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Oil ripping higher has turned into an ugly, headline-driven gut punch for gold miners. Brent is now trading like a war-risk asset again, and when crude spikes, the market immediately does the same lazy thing it always does: assume miners’ margins get crushed and sell first, ask questions later. Meanwhile, gold is still hovering around the $5,000 neighborhood — yet the miners have been treated like they’re back in the “razor-thin margins” era.

Here’s the real setup: this drawdown looks less like “the gold bull case is broken” and more like a classic de-grossing + diesel panic combo. When volatility hits, the market sells anything liquid, and miners are liquid. Add the fear that oil stays high, and you get a fast, ugly unwind — even in companies that are still printing cash.

Gold miners are basically a leveraged bet on the spread between:

Gold price
minus
All-in sustaining costs (AISC)

Oil mainly matters because it hits the cost line through diesel, power, transport, and consumables. But here’s the part investors consistently get wrong: oil has to move a lot to truly wreck the economics — especially when gold is already elevated.

A simple way to think about it:

Even if you assume oil sticks around $100+ for a while and AISC rises high-single digits to low-double digits, that’s not an existential blow when gold prices are still historically extreme. It’s a margin haircut, not a margin collapse.

Because this isn’t just an “oil cost” story — it’s also a macro/positioning story:

If you’re long-term bullish on gold, this is the zone where you want to start acting like a collector. Not all-in, not hero trades — but scaling in as fear peaks and liquidity selling does the heavy lifting for you.

That said: you can’t buy “miners” blindly. In environments like this, quality spreads out fast. The market stops paying for hope and starts paying for:

If you’re positioning for a rebound, think in tiers:

Tier 1: “Survive anything” quality (core holdings)
These are the names that can absorb a cost shock and still compound value:

Tier 2: Torque, but still real companies (tactical adds)
These can move more when sentiment snaps back, but you want to stay selective:

Tier 3: Optionality / high-beta pain trades (small sizing only)
This is where the biggest percentage rebounds happen… and also where you get carried out if oil stays high, credit tightens, or gold rolls over again:

Likely winners

Likely losers

You don’t need perfection. You need the rate of bad news to slow:

When those conditions show up, you usually get that “snap-back” rally where miners outperform the metal — because they’re coming off a sentiment low, not a fundamentals low.

Oil’s spike is pressuring risk assets broadly, with Brent jumping into the ~$110–$115 range as Middle East conflict risk re-priced energy and inflation expectations.

Gold, meanwhile, has remained near the $5,000 area in recent sessions, which means miner margins still have an unusually large cushion versus historical norms.

The miner selloff looks driven by three forces more than one: (1) diesel/power cost fears, (2) “oil up = inflation up = yields/dollar up” macro repricing, and (3) forced selling/de-grossing in a volatility regime. Reuters noted precious-metals miners fell sharply in the risk-off tape alongside higher oil and a more cautious Fed backdrop.

On the technical/positioning side, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has slid back into the high-$80s area (reported around ~$88.7 as of March 18), consistent with the “support zone” narrative many traders are watching.

Bottom line: the key question isn’t “does oil hurt miners?” (it does) — it’s whether the selloff is pricing an AISC shock big enough to permanently impair margins, even while gold remains elevated. If oil stabilizes and the dollar/real-rate pressure eases, quality miners and lower-cost models (especially royalty/streaming structures) are set up best for the rebound.

We had a feeling that two up days heading into Powell could mean a pullback. We also continue to feel that it is going to be hard to sustain any type of upward momentum with oil prices around $100 and yields spiking. It didn’t help that PPI was hotter than expected.

Powell summed up the problem best…..

"The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain."

I am starting to get more interested in hard assets again—-gold miners (see above), copper (see below), maybe some other metals.

This morning’s selloff in MU could also be an opportunity to buy into the memory names. They are extended regardless of how ugly today is though, but perhaps barbelling them with some beaten up hard asset names wouldn’t be such a bad idea.

Today’s stock is Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)…..

I’m looking to get back into commodity stocks. Would be looking for an undercut and rally at the March 9th low ($55.50). It’s down pre market so I may also watch support around $52.50.

The H.E.A.T. (Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry and Theme) Formula is designed to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2026 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.