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Table of Contents
🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now
Another rough day for momentum stocks, and now the real fireworks start. Looking at the implied volatility of SPY puts it seems traders except Friday’s jobs number to be the main event, but lots of data over the next few days that could be market moving.
Added a bunch of hedges yesterday just in case. As I said before, with markets up here, and hopefully with all sorts of profits, it’s better to not be a pig ahead of so much potential market moving news.
FOMC is today and they won’t be doing anything, the most interesting part will be seeing potential dissent. Powell will likely talk about uncertainty due to tariffs. Again, the implied volatility on SPY puts yesterday wasn’t signaling any fear from traders.
🌲 “We Have All the Trees We Need”: Trump’s Next Big Industrial Theme Is Lumber
The energy to fuel AI may be nuclear and natural gas, but the infrastructure to house AI—and America’s broader reshoring agenda—is still built from wood.
This week, the Trump administration made clear that its next target in the industrial revival plan is lumber. Trump is calling for:
A 25% increase in national forest timber harvests
Revoking the Roadless Rule, opening 59M acres to road building
New tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber, on top of existing duties
A broader framing of lumber as a national security asset, similar to moves in steel and copper
This has created a regional and thematic bifurcation in potential market winners and losers.
✅ Winners: The U.S. Timber Rebuild Trade
Ticker | Company | Rating (1–10) | Why it Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
$WY | Weyerhaeuser | 9 | Largest private timberland owner in the U.S.; directly benefits from both increased logging and higher lumber prices. CEO is explicitly bullish on Trump’s support. |
$PCH | PotlatchDeltic | 8 | Operates in ID, AR, and MN; strong timberland exposure + lumber manufacturing. High sensitivity to log pricing. |
Canfor (U.S. operations) | 7 | While Canadian, owns Southern U.S. mills. If duties hit Canadian mills harder, U.S.-based assets gain value. | |
$STLD | Steel Dynamics | 6 | Possible secondary beneficiary if the infrastructure and housing push reignites lumber and steel demand. |
Private | B&G Logging, WKO, Stimson | — | Ground-zero beneficiaries if Forest Service output rises. Public proxies are limited, but these are names to watch for asset acquisitions or roll-up strategies. |
$UFPI | UFP Industries | 6 | Largest U.S. wood packaging company; benefits indirectly from stable domestic lumber supply and lower volatility. |
$LPX | Louisiana-Pacific | 5 | U.S. South focused, but might benefit from overall lumber policy tailwinds if building picks up. |
❌ Losers: The Canadian Lumber Complex
Ticker | Company | Rating (1–10) | Why it’s at Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
Western Forest Products | 3 | High exposure to U.S. export market, heavily reliant on BC forests, already hit by wildfires and cost structure. | |
Interfor Corp. | 4 | Large Canadian operations, though diversified with U.S. mills. Margins likely pressured if tariffs spike. | |
Canadian Banks | 4 | Indirect exposure through loan portfolios to lumber towns, especially in BC and Quebec. | |
$NAIL | Direxion Homebuilder Bull ETF | 5 | Builders hate lumber tariffs. If prices rise, margins compress, especially on entry-level housing. |
$LEN, $DHI, $TOL | Homebuilders | 5–6 | Mixed bag. If supply increases in U.S., input costs could fall long term, but tariff-driven price spikes could hit near term. |
⚖️ The Market Math
Current U.S. timber harvest: ~11 billion board feet/year
Trump proposal: +25% from federal land = ~1% boost nationally
Softwood imports from Canada: ~24% of U.S. consumption
Pending duties: Set to double to 34% (before any new Trump tariffs)
The impact on prices may be muted nationally but material locally—especially in Pacific Northwest timber counties like Skamania, where mills are running below capacity and depend on federal land for supply.
Even if Trump’s moves don’t shift national lumber dynamics dramatically, regional economic revival stories will play well politically—and that can mean upside for companies like Weyerhaeuser or PotlatchDeltic who sit at the intersection of forests, mills, and federal leases.
📉 Countertrend Trades?
This theme also creates a contrarian short thesis:
Short Canadian lumber producers if tariffs spike further
Short U.S. builders temporarily if lumber prices jump faster than they can pass through costs
Short ESG-first timber REITs if Trump eases environmental regulations and opens up more competitive supply
🧭 Strategic Summary
Trump’s playbook is clear: Energy, steel, copper, and now lumber—rebuild domestic supply chains, restrict foreign access, declare industrial materials a national security issue.
Regionally, this is a rural revival story. Politically friendly, economically meaningful—especially in Oregon, Washington, Idaho.
Weyerhaeuser ($WY) is your top pick. Owns the trees. Runs the mills. Lean cost structure. Trump tailwind.
FWIW Citibank lowered estimates on WY yesterday but kept it at a buy…..
We’re lowering FY ’25-26 est. to reflect a weaker price/vol recovery in both Wood Products & Timberlands. We now model 3Q EPS near breakeven, with a sequential recovery into ’26 as Canadian anti-dumping duties nearly triple. With updated est. our target ticks down to $30; we remain Buy-rated with Lumber prices near cash cost support. RL prices have recently stabilized around ~$430/kbft after ~3 months of decline; additional policy catalysts (section 232 investigation, possible voluntary Canadian export quota) could further tension the market. While we are concerned about the impact of OBBB on solar & wind projects, mgmt. sees other sources of upside from the bill (100% bonus depreciation, increased TRS provision from 20% to 25%). With WY shares near 5-year lows we see value and signs of a Wood Products bottom; Buy.
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Consider adding BEGS to your portfolio: rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-crypto…
Distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.
— #Matthew Tuttle (#@TuttleCapital)
3:47 PM • Jul 9, 2025
📈 Stock Corner
Yesterday’s stock was ARGT. In yesterday’s research note JP Morgan reiterated their overweight in Argentina. Today’s stock is GDS Holdings (GDS)……
This is a Chinese data center stock. Typically when investors want to play AI in China it’s BABA and BIDU, this one is below the radar screen. I’ve been in this one for a while, and I am probably going to talk about China in a newsletter this week, but this morning Jefferies came out with an interesting note on it.
The bottom line is China approved a new REIT structure for data centers that could benefit the stock.
📬 In Case You Missed It
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