They take a red-hot story—AI, robotics, cybersecurity, “future of work,” whatever is lighting up CNBC—and slap it on an ETF. You buy it because you want targeted exposure to a theme you believe in.

But when you open the hood?

You don’t own a theme.
You own a junk drawer.

Here’s why: most ETFs are built to satisfy diversification requirements and to remain operationally scalable (liquidity, creation/redemption mechanics, index rules). Translation: they can’t just load up on 10 pure-play winners the way a human would. They’re often forced into owning dozens and dozens of names, including a long list of “kinda-sorta” exposures—companies that mention the theme on earnings calls, but don’t actually live or die by it.

So the “Robotics ETF” ends up owning:

And that’s the second problem: overlap.

If you already own any broad market ETF (SPY, VTI), any growth ETF, any tech ETF, and now you buy a “theme” ETF… you can quietly end up with the same mega-caps (NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL) showing up everywhere. Your portfolio feels diversified because it has more tickers… but in reality, you’re just multiplying exposure to the same handful of giants—often at the exact moment everyone else is doing it too.

That’s how investors wake up in a drawdown and discover the truth:

The sales pitch is always the same: “You get the theme… but diversified.”
Sounds responsible.

But in practice, many theme ETFs give you:

It’s like ordering a steak… and getting 10% steak and 90% salad—then being told you’re lucky because salad is “less risky.”

If you’re buying a sector or theme for outperformance, you don’t want “sort-of” exposure.

You want the businesses where:

In other words: pure plays… or close to pure plays.
That’s how themes actually pay.

You don’t need 80 holdings to play a trend. You need the right 8–15.

Here’s the simple framework:

Not investment advice—just a reality check Wall Street won’t put in the prospectus.

Quick question: did you see the follow‑up to the Obama aliens clip?

After saying “They’re real” in a speed‑round, he came back and clarified he’d seen no evidence of contact during his presidency.

It made me laugh because that’s exactly how markets work.

The facts are messy, the story is evolving, and serious people are suddenly forced to talk about something they’d rather joke about.

You don’t need to put a “Believe” poster in your office.

But when UAPs move from late‑night punchlines to presidents, central bankers, and defense bills, I treat it like any other potential information shock.

This is something that could potentially reshuffle winners and losers across defense, space, advanced materials, and energy.

If that’s a theme you’d rather be early than late, join me on Friday February 20 at 2pm EST for a live “Disclosure Day” briefing.

We’ll talk through what to watch next, how I’m thinking about “alien alpha” inside my H.E.A.T. framework, and how I’m using our UFO Disclosure ETF to express that theme.

Register now and secure your spot for the free live webinar.

SECURE MY SPOT: Disclosure Day: A Playbook For Investors If The Government Confirms It Has Alien Technology.​

MEMY rebalance: SNDK → AVGO

Still like memory, but it felt extended, and in a riskoff tape I wanted broader AI exposure.

AVGO keeps us in the AI buildout (custom silicon + networking + software cash flows) while reducing single theme concentration. #AI #Semis

Learn more: https://www.incomeblastetfs.com/etf/memy

Despite all the doom and gloom out there, markets continue to move up. Seeing some strength in consumer discretionary stocks, which I would ignore. Money rotates around from time to time, and this time it’s rotating hard. It’s coming out of anything that traders think AI is going to eat, and going into things it can’t, like airlines…..

I continue to think the average consumer is in lousy shape, and I’d rather pick up some of the names that were wrongly thrown out with the AI bathwater than I would buy an airline stock. Money is just moving into areas like airlines, restaurants, and casinos because AI isn’t going to impact them. That’s not an investment thesis IMHO. If you can find some consumer discretionary names successfully using AI to crush their competitors, that would be a different story.

Meanwhile, this is something to keep an eye on….

We’ve talked a lot about AI capex spending and the need for power, what we haven’t talked about is the impact on individuals and communities. This seems inflationary, which could put a dent in the Fed is going to bring interest rates down a ton this year theory.

This is one of the names that I think was unfairly sold off in the carnage around what AI is going to crush…..

Accenture (ACN) — ACN is a “picks-and-shovels” way to own the enterprise AI rollout without having to pick the winning model or application layer. The market’s AI debate has moved from “cool demos” to “show me the ROI,” and that’s exactly where ACN’s wheelhouse lives: modernizing data stacks, migrating/optimizing cloud, securing identities and workflows, redesigning processes, and then operating the environment as managed services. In an agentic-AI world, complexity doesn’t disappear — it migrates into orchestration, governance, compliance, and integration across messy legacy systems, and those are high-friction problems that large enterprises still outsource. The bull case is that AI expands ACN’s addressable work (more transformation + more ongoing run/operate) while reinforcing vendor stickiness through multi-year programs. The bear case is also clear: if AI compresses implementation effort (coding productivity, commoditized integration), pricing power and billable hours can come under pressure, and ACN’s demand can be cyclical if CIO budgets get cautious. Net: I like ACN as an “old economy benefiting from AI” compounder when the market wants measurable productivity and execution capability—but I’d watch bookings momentum, utilization/pricing, and whether GenAI-led projects translate into durable managed-services revenue (not just one-time consulting bursts).

Was on Bloomberg yesterday to talk a bit about my newsletter from Tuesday about what to own in software and what to avoid…..

Talking ETFs and a few investment ideas with Tony Dong…….

The H.E.A.T. (Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry and Theme) Formula is designed to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2025 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.