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THE GOSPEL

Turn on financial TV and you will hear the same explanation for higher oil and gas: war, drones, shipping lanes, sanctions, OPEC headlines.

That story is not wrong. It is just small.

Because the real energy story of this decade did not start with a missile. It started with a spreadsheet.

When oil crashed in 2014, the world made a collective decision: hydrocarbons were yesterday's problem. Capital spending got cut. Big projects got canceled. Decline rates did what decline rates always do. And the energy industry — quietly, systematically — stopped building the excess capacity that keeps prices calm.

Then three things happened at once. Demand did not die — it shifted. Europe permanently rewired its gas supply chain after discovering it had handed control of its energy to a single hostile supplier. And AI arrived with an appetite that does not care about weather, weekends, or off-peak. Data centers do not run on vibes. They run on electrons. And the grid answers with molecules.

That is why the war is the headline. But it is not the thesis.

"Once a 20-year take-or-pay contract is signed, the war can end — and the cash flow keeps showing up anyway."

THE CRACK IN THE GOSPEL

The market's favorite mistake is treating energy as a wartime trade. The logic goes: war ends, premium fades, oil collapses, trade is over. Rotate back to tech. Wait for the next crisis.

That logic fails for three reasons.

First: supply is slow.

You cannot fix a decade of underbuilding with a few months of drill-baby-drill. The world's meaningful new supply comes from projects with multi-year timelines. The calendar controls the next few years of supply, not political sentiment. No executive order changes the physics of reservoir development.

Second: LNG is not a trade. It is an infrastructure regime change.

Once a buyer signs a long-term take-or-pay LNG contract, they are not trading gas. They are buying energy security. Those contracts do not get canceled because headlines improve for a quarter. The cash flows are locked. The infrastructure gets built. The volumes move regardless of what the futures market is doing on a given Tuesday.

Third: demand is being hardened.

AI, reindustrialization, and electrification are making energy consumption less optional. It does not matter whether you like hydrocarbons philosophically. If you are trying to keep factories running and data centers online, you consume what is available, reliable, and dispatchable. And for the foreseeable future, that means gas.

THE MECHANISM

Here is the part most investors miss. The best energy opportunities in this cycle are not the companies that need $90 oil. They are the companies that get paid when molecules move — regardless of whether crude is at $70 or $100.

Think of the market in three layers, each with a different risk and return profile.

Layer 1: The Contracted Toll Roads

LNG exporters are the cleanest way to own the structural gas story because their revenue is increasingly contract-shaped, not spot-shaped. The customer is typically investment-grade. The agreement is typically long-dated. The product is geopolitical security, not a commodity. When you are trying to avoid being whipsawed by the next headline, this is where you start. The cash flow does not care what happens in a negotiating room in Vienna.

Layer 2: The Pipes-and-Processing Layer

If the world needs more gas — for LNG terminals, for power generation, for industrial demand — it has to move through pipes, get processed, and get fractionated. Midstream is the gets-paid-anyway layer. Every molecule moving from the Permian to the Gulf Coast passes through this infrastructure. The owners collect a fee. They are not predicting commodity prices. They are counting flow. That is not a glamorous business. That is exactly the point.

Layer 3: The International Services Cycle

U.S. land drilling is mature, competitive, and price-sensitive. But international work — offshore, LNG infrastructure, Middle East unconventional — is longer-cycle, backlog-driven, and far more resilient than investors assume. If you want operating leverage to a multi-year capex catch-up, this is where it shows up. The companies built for multi-year international programs outperform in this environment. The ones built for weekly U.S. rig-count swings do not.

SPOTLIGHT: TARGA RESOURCES (TRGP)

Targa is the clearest expression of the toll-road thesis. It sits in the flow path between Permian Basin gas production and the Gulf Coast LNG terminals that need it. Every molecule of gas moving toward export has to be gathered, processed, and fractionated. Targa collects a fee on that process regardless of whether crude is at $70 or $95. The company is expanding capacity into a buildout that will run for years. You are not betting on an oil price. You are betting on gas moving from where it is produced to where it is needed. That is not a speculation. It is a physical reality.

WINNERS

PRESSURE POINTS

Risk here is price sensitivity and contract structure — not structural demand failure.

THE PAIR TRADE

If you want to express this thesis without guessing the next oil print: go long contracted gas infrastructure — Cheniere, Targa, Kinder Morgan — and short the most price-sensitive domestic activity expression, a U.S. land services name. The goal is not to predict what crude does tomorrow. It is to get paid on structural throughput and infrastructure buildout while hedging the part of the market that is most exposed to U.S. activity slowdown. One side has contracts. The other side has spot pricing. That asymmetry is the trade.

WHAT WOULD BREAK THIS THESIS

A hard global recession that destroys demand fast enough to overwhelm supply tightness. A policy shock that freezes LNG export approvals and stalls terminal buildout. A sudden, durable return of displaced supply that caps the price upside. And the long-term wildcard: a technology shock — solar and battery costs continuing to fall — that reduces dispatchable fuel demand faster than any realistic grid buildout timeline allows. None of these are likely in the near term. All of them are worth watching. The thesis does not require $90 oil. But it does require the world to keep doing what it is already doing: moving molecules, signing long contracts, and building infrastructure it delayed for a decade.

FIVE KEY TAKEAWAYS

1.    The villain in this story is 2014, not any war. A decade of underinvestment built a supply deficit that no ceasefire agreement will fix on a short timeline. The calendar controls the next few years of supply, not sentiment.

2.    LNG is a regime change, not a trade. Once a long-term take-or-pay contract is signed, the war can end, headlines can improve, and the cash flow shows up anyway. That is not a commodity bet. It is infrastructure.

3.    The toll collectors win in every scenario. Midstream companies get paid when molecules move — whether crude is at $70 or $100. That is the right mental model for this cycle: own necessity, not optimism.

4.    International services is where the operating leverage lives. U.S. land drilling is mature and price-sensitive. The multi-year international capex catch-up — offshore, LNG buildout, Middle East expansion — is longer cycle, backlog-driven, and more resilient than investors assume.

5.    Do not make this a macro call. The easiest way to blow credibility in energy investing is to anchor on a specific oil price. The thesis does not require heroic commodity assumptions. It requires the world to keep consuming what it already depends on.

The market pays you for cash flows, not for stories. In energy, the most durable cash flows belong to the companies that do not need to be right about the next headline. They just need the world to keep doing what it is already doing: moving molecules, signing long contracts, and building the infrastructure it delayed for a decade.

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Distributor: Foreside Fund Services | Investing involves risk including possible loss of principle.

Thanks to George Noble for giving me a good laugh…..

This is the issue…….

Thursday was interesting. It started off firmly in red when Trump’s speech Wednesday night talked about the war ending in weeks and bombing Iran back to the stone age. This spiked oil….

But, rates came down and the market flipped from red to green. That makes we wonder why. So a couple of potential thoughts…..

Friday we had a blowout jobs number. The market initially rallied on the good news, until it realized good news may actually be bad news. Better than expected jobs numbers may mean less of a chance the Fed lowers rates.

The memory trade is getting more complicated — and AI is the reason why

Memory chip pricing has been extraordinary — DRAM contract prices surged nearly 95% in the first quarter alone, driven by insatiable AI demand. But the second derivative is already slowing. Wall Street's sell-side is flagging Q1 as likely peak price growth, with Q2 gains expected to moderate to roughly 60% — still impressive, just less jaw-dropping. Sentiment on memory names has quietly begun to shift.

Last week I wrote about Google’s threat to memory. Now layer in a technology development that most investors haven't priced yet. Nvidia's Neural Texture Compression — a real, shipping technology — uses AI to shrink memory requirements by roughly 7x. In one demonstrated use case, a workload that consumed 6.5 GB of VRAM was compressed down to under 1 GB. The mechanism is elegant: instead of storing raw texture data, a tiny AI model learns to reconstruct it on the fly, dramatically cutting the memory footprint without meaningful quality loss.

Here's the tension worth watching. Today, this compression lives in gaming and graphics workloads — it doesn't directly reduce the HBM memory demand that's been driving DRAM pricing. But the directional signal is clear: AI-native compression is coming for every category of memory-intensive compute. If the same principle migrates into datacenter and inference workloads at scale, the memory supercycle narrative gets a lot messier. You'd have soaring demand from agentic AI on one side, and AI-driven efficiency gains eating into that demand on the other.

For now, the memory trade remains intact but increasingly fragile at the narrative level. The smart money is already watching the second derivative. The rest will catch up when Q2 pricing data prints softer than Q1 and the headlines read "memory growth slows." Don't confuse "still rising" with "still accelerating."

The UFO Fund That Owns Lockheed and Northrop

When Iran moved markets, defense names spiked hard. Lockheed, Northrop, L3Harris, Leidos, Boeing. They were already in UFOD. When you build a fund around tracking what's in our airspace, you end up holding the best aerospace and defense names on the market. That's not a coincidence — it's the thesis.

See the UFOD holdings. [thetruthisoutthereufod.com]

$MEMY Holdings Update:

We replaced $EXE ( ▲ 1.82% ) $ECL ( ▲ 1.49% ) $WCC ( ▲ 16.33% ) $HOOD ( ▲ 2.18% ) and added $RKLB ( ▲ 6.6% ) $MRCY ( ▲ 3.92% ) $CRCL ( ▼ 3.31% ) $CRDO ( ▼ 0.1% ) All 5% positions.


For a full list of MEMY holdings, visit:

https://incomeblastetfs.com/etf/memy

Distributor: Foreside Fund Services, LLC

Today’s stock is $AMD ( ▲ 3.63% )

After a big gap down in February it’s held it’s 200 day moving average, and had an undercut and rally March 30. Thursday it popped above the 50 day. These are both key levels that bulls would need it to stay above. If it does, then you would expect it to fill the gap.

I had the pleasure of talking to Dividend Degenerates on why I like put spreads better than covered calls for income…..

The H.E.A.T. (Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry and Theme) Formula is designed to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth.

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