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Table of Contents
🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now
So my Stock Corner pick yesterday, PEW, sucked…….
I doubled up my option position. Averaging down is rarely a good idea, but I have a feeling that some of these issues are structural and this is squarely in my Trump’s Inner Circle theme.
One of those days when looking at the averages don’t tell the story. Momentum stocks sold off. When this market finally unravels that’s where it will start, but that doesn’t mean the market is going to unravel when you see momentum sell off. Just a normal rotation for now.
This was posted in one of the discords I follow, sums up yesterday pretty well…..
What is this red on my screen? Don't remember this, it’s been a few months
Interesting dichotomy between Ethereum and Bitcoin. More and more crypto does not equal just Bitcoin. That’s healthy for the crypto ecosystem.
⛏️ Coal’s Second Wind: The AI Boom Meets “Make Coal Great Again”
As I have talked about a lot, one of the key themes we are focused on is stuff Trump likes, and he often talks about his love for coal. The Trump administration’s aggressive reorientation of energy policy is bringing coal back into focus—not just as a political statement, but as a cornerstone of a new energy doctrine centered on AI-era reliability. With global demand rising and domestic policy winds shifting, coal—long written off—is positioning for a resurgence.
When ESG and climate change were the issues of the day, nobody cared about dirty coal. Now, when the biggest priority is powering AI, coal is one of the “all of the above” solutions.
🏛️ Policy Tailwinds: The Trump Doctrine on Coal
The recently passed reconciliation bill is a game-changer for the U.S. coal industry, featuring provisions that rival nuclear’s recent wave of subsidies:
Coal Generation Subsidies: Utilities running or restarting coal-fired plants—especially in high-load zones tied to data centers—are now directly subsidized.
Regulatory Rollbacks: Repeals of the Steam Electric Effluent Guidelines and cross-state emissions rules slash compliance costs, particularly benefiting thermal coal operators.
Dispatch Priority: Coal and nuclear are now prioritized by the DOE and FERC in grid dispatch for 24/7 baseload—a critical point as AI demand stresses the grid.
Production Incentives: Tax credits + accelerated depreciation on federal land. This boosts profitability and investment in long-life, high-yield mines.
Strategic Coal Reserve: The administration is building a domestic coal reserve—essentially treating coal like a national defense asset.
This isn’t just rhetoric. Trump, Kevin Hassett, and Energy Secretary Wright have each staked coal’s future to AI infrastructure. Their narrative: “Stable compute needs stable power.”
🌍 Macro Tailwind: China’s Stimulus = Global Coal Bid
On the global stage, rumors of China’s property stimulus have begun lifting industrial commodities—including coal. China is the world’s largest consumer of thermal and metallurgical coal, and any meaningful construction or manufacturing stimulus could catalyze:
Rebuilding coal stockpiles
Industrial demand (steel/metcoal)
Increased seaborne export volumes from U.S. terminals
Combined with U.S. export capacity, this makes companies with marine terminal access particularly compelling.
💥Stock Spotlight: CNR (Post-Merger of ARCH + CEIX)
Overview:
CNR (Coal & Natural Resources) is the largest diversified U.S. coal producer post-merger:
Thermal assets: Powder River Basin + Northern Appalachia
Met coal: High-grade output critical to steelmaking
Export-ready: Access to key terminals like Dominion Terminal and Curtis Bay
What Makes CNR Unique:
Factor | Advantage |
|---|---|
Size | Economies of scale, bargaining leverage |
Diversification | Met + thermal + export = balanced exposure |
Policy exposure | Maximally levered to new subsidies and dispatch rules |
Low cost structure | Thanks to regulatory rollbacks and legacy mine efficiency |
Valuation & Forward Outlook:
Earnings visibility improves under new policy framework
Capex cycle ends in 2025; free cash flow likely surges into 2026
Valuation: Currently trading at ~4.2x forward EBITDA, vs. peers at 5.5–6x—leaving room for re-rating
On a daily chart it’s been in a base (except for the liberation day selloff) since March, and now looks to be trying to break out……
On a monthly, you have an undercut and rally at the 50 day moving average (monthly)…..
📈 Other Coal Stocks to Watch (U.S.-Focused)
Ticker | Company | Focus | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
BTU | Peabody Energy | Thermal & Met | Legacy name, strong exports, but more debt |
HCC | Warrior Met Coal | Met coal | Pure-play metallurgical, high-margin, China-sensitive |
ARLP | Alliance Resource | Thermal + Royalty | High dividend yield, diversified revenue |
NRP | Natural Resource Partners | Royalty model | No operational exposure, pure play on volume/prices |
AMR | Alpha Metallurgical | Met coal | More levered to steel cycle than thermal rebound |
BTU is another favorite of mine. Similar daily pattern to CNR……
As I mentioned above, interesting to see Ethereum up so much with Bitcoin down. A lot of forces seem to be gathering for Eth. Good day for the precious metals yesterday as well, seems like investors want an alternative to fiat. Luckily someone put it all in one package……..
$BEGS offers tailored potential upside and strategic exposure to both crypto & precious metal asset classes with Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold and Silver — all in one ETF.
Consider adding BEGS to your portfolio: rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-crypto…
Distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.
— #Matthew Tuttle (#@TuttleCapital)
3:47 PM • Jul 9, 2025
📈 Stock Corner
Today’s stock is Franco Nevada (FNV)…….
Gold miners look to be trying to set up for another leg higher and would like to see this undercut and rally at the 10 day moving average.
FNV is a bit different in that it doesn’t actually mine for gold. It provides up front financing to miners in exchange for royalties and the right to buy a portion of the production at a fixed, below market, price.
This model could make it more resilient during downturns than miners who have fixed costs.
📬 In Case You Missed It
🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help
ETFs: The Antidote to Wall Street
Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know
Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy
Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled
Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge
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