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Table of Contents
🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now
Mike Wilson is dressing up as Dan Ives and you are not worried?! 😳😵💫🌳
— #Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺🇦 (#@agnostoxxx)
3:27 PM • Jul 18, 2025
The market continues to be extended but the bears still can’t get any traction. I have a trend following model that I have spoken about before in the newsletter where I buy puts on ARKK.
It is far from triggering, but from time to time I will add protection just based on a sense that things are overextended. I did sell some calls on ARKK Friday. For the calls to be in the money, ARKK has to go up another 6% from here so my worst case scenario is I end up short ARKK 6% higher.
ARKK is currently 38% above it’s 100 day moving average, it’s only exceeded that once, briefly during July 2020.
I say all all the time, “trade based on what you see, not what you think”, and I see a market that wants higher. However, I sleep better at night with a bit of extra protection.
One of the biggest potential overhangs in the market is whether Trump is going to fire Powell. Looks like Bessent may have killed that idea….
Of course there is a rumor going around that Powell may resign at a speech he gives tomorrow. Seems doubtful, but even if not he could say something market moving.
Meanwhile, more of the same so far this morning, green all around and Ethereum looks like the big mover as crypto continues to ramp.
🚗 The Silent War for Lithium: Why We’re Running Out of the One Thing AI, EVs, and Drones Can’t Live Without
A couple of weeks ago I talked about Albemarle (ALB) in the newsletter……
As we reach all time highs I am looking for areas that haven’t participated and I came across lithium.
I do like this ALB chart…..
However, ALB also has a preferred issue….
Those familiar with my new version of the Permanent Portfolio know that preferred shares make up a part of the allocation. This could be a way to play the theme.
It looked to have bottomed and I suggested you could play it with the commons or the preferred. I chose the preferred mainly because I believe preferred shares should be part of your portfolio and my exposure is under where I want to be. I am currently up over 19% on it, making it the top performer in my preferred sleeve by far.
I used to love trading the main lithium stocks, but recently the futures have just stunk and I have gone elsewhere. If you look at a monthly chart of the Global X Lithium ETF (LIT) it has been more than cut in half since the end of 2021…..
The story above came out last week and may signal the bottom for lithium. Here are the catalysts as I see them….
Lithium is finally turning. After three years of surpluses, supply is tightening just as demand—especially from Chinese EVs and cathode restocking—rebounds. That’s a classic setup: green shoots emerging deep in a down cycle.
China’s clampdown is the spark. Reuters reports a major lithium miner, Zangge, was ordered to halt production—lifting prices to a 3-month high on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange . Watch for other mines to go off line.
Big producers are trimming output too. Albemarle and Pilbara have delayed expansions or cut production—shrinking global supply another notch.
Some other things to watch…..
Tariffs could flip the script. If U.S. enacts duties—like 95% on Chinese battery materials—this becomes an industrial bonanza for domestic lithium/cathode players (SLI, ABAT, ALB, WWR).
Chile’s politics matter. A pro-market shift post-election could unlock SQM’s full potential.
Chart signals sweeten the pot. SQM and LAC are technically at historic support zones—ideal setups for cyclical recoveries.
Why Lithium Matters
1. EV Batteries Depend on Lithium-Ion Chemistry
Nearly all modern electric vehicles use lithium-ion batteries because lithium is light, highly reactive, and stores massive amounts of energy per unit of weight.
No viable large-scale replacement currently exists—solid-state and sodium-ion chemistries are coming, but lithium is still core.
2. Energy Storage Infrastructure
The same batteries used in EVs are being deployed in grid storage systems (think Tesla’s Megapacks) to buffer renewable energy and provide stability to solar- and wind-powered grids.
As governments push to decarbonize power systems, lithium demand from utility-scale storage could rival that of EVs.
3. AI & Data Centers
AI and robotics rely on high-powered mobile systems and edge computing devices—many of which require lithium-ion batteries for decentralized operation (robotics, drones, autonomous vehicles).
Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot, for instance, will require massive energy density in a small, mobile form factor—again, lithium-based.
Supply-Demand Outlook
1. Demand Surge
BloombergNEF forecasts lithium demand could grow 4x by 2030.
EV adoption rates are accelerating globally: California, China, Europe, and India are mandating EV-only new car sales within 10–15 years.
2. Supply Constraints
Lithium mining and refining projects take 5–10 years to come online.
Global supply is concentrated in a few regions:
Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia (the “Lithium Triangle”)
Australia (hard rock mining)
China (domestic production + control of global processing capacity)
3. Structural Bottleneck: Refining
The real chokepoint isn’t just mining—it’s processing.
China currently controls over 70% of global lithium hydroxide and carbonate processing capacity.
Western nations are trying to onshore refining but are years behind.
4. Pricing Volatility
Lithium prices soared in 2021–2022, collapsed in 2023–early 2024 due to oversupply, but are stabilizing as demand ramps back up and new supply lags.
I had GPT create a watchlist with ratings……
Winners & Losers
1. SQM (Sociedad Química y Minera) – 🎯 Score: 9/10
Why it wins: Among the lowest-cost, largest producers. Diversified into iodine and fertilizers.
Tailwinds: Chile’s November elections lean pro-market—could ease royalties/regulation just when SQM is ready to expand.
Technicals: Monthly chart shows SQM bottoming at a long-term trendline, similar to 2015 & 2020 lows—ideal risk/reward setup.
2. LAC (Lithium Americas) – 8/10
Just put in a cyclical bottom pre-Chinese news. Dual catalysts ahead: restarted expansion plans + Chinese production halt.
Not as cheap as SQM, but momentum is building.
3. Albemarle (ALB) – 7/10
U.S. lone brine producer (Silver Peak, NV) + king’s-mountain restart funded by DoD.
U.S. producers stand to benefit hugely if China becomes more expensive to source from.
4. Standard Lithium (SLI) – 7/10
Acute U.S. brine-to-chemicals play with proven process tech and JVs (Lanxess, Equinor).
Gains pricing power if tariffs hit Chinese feedstocks.
5. ABAT – 6/10
North American claystone lithium + refining with federal priority.
Cases pending re: import duties, and its project sits on a fast-track federal permitting dashboard.
6. White Graphite (WWR) – 6/10
Anode producer building U.S. facility—ready to capitalize on any graphite tariffs on China.
Secondary play; less directly tied to lithium prices.
Eos Energy is another name that could benefit. It uses zinc based, American made battery technology and would likely be a top recipient of Federal funds if tariffs make Chinese lithium unaffordable or politically toxic.
The stock had a buyable gap up on Friday and could be bought here using Friday’s low as a stop…..
$BEGS offers tailored potential upside and strategic exposure to both crypto & precious metal asset classes with Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold and Silver — all in one ETF.
Consider adding BEGS to your portfolio: rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-crypto…
Distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.
— #Matthew Tuttle (#@TuttleCapital)
3:47 PM • Jul 9, 2025
📈 Stock Corner
Today’s stock is GrabAGun Digital (PEW), formally CLBR. This is the despac of the SPAC Don Jr. was involved in…….
Everyone, and that includes me, thought it would likely pop on symbol change day, it obviously didn’t. It’s now sitting at $10 and you have to figure the positioning around the symbol change is over, and those who had to, or wanted to, sell have done so.
Going forward, this still fits squarely into the Trump’s Inner Circle theme. Don Jr. is involved, and it’s one of Trump’s favored industries. I love the risk/reward here.
Will be interesting to watch. The demise of SPACs in 2022 saw many despacs move from $10 to under $2. If this one does that, then it will be a black eye for the SPAC market.
On the other hand, if it moves above $10, that’s a good sign. Premarket it’s below $10 but only 6500 shares traded.
📬 In Case You Missed It
“You don’t have a whole bunch of sports celebrities doing their own SPACs; A-Rod’s not here, Shaq’s not here,” said Matt Tuttle, chief executive of Tuttle Capital Management. Tuttle runs the SPAC and New Issue ETF SPCX , which invests in shares of SPACs — also known as blank-check companies — that have yet to complete a merger.
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