I’ve been a trader and investor for 44 years. I left Wall Street long ago—-once I understood that their obsolete advice is designed to profit them, not you.
Today, my firm manages around $5 billion in ETFs, and I don’t answer to anybody. I tell the truth because trying to fool investors doesn’t help them, or me.
In Daily H.E.A.T. , I show you how to Hedge against disaster, find your Edge, exploit Asymmetric opportunities, and ride major Themes before Wall Street catches on.
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Table of Contents
H.E.A.T.
Under Trump, you need to be paying attention to government policies more than ever before for clues on what themes to be in. That’s why the announcement of a critical minerals expansion caught my eye. I also believe that precious metals are a theme that needs to be in your portfolio. I don’t look at precious metals as a hedge, as many people do, but it can sometimes be a hedge (remember for me to call something a hedge it has to work every time, not just sometimes). So silver making the list also caught my eye. Silver (SLV) has come down along with gold, but it’s at an interesting spot here, holding the 10 day EMA and right above the 50 day……
The Silver Signal: Why America’s Critical Minerals Expansion Could Reshape AI, Energy, and Inflation
The administration’s critical-minerals strategy just took a major turn — and it may have ripple effects far beyond mining stocks. The U.S. Department of the Interior added copper, silver, and metallurgical coal to its official list of “critical minerals,” a designation that determines which resources qualify for national-security protection, future tariffs, and federal investment. It’s a clear sign that Washington is tightening its grip on the building blocks of both the energy transition and the AI infrastructure boom.
The additions are telling:
Copper is the metal of electrification — essential for wiring, grid expansion, and EVs. With global demand expected to rise 50% by 2035, copper shortages could become a structural inflation driver. This inclusion opens the door for new U.S. mining incentives, streamlined permitting, and, potentially, Section 232 tariffs to reduce import dependency.
Silver is the surprise wildcard. The U.S. imports two-thirds of its silver, used across solar panels, semiconductors, and electronics — the hardware backbone of AI. Tariff inclusion here would be a seismic event, given silver’s price just hit all-time highs above $50/oz. Inventory buildup in New York and shortages in London suggest traders are already hedging against policy uncertainty.
Met coal and boron round out the industrial base — less flashy, but critical for steelmaking, construction, and even advanced battery chemistry.
The bigger takeaway: the “critical minerals” framework is becoming a de facto industrial policy map. Inclusion signals federal support for domestic production, DOE funding eligibility, and potential protectionism via tariffs or tax incentives. Expect this move to drive capital toward U.S. copper and silver producers (FCX, SCCO, HL, PAAS, AG) and advanced recyclers. It also strengthens the bull case for grid and renewable developers — ETN, PWR, NXT, FSLR — since copper and silver are literally the conductive arteries of both solar and AI power infrastructure.
Longer term, the new list ties together three dominant themes: energy security, AI infrastructure, and inflation hedging. Washington just confirmed what the market already knows — the next leg of the commodities supercycle won’t be led by oil, but by metals that make electrons move faster.
Bottom line: America’s “critical minerals” expansion is more than a list — it’s a blueprint for the next decade of capital flows. For investors, follow the metals that connect megatrends: copper for the grid, silver for solar and chips, and lithium for storage. The geopolitical tailwind is now officially policy.
News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today
The AI Hangover Begins?
The market sold off again yesterday, and this time the weakness wasn’t just about rates or geopolitics — it was about credibility. OpenAI’s CFO Sarah Friar managed to ignite a new round of skepticism across Wall Street by openly floating the idea of a government “backstop” for AI infrastructure spending. In plain English, she suggested that Washington might one day guarantee OpenAI’s debt to fund its trillion-dollar compute ambitions. The optics were terrible — a private, for-profit company asking for quasi-bailout guarantees — and the backlash was immediate. While Friar later “clarified” her comments, the damage was done. The idea that AI’s poster child might need government guarantees just to keep spending has shaken faith in the sustainability of the entire AI capex cycle. For months, investors have been willing to look past OpenAI’s nonexistent profits because it was seen as the engine powering Microsoft, Nvidia, and the broader AI economy. Now, the perception has shifted from “revolutionary” to “reckless.”
At the same time, we’re seeing the first cracks in AI stock sentiment. Palantir beat on earnings and posted 63% revenue growth — yet fell 8%. AMD hit record sales and guided to 25% growth next quarter — but dropped 7%. Even Nvidia, the market’s lodestar, slipped despite yet another run of bullish headlines. This isn’t about fundamentals — it’s about expectations. When valuations are this stretched, “beating” isn’t enough; investors want acceleration. The commentary from Palantir’s CEO, accusing short-sellers of “manipulation,” only adds to the froth narrative. We’ve entered the phase of the cycle where AI executives are getting defensive, and markets are starting to separate hype from cash flow.
Takeaways for investors:
AI fatigue is real. The market is starting to demand proof of profitability, not just scale. Focus on companies that are converting AI spending into recurring cash flow — not those reliant on perpetual financing or subsidies.
Government support ≠ stability. OpenAI’s backstop idea shows how capital-intensive the AI arms race has become. Any hint of government underwriting raises moral hazard questions that could spook capital markets.
Leadership rotation likely. With AI mega-caps pausing and smaller “pretenders” getting punished, expect near-term rotation into defensive infrastructure — power, utilities, and balance-sheet strength over growth narratives.
Reality check incoming. Just like the dot-com era, the winners (MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA) will survive, but the rest may not. Stick with names that have unit economics and infrastructure leverage, not just hype exposure.
Bottom line: AI’s fundamentals remain powerful, but the story just shifted from euphoria to accountability. Markets are realizing that building a trillion-dollar AI empire isn’t just about chips — it’s about who can fund, power, and sustain it when optimism fades.
A Stock I’m Watching
Today’s stock is Churchill Capital Corp X (CCCX)….
I’ve talked about this name before, it’s a SPAC that will eventually become quantum company INFQ. It currently has an NAV floor, however, at 17 and change that doesn’t help much. Once the merger is completed then a whole bunch of other investors will be able to come in.
How Else I Can Help You Beat Wall Street at Its Own Game
Inside H.E.A.T. is our monthly webinar series, sign up for this month’s webinar below….
Why Covered Call ETFs Suck-And What To Do Instead
Friday November 14, 2-3PM EST |
Covered call ETFs are everywhere — and everyone thinks they’ve found a “safe” way to collect yield in a sideways market. |
The truth? |
They cap your upside, mislead investors with “yield” that’s really your own money coming back, and often trail just owning the stock by a mile. |
Join me for a brutally honest breakdown of how these funds actually work — and what you should be doing instead. |
What You’ll Learn:
🔥 Why “high yield” covered call ETFs are often just returning your own capital |
The H.E.A.T. (Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry and Theme) Formula is designed to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth.
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