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Trump’s Plan For the Economy and How It Impacts Your Investments

Thursday April 24, 2-3pm EST

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Rebel Finance Podcast-Episode 7 is out, we talk to former NBA player Kris Humphries about his post basketball businesses, crypto, and investing.

Today, Jeremy Vreeland and I will be debuting our second podcast “On The Money” at 11AM EST. We will cover markets and stocks we are buying or shorting.

Market Recap

There are a couple of key investing rules I live by that have served me well. The first is to trade based on what you see, not what you think. It is very easy to believe you are right about a thesis and the market is wrong. People like John Paulson and Michael Burry have made a lot of money that way, but they also had a lot of pain before they were proved right. However, this rule goes out the window ahead of a binary event, like “Liberation Day”. I’ve noted in the past couple of issues that the market looked to be finding a near term bottom and yesterday the whispers coming out of Washington were dovish on tariffs. It could have been easy to start to load up on the long side ahead of Trump, that would have been gambling.

As to what I see now, SPY is currently below the important $550 level……

Zooming out to a weekly chart you don’t see a lot of support until $500…..

Big players obviously got out over their skis on tariffs being not as big a deal, those guys will be forced to rejigger this morning. As we saw on DeepSeek day, that tends to get ugly, like yelling fire in a crowded theater. Where we go from there we will see. If you have hedges in place you can wait and see how things turn out. Could have dip buyers, but that could also just be exit liquidity for big hedge funds.

I have been talking for a while about the only two Trump trades I see out there—Long Term Treasuries (TLT) and European Defense Stocks (EUAD). In the category of better to be lucky than good, I added to my TLT position yesterday. Both are green this morning in a sea of red.

From Jefferies this morning…..

Meanwhile, a couple of key takeaways from Liberation Day….

-Bessent said that yesterday’s announcement was a ceiling and wouldn’t be raised.

Bessent Urges Against Retaliation, Says ‘Wait and See’ on Talks-Bloomberg

-Messaging has been awful, both in what the administration has leaked out and what the media is reporting. Uncertainty doesn’t help.

-The reciprocal tariffs don’t appear to be reciprocal at all, it looks like they are actually targeting trade surpluses. Going back to crappy messaging, this wasn’t explained.

-Because they are targeting surpluses, the most pain will likely be for companies that rely on imports for their supply chain (see below)

Here are my first thoughts on all of this. Trump can spark strong emotions in people, that’s fine, but don’t let it impact your investments. I am seeing some people saying that he didn’t know that he was doing tariffs based on trade surpluses. That’s possible, but Bessent would have known. Did he communicate it badly or intentionally mislead? Who knows, I’m sure someone will be asking that today. I think of Trump from the standpoint of the Art of the Deal. Foreign countries could try to retaliate, but at the end of the day where are they going to replace the US consumer? I think that Trump thinks they are going to cave. Will they?

Trump will ‘buckle under pressure’ if Europe bands together over tariffs, German economy minister says-CNBC.com

China urges U.S. to ‘immediately’ cancel reciprocal tariffs, vows countermeasures-CNBC.com

Who knows, lots of uncertainty still to come. Oh, and meanwhile……

Microsoft Pulls Back on Data Centers From Chicago to Jakarta-Bloomberg

In light of President Donald Trump's recent announcement imposing significant tariffs on imports—ranging from a baseline 10% on all countries to higher rates on specific nations (e.g., 34% on China, 32% on Taiwan, 46% on Vietnam, and 26% on India)—major hedge funds are anticipated to adjust their portfolios accordingly. Specifically, they may sell stocks of companies heavily reliant on imported materials or with substantial international sales exposure, while favoring companies that utilize U.S. suppliers and primarily serve domestic customers.

Companies Likely to Face Selling Pressure:

1. Apple Inc. (AAPL): Relies heavily on manufacturing in China, making it vulnerable to the 34% tariff on Chinese imports.

2. Nike Inc. (NKE): Sources a significant portion of its products from Vietnam, Indonesia, and China, regions now subject to increased tariffs.

3. Tesla Inc. (TSLA): Imports various components from overseas and has substantial international sales, exposing it to both higher import costs and potential retaliatory tariffs.

4. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN): Sources about 25% of its retail products from China, making it susceptible to increased costs due to the new tariffs.

5. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Relies on Taiwanese manufacturers for semiconductor production, facing a 32% tariff on imports from Taiwan.

6. Walmart Inc. (WMT): As the largest U.S. importer, Walmart sources extensively from China and other Asian countries, making it highly susceptible to increased

7. Target Corporation (TGT): Another major retailer with significant import volumes from tariff-affected countries, potentially impacting profit margins.

8. The Home Depot Inc. (HD): Sources a variety of products from international suppliers, including China, which may lead to increased costs due to tariffs.

9. Lowe's Companies Inc. (LOW): Similar to Home Depot, Lowe's imports a substantial amount of its inventory, making it vulnerable to tariff-induced cost increases.

10. Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR): Heavily dependent on Chinese imports, Dollar Tree has warned that tariffs could hurt sales and raise costs.

11. Restoration Hardware (RH): Sources 72% of its products from Asia, making it particularly vulnerable to the new tariffs.

12. General Motors Company (GM): Faces 25% tariffs on imported cars and parts, which could impact production costs and pricing.

13. Ford Motor Company (F): Similar to GM, Ford is affected by the 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and components.

Companies Potentially Attracting Buying Interest:

1. The Hershey Company (HSY): Sources the majority of its raw materials domestically and focuses primarily on the U.S. market, making it less exposed to international tariffs.

2. General Mills Inc. (GIS): Produces many of its products in the U.S. and has a strong domestic customer base.

3. Dollar General Corporation (DG): Operates primarily within the U.S. and sources a significant portion of its merchandise from domestic suppliers.

4. Kroger Co. (KR): A leading U.S. grocery chain that sources most of its products domestically and caters to American consumers.

5. PulteGroup Inc. (PHM): A U.S.-based home construction company that primarily uses domestic materials and labor, focusing on the American housing market.

6. O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY): Sources a significant portion of its auto parts domestically and operates primarily within the U.S., reducing exposure to international tariffs.

7. AutoZone Inc. (AZO): Similar to O'Reilly, AutoZone focuses on the U.S. market with a supply chain less reliant on imports.

8. Lennar Corporation (LEN): A major U.S. homebuilder that utilizes domestic suppliers and caters to the U.S. housing market.

9. D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI): Another leading home construction company with a focus on U.S. projects and domestic supply chains.

10. Campbell Soup Company (CPB): Produces food products primarily in the U.S. with a strong domestic customer base, minimizing tariff exposure.

Strategic Considerations:

Investors should conduct thorough due diligence, considering each company's supply chain logistics, revenue sources, and the potential for cost pass-through to consumers. Additionally, the broader economic implications of the tariffs, including potential retaliatory measures from affected countries, should be factored into investment decisions.

Note: The above assessments are based on current information and are subject to change as companies adjust their operations and supply chains in response to evolving trade policies.

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