Siemens Energy (ENR), ABB (ABB): Turbine/generator sets, HVDC, protection relays.
Dataācenter power & thermal (nuclear adjacency via AI demand)
Vertiv (VRT): Power/thermal at hyperscaler sites; benefits whether reactors are onāsite or nearby.
Modine (MOD): Highādensity cooling hardware tied to GPU clusters (indirect beneficiary if nuclear alleviates power constraints).
Uranium mining & conversion (tight but more levered to big fleets than pilots)
Cameco (CCJ), NexGen (NXE), Energy Fuels (UUUU): Longācycle upside; pilots wonāt swing demand, but fleet lifeāextension/SMR scaleāup will.
Specialty valves, pumps, sensors
CurtissāWright (CW), Emerson (EMR), Flowserve (FLS): Nuclearāgrade actuation/flow control and monitoring.
Thirdāorder winners (ecosystem & enablement)
Nuclearāgrade materials & graphite: SGL Carbon (DE), Tokai Carbon (JP) for specialty graphite; niche but strategic.
Nonādestructive testing & integrity: Mistras (MG) for inspection regimes in new designs.
Waste handling & decommissioning: Mostly private (EnergySolutions), but Veolia (VEOEY) has relevant services.
Dataācenter REITs with power strategy: Digital Realty (DLR), Equinix (EQIX): benefit if nuclear PPAs deārisk campus power.
Why this matters (and why it could stick)
Policy acceleration: DOE/DOD demo lanes compress risk and timeātoāfirstākilowatt. Even if NRC rules ultimately govern commercial rollout, pilots create credibility + data.
Power scarcity premium: AI demand is pulling forward multiāGW capacity needs. Where wind/solar + transmission face siting and intermittency friction, compact baseload with tiny footprints can win RFPs.
Corporate PPAs: Tech buyers want 24/7 clean. Nuclear clears Scope 2 and uptime simultaneouslyāexpect more utility + hyperscaler nuclear PPAs and behindātheāmeter studies.
What to own (how weād build it)
Core basket (lower beta, high durability)
CEG, BWXT, ETN, PWR, VRT.
Weight this as your ānuclearāenabled AI powerā spine (60ā70% of your nuclear sleeve).
Torque basket (pilot optionality)
OKLO, LEU, SMR.
Size small (15ā25%) and treat as eventādriven: DOE site selections, HALEU contracts, module fabrication milestones, utility PPAs.
Grid + components kicker
POWL, HUBB, CW, EMR/FLS (pick one).
Remainder (10ā20%) for balanceāofāplant tightness and margin leverage.
Pair trades / hedges
Long CEG / BWXT vs. short broad EPC laggard if we see execution slippage headlines (use tactically).
Long VRT vs. DC REIT on powerātiming dislocations.
What to watch next (catalysts & telltales)
DOE lab site selections & MOU details (assume Idaho/ORNL/INL activity).
HALEU contracting: scale, pricing, and whether Centrus adds cascades; any TRISO awards to BWXT.
Utility IRPs explicitly adding SMRs/microāreactors or nuclear PPAs for dataācenter hubs.
State policy: siting fast lanes, SMRāfriendly statutes, PTC/ITC eligibility clarity for advanced nuclear.
Transformers/switchgear backlog: easing or tightening (POWL/HUBB commentary).
Hyperscaler signals: nuclear PPAs beyond Meta; language in MSFT/GOOGL/AMZN filings on āfirm cleanā procurement.
Key risks (and how to price them)
Regulatory snapback: Lawsuits or a future rules change could force pilots back to NRC lanes ā keep torque names sized small.
Fuel bottleneck: HALEU is the hard constraint; delays here push timelines right. LEU/BWXT help hedge this risk.
Supply chain & labor: Nuclearāgrade QA/QC, welders, inspectorsāexecution risk is real (we just saw how EPC execution can break theses).
Political durability: This is an executiveāled sprint. A policy turn could slowābut not eraseāutility PPA momentum if economics are proven.
Bottom line
The DOE pilot pulls advanced nuclear from āmaybe 2030sā into āprove it by 2026.ā For investors, the cleaner way to express the theme isnāt betting the winner among the 11 designsāitās owning the fuel/fabrication chokepoints, fleet/PPAs, and the grid/powerāelectronics stack that get paid whether the winner is fastāspectrum, molten salt, or microāmodular.
Playbook:
Stay core long CEG / BWXT / ETN / PWR / VRT, add LEU as the fuel tollbooth, and keep OKLO/SMR as small, eventādriven upside calls. Use earnings commentary from this group as your realātime truth serum on timelines and demand.
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Distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.
ā #Matthew Tuttle (#@TuttleCapital)
3:47 PM ā¢ Jul 9, 2025
š Stock Corner
Todayās stock is Ondas Holdings (ONDS)ā¦..
Been talking about drone stocks, and ONDS for a while. Yesterdayās podcast was on drones and we had a couple of interesting picks there in AXON and DRSHFā¦..
ONDS announced a secondary offering last night and is down 14% pre market. You hate to see it, but hard to blame them when their stock is up massively in a short period of time. Last time they did this it ended up being a great buying opportunity.
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