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Table of Contents
🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now
Not a lot going on ahead of all the data remaining this week. We did see a bit of momentum sell off again
🧾 Trade Truce Boosts U.S. Markets: Industrial and Energy Sectors Among the Clear Winners
Markets cheered the newly agreed 15% baseline tariff for most European goods—substantially lower than earlier threats of 30–50%—while EU investment pledges and U.S. energy deals buoyed sentiment.
From a policy perspective, proponents argue the U.S. extracted strategic economic and geopolitical wins. Higher tariffs protect domestic manufacturers, while EU commitments inject capital into U.S. energy, aerospace, and defense sectors—all amid a backdrop of global trade stability
🎙 Why the U.S. Is Seen as the Big Winner
The deal caps most EU exports to the U.S. at a baseline 15% tariff, dramatically lower than earlier threats of up to 50% .
In exchange, the EU committed to purchasing $750 billion in U.S. energy products and investing roughly $600 billion in U.S. infrastructure and military goods .
Analysts in Europe—such as Berenberg—have described it as a lopsided arrangement, calling it a “win for Trump” since Washington extracted substantial concessions while Brussels gave up leverage
Sector Breakdown
Sector / Stock | Likely Impact |
|---|---|
Steel & Metals (e.g. NUE) | Up — tariff protection |
Defense & Energy | Up — EU purchasing commitments |
Semiconductors (e.g. NVDA) | Up — reshoring tailwinds |
Autos & Heavy Industry | Mixed — input cost pressure |
Consumer Discretionary | Caution — inflation risk |
✅ U.S. Benefit Zones
Domestic industrials and steelmakers: Firms like Nucor (NUE) and U.S. Steel (X) stand to gain pricing power due to protective tariffs and quota systems restricting EU metal exports .
Defense & energy suppliers: Benefiting from EU’s $750 bn in energy and military procurement, companies such as Lockheed Martin (LMT) and major LNG exporters see potential upside .
Semiconductors and industrial goods: U.S.-manufactured chips and machinery gain relative advantage amid reshoring momentum and reduced EU market competition
⚠️ Potential U.S. Headwinds
Downstream manufacturers and autos: Higher steel and aluminum costs may compress margins for U.S. automakers and construction-related sectors
Consumer price inflation: Elevated tariffs could raise input costs, weighing on consumer discretionary sectors and higher-cost goods .
❌ European Exporters Under Pressure
German automakers (e.g., Volkswagen, Daimler) face 15% U.S. tariffs on exports; European auto shares rose on deal optimism, but longer‑term pressure remains .
Pharmaceuticals and luxury goods: EU pharma and cosmetics could suffer reduced U.S. competitiveness due to new tariffs and uncertainty over reciprocity terms .
Critics would argue that tariffs remain inflationary, potentially dampening consumer demand and pressuring margin-leveraged firms. Long-term risks include retaliation if the EU renegotiates enforcement terms or if Trump escalates tariffs when targets aren't met
Investors appear rotating into industrial, energy, and export-supportive sectors. Tactically, overweight positions in U.S. steel, semiconductors, and defense may outperform, while underweighting tariff-sensitive or import-heavy areas could hedge downside risk. Monitoring upcoming Fed commentary and earnings from tech giants will be crucial for deciding whether optimism holds or pivots
The U.S.–EU deal announced on July 27, 2025, is being interpreted by markets and analysts as a clear short‑term win for the U.S.—providing tariff headwinds for European exporters while delivering strategic investment commitments. U.S. markets responded with relief and modest gains, particularly in defense, energy, semiconductors, and holiday‑protected industrials. However, inflationary risks and the possibility of future escalations mean markets should remain agile.
🏆 Top 10 U.S. Stock Winners from the U.S.–EU Trade Deal
Rank | Stock (Ticker) | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | NVIDIA ($NVDA) | 🔟 | Biggest winner. Zero EU tariffs on AI tech exports + sovereign AI buildout = massive structural tailwind. Europe can't build AI without NVIDIA. Simple, direct, and explosive. |
2 | Lockheed Martin ($LMT) | 9.5 | $600B in EU defense spending + NATO-centric posture benefits LMT disproportionately. Already embedded. Export boom + security policy = sustained backlog growth. |
3 | Eos Energy ($EOSE) | 9.3 | Under-the-radar long-duration U.S.-made battery storage name. Grid-scale EU demand + energy sovereignty push + zero tariffs = asymmetric upside. |
4 | Palantir ($PLTR) | 9.1 | Data sovereignty is now a policy, not just a talking point. PLTR is embedded in EU ministries and NATO. Export clearance boosts its “default OS” status. |
5 | Broadcom ($AVGO) | 8.9 | EU telco/cloud modernization needs Broadcom’s switching and fiber tech. Already key to AI infra, now it becomes a backbone for sovereign compute builds. |
6 | Micron ($MU) | 8.7 | Only U.S. memory player capable of scaling with hyperscaler demand in Europe. Doesn’t need new wins—just volume. Micron's biggest problem just got fixed: demand certainty. |
7 | Oklo ($OKLO) | 8.5 | Speculative but real. Microreactors are one of the few viable paths to clean baseload power for AI data centers. Export channels open; now has geopolitical backing. |
8 | Tesla ($TSLA) | 8.3 | Tariff clarity helps Berlin Gigafactory. Energy storage exports also benefit. Less headline upside than NVDA/PLTR, but tangible operational tailwinds. |
9 | Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD) | 8.0 | AMD gains as the #2 AI chip supplier and the only CPU alternative to Intel with major EU contracts. Benefits less directly than NVDA, but still a clear net winner. |
10 | ASML ($ASML) (Dutch) / Nebius | 7.8 | ASML isn’t U.S.-based, but second-order wins benefit U.S. semiconductor exports. Nebius becomes a cross-border AI partner—but watch for commercial traction. |
🧠 Strategy Notes
Why $NVDA is #1: No other company touches sovereign AI, infrastructure, export enablement, and political clearance all at once. Europe cannot build without it. Every dollar in the deal flows through NVIDIA chips.
Why $LMT is so high: The defense side of this deal is underappreciated. It’s not just about tariffs. The EU just signed up to make America its arsenal—in wartime and peacetime.
Why $EOSE beats $TSLA: Because grid storage is now policy-driven, and EOSE is one of the few U.S. options with the tech, timing, and made-in-America credentials. Tesla benefits, but EOSE depends on it—thus greater asymmetry.
📈 Stock Corner
Today’s stock is the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT)….
Last year I did very well on individual Argentine names as their stock market ramped on Millei’s policies. As markets always do, it has come back to earth this year, but on Friday it pulled an undercut and rally at the 200 day.
📬 In Case You Missed It
Launched Friday!!!!
2 new T-REX ETFs are coming tomorrow! 🎉
$CRWU, The T-REX 2X Long $CRWV Daily Target ETF
$SMUP, The T-REX 2X Long $SMR Daily Target ETFAmplify your trading with T-REX!
Fund Prospectuses:
sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archiv…— #REX Shares (#@REXShares)
6:18 PM • Jul 24, 2025
🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help
ETFs: The Antidote to Wall Street
Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know
Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy
Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled
Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge
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